Hey everyone, Peter Harling here filling in for Ian Gooding while he enjoys some well-deserved vacation time. For those who don't know me, I am the Managing Editor over at DobberProspects. That's right, get ready for some prospect talk!

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I just returned from Nashville attending the NHL Draft and have some thoughts to share on the experience. First off Connor Bedard. No question he was going number one and that he is regarded as a "generational player" the likes of Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon or possibly even Connor McDavid. The question everyone wants to know is how high do you draft him? His dynasty value is off the charts, but will he produce points right out of the draft? The past few years first overall selection has failed to do so. Last year Juraj Slafkovsky played in only 39 games scoring 10 points. Owen Power returned to the NCAA in 2021, Alexis Lafreniere had 21 points in 56 games in 2020. Jack Hughes only managed 21 points in 61 games after the 2019 draft. Arguably the best immediate impact from the draft in the past five years was in 2018 when Rasmus Dahlin scored 44 points as a defenseman through a full 82 games season.

But comparing apples to apples lets look at what some of the players Bedard is being compared to did as rookies. Auston Matthews kicked in the front door of the NHL with a four-goal statement game in his first career game and finished the year with 34 goals and 69 points in 82 games.

Connor McDavid was impactful day-one as well with 48 points in 45 games, just over a point per game as a rookie. He followed that up with his first 100 point season.

So, what does this mean for Bedard? In the latest Top 300 Keeper League Skater rankings by Dobber, he ranks Bedard eighth overall. That is some elite company, and it means you should pick him in the top ten range or even higher if you are starting a keeper league. I would forecast Bedard to score at least 60 points, but probably closer to the neighbourhood of 30 goals and 80 points as a rookie.

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Hey buddy how did that work out for you? pic.twitter.com/x2GL0edHzt

— Peter Harling🏒 (@pharling) June 29, 2023

The draft really began with the second pick, and the odds-on favorite was Adam Fantilli, but the Ducks went with Leo Carlsson, allowing Fantilli to be snapped up by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Fantilli has quickly put to bed any concerns he would return to Michigan for a sophomore year. He will be inserted into the NHL and be given the opportunity to center a line with either or both Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. If I am in a prospect draft, I am taking Fantilli second overall based on the upside of his immediate opportunity in Columbus. Even if he does not supplant Boone Jenner as the number one center this year, he still likely does no worse than second line center between Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko. He should be a lock for 20 goals and 25 assists.

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The top defenseman selected was David Reinbacher, fifth overall to the Montreal Canadiens. While I think this was not a great selection you can't blame the kid. Montreal fans may have preferred Matvei Michkov, but I got the sense that after meeting with teams before the Draft, he was calling his shot and may not have reported to Montreal, or a few other teams. Even if that were so, there were still better options on the board, I'm looking at you Ryan Leonard.

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Speaking of Ryan Leonard, he is a player I had ranked higher than most and certainly higher than the eight overall. I think his impact at the NHL will be tremendous, he has it all. Size, mobility, hockey sense, compete, playmaking and finishing ability. His role with the US National Team asked him to be a physical goal scorer, but do not underestimate his puck skills and playmaking ability.

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Talking to many scouts at the draft, there were a lot of opinions that the best defenseman in the draft may turn out to be Dmitri Simashev, the 6-4 fleet footed Russian. He is a very raw and long-term project, but his upside could be tremendous. It will take him time to realize his massive potential in the NHL and his fantasy upside may not match his NHL upside, but if you want to take a bit of a gamble, and can wait up to five years, the payoff could be juicy. The same goes for their other first round selection, another big Russian in Daniil But.

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Fun story, while travelling home from the Draft, my flight to Toronto was packed with hockey media, scouts, and players. Unfortunately, the flight was delayed several hours. Lucky for me my dynasty league began our prospect draft that day and I was able to follow that. My pick was coming up fast and as I was striking off drafted players from my list, I had to choose who my picks was going to be. My options included Gabe Perreault, Quentin Musty, Daniil But to name a few. But this league is a banger league, and my team is weak on RW prospects. One of the people waiting for the same flight as me was none other than Winnipeg Jets first round pick Colby Barlow. I made the easy choice to select Barlow. He was sitting right across from me with his family, so I went over, introduced myself and congratulated him on being drafted, twice. I told him my fantasy draft is going on and I had just selected him 14^th overall. We all have fun stories from drafts of years previous which we tell over and over again over drinks and this is one that I will tell many times.

The pick is in. With the 14th overall selection I picked this guy.
Didn't have a hat with my team logo but we're looking forward to winning some 'ships
Thanks for being a sport Colby https://t.co/SrOzLNgTWg pic.twitter.com/jY6cl1EuUl

— Peter Harling🏒 (@pharling) July 1, 2023

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Another activity I did while waiting for my flight was monitoring the players and prospects that were not made qualifying offers and then became free agents. This year's list seemed bigger and better than ever.

Players of interest not QO and now UFAs
Daniel Sprong
Cal Foote
Rasmussen Asplund
Isaac Ratcliffe
Markus Nurmi
Sam Steel
Mike McLeod
Jesper Boqvist
Nathan Bastian
Nolan Patrick
Tyson Jost
Kale Clague
Morgan Geekie
Lias Andersson
Zack MacEwen
Jaret Anderson-Dolan
Aiden Dudas

— Peter Harling🏒 (@pharling) June 30, 2023

The biggest standout by far on this list is Daniel Sprong. After scoring 21 goals in a bottom six role, averaging 11:25 minutes per game Sprong established himself as an NHL player and a fantasy relevant one as well. The Detroit Red Wings signed Sprong to a one year $2 Million contract and I can see him playing a bigger role in Detroit and building on his 21 goal and 46-point breakout. He is still a cap friendly bargain, but that could change next year when he becomes a RFA again.

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Looking for a deep cut prospect for your fantasy league? Noel Hoefenmayer is a 24-year-old defenseman who was drafted by the Arizona Coyotes in 2017 in the fourth round. The Coyotes never signed him, and he finished