Good morning, hockey fans! I will be pinch hitting for Alex Maclean today while he is away on vacation. Keep an eye out on Saturdays for my usual column, The Journey, which follows the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

*

Although it seemed likely someone would take a dice roll on Filip Zadina, the 6th-overall pick from 2018, he passed through waivers yesterday and will stay with the Red Wings for now. There was a time when people were dumping on Ottawa for taking Brady Tkachuk at 4th that year instead of Zadina. That sure sounds odd these days.

Not that Red Wings fans need any more salt in the wound, but it is remarkable to think that Quinn Hughes was taken right after him, and Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson were taken 10th and 12th respectively.

In all fairness, the forward depth wasn't great in 2018 outside of Svechnikov and Tkachuk, and there were a number of other high-profile busts that year, including Vitali Kravtsov (NYR, 9th), Grigori Denisenko (FLA, 15th), Ryan Merkley (SJS, 21st). But imagine the impact on those franchises if Ottawa had gone for Zadina and Brady fell to the Wings.

*

Lots of buzz about the "Yzerplan" recently. After some safe early-first round draft picks (Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson) and a number of eyebrow-raising free agent signings, it feels like confidence in Stevie Y is on the downswing lately.

Detroit's last 2 Free Agencies:

JT Compher — $5.1m x 5 years
Justin Holl — $3.4m x 3 years
Gostisbhere — $4.1m x 1 year
Ben Chiarot — $4.8m x 4 years
David Perron — $4.8m x 2 years
Andrew Copp — $5.6m x 5 years
Ville Husso — $4.8 x 3 years

How we feeling about the Yzerplan? pic.twitter.com/DlV5NvyNIu

— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) July 3, 2023

I like some of those signings better than others. I also think that some elements of the fanbase feel that Detroit is closer to contention than they actually are. Assuming they are still at least 2-3 years away from making a serious push, most of those contracts are just depth for the bridge years and not a big deal. Those Copp and Compher signings do feel long and pricy, though.

The worst addition so far may have been Ben Chiarot. As a Mo Seider owner in several leagues, I was not impressed by him ball-and-chaining my star young defenseman for the first half of 2022-23 until Jake Walman showed up doing the griddy like a breath of fresh air. Outside of Robby Fabbri, Chiarot had the worst relative play-driving numbers on the Wings last year. He faced a high quality of competition, sure, but that bubble is so orange it is almost brown.

Compare that to Zadina's light blue bubble at the bottom, which indicates that he was driving play pretty well in a very sheltered role without a lot of offensive deployment. As Cliffy pointed out yesterday, Zadina has not had many sustained opportunities to play with Detroit's best players.

*

Will David Reinbacher turn out to be 2023's Mo Seider? Montreal fans have to hope so now after GM Kent Hughes passed on Matvei Michkov (PHI) in favor of the young defender. On top of Carey Price seemingly forgetting his name, Reinbacher then had to deal with a ton of backlash from the fanbase. People forget sometimes that these are 17- and 18-year-old kids.

Here is a heartwarming gesture intended to balance out that criticism:

It worked out guys! ❤️ I gave the book of comments to David Reinbacher, he kept saying "WOW!" By looking at the comments, he was really happy, thank you to EVERYONE ❤️🫶🏻 #GoHabsGo https://t.co/ophd90Jv08 pic.twitter.com/PG1ERrmEZF

— ☁️ 𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒂 (@suzukipizza) July 2, 2023

Reinbacher is one of the most NHL-ready prospects from this year's draft class. While he is unlikely to make the team right out of camp in September, stranger things have happened. At Montreal's development camp this week, we have been getting a glimpse of what the future looks like on the Canadiens' blue line as Reinbacher developed chemistry with Lane Hutson.

Hutson is by far the best player on the ice early on in this scrimmage.

Just made a beautiful play to Reinbacher who pinched and nearly scored the first goal of the game.

— Habs Chronicle (@HabsChronicle) July 4, 2023

"I've been clicking with him all week…" – Lane Hutson on David Reinbacher

After he was told Reinbacher called him the next Cale Makar he said Reinbacher's the next David Reinbacher.

"He's going to be really good"

— Jared Book (@jaredbook) July 4, 2023

*

There has been some "he said, she said" drama this week over in Anaheim. After John Gibson was quoted as saying, "I am not playing another game for the Anaheim Ducks," which of course spread like wildfire through every quarter of the universe, Gibson's agent fired back with this statement on "Frank Seravelli's False Claim Regarding John Gibson":

pic.twitter.com/OVpGCSx3uW

— KO Sports, Inc. (@KOSportsInc) July 4, 2023

Shots fired. It made me giggle seeing the phrase "Nasty Knuckles" in such a formal document. I also noticed that the Gibson camp is not denying that he said those words, just disputing who he said them to. The statement insists that he "never stated to any member of the Anaheim Ducks front office any such statement."

That makes me think there might be some truth to this storyline—although that is of course pure, inflammatory speculation. It seems a bit strange that Gibson would want out just as the Ducks are beginning to accumulate a serious talent pool at all positions (Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson, Olen Zelleger, Pavel Mintyukov, Lukas Dostal, etc.).

On the other hand, perhaps enough is enough.

This year, John Gibson became the first goalie since 2009 to allow 200+ goals against in a season.#NHL | #FlyTogether pic.twitter.com/WzVR4QCDac

— Hockey Reference (@hockey_ref) July 3, 2023

*

If Gibson were to depart, Dostal stocks would get a serious boost, even if they brought in a veteran replacement. The young Czech posted a 62% Quality Start rate last year across 19 games and posted an impressive 0.912 save percentage for the San Diego Gulls (AHL), who were last in the American league by a country mile.

Neat call-back: remember when Dostal scored a goal a couple years ago in the AHL?

Goalie goal!! Anaheim Ducks prospect Lukas Dostal became the first goaltender in organization history (NHL or AHL level) to score a goal, to seal a 5-2 win Wednesday night at Colorado. Dostal also made a career-high 50 save pic.twitter.com/mIAiy5osel

📢 advertisement:

— BucciOT.Com (@Buccigross) March 3, 2022

*

After acquiring Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov over the offseason, Columbus sure has a log jam on the back end now. That is a great problem for them but a challenge for fantasy. Assuming everyone is healthy, we might see something like this to begin the year:

Werenski – Severson

Provorov – Boqvist

Bean – Peeke

That is a ton of speed and offensive capability, as Werenski, Severson, Bean, and Boqvist are all mobile defenders constantly looking for opportunities to join the rush. Time will tell if Provorov, Andrew Peeke, Eric Gudbranson, Nick Blankenburg, and Tim Berni can hold things down on the back end well enough for Columbus to come out ahead.

But assuming everyone is healthy, that is nine pro defencemen for six jobs—not counting any of the talented youngsters working their way up though the organization, including Denton Mateychuk, Stanislav Svozil, Corson Ceulemans, and most notably, David Jiricek. While the first three will ply their wares in the AHL this year, Jiricek's 38 points in 55 AHL games suggest he is ready to take his booming slap shot and high-end all-around game to the highest level.

Unless there is another off-season trade or two, however, the numbers don't seem to be in his favor. He'll see call ups, but don't count on NHL production from Jiricek yet in 2023-24.

*

Everyone wants a piece of the Buffalo pie in fantasy these days. Most of the high-end assets (Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, Devon Levi) are prohibitively expensive. But I have been wondering lately if Peyton Krebs might be a sneaky, cheap way to get in on the action.

If my own leagues are any indication, Krebs does not carry a ton of fantasy value right now. The 22 year old scored at a 29-point pace in 2022-23 playing just shy of 14 minutes a game. But he is still 65 games away from his Breakout Threshold, so it's not like he missed his moment or anything. He spent most of last year toiling in the bottom-six stapled to former all-star Zemgus Girgensons and team captain Kyle Okposo.

Krebs has a bit of an Alex Newhook feel to him, so it is fair to wonder whether his scoring upside is somewhat limited, but this is a kid who put up strong WHL numbers (171 points in 126 games) and then transitioned smoothly to the AHL (20 in 20) before joining the Sabres full time. He has not yet been used in a scoring role at the NHL level yet, and he is versatile enough to contribute in other ways, but he scored buckets of points at every other level and has the skill to do it in the NHL too.

If you need a bit more of a push, note that Krebs provides an extra boost in leagues that count hits (1.26 per game) and face-off wins (3.39 per game). His success rate at the dot (45%) will need to improve, but it is a positive sign for his development that he has been able to stick down the middle so far for the Sabres.

*

Wild West writer Grant Campbell released his updated team ratings after the dust settled on free agency, and I was surprised to see Pittsburgh at the top of the heap:

Team ratings pre and post-Free Agency.
All teams have an average rating for goaltending at the moment. pic.twitter.com/D3OKjqY1jO

— Grant Campbell (@gampbler15) July 4, 2023

We know their stars are going to miss time, but if everything comes together could they have enough left in the tank for one more kick at the can? A group headlined by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang, and Tristan Jarry should never be dismissed. But their depth is questionable, and their prospect pipeline is downright sad.

One name I will be watching with interest is Ty Smith. Although he was likely rushed to the NHL by New Jersey, he had insane scoring totals in junior—he did far better than Krebs in the WHL as a defenseman, for reference—transitioned well to the AHL, and has held his own at the NHL level too.

If his statline last year over a small, nine-game sample was any indication, there could be some hidden fantasy value here. He posted a 36-point pace on top of three shots, two hits, and half-a-hit per game.

*

There has been some unfortunate news in women's hockey this past week. In case you haven't heard, here is a quick way to catch up on what happened and what it means for the sport:

Women's Hockey: what's happening and why it's a big goddamn deal (a thread)

— z – Lydia (@bubblyhalseylrh) June 30, 2023

More gender parity in the sport is way past due. We need a Justin Trudeau moment but for women's hockey. More visibility and stability for professional female players would go a long way toward inspiring young girls and establishing better infrastructure at all levels.

*

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.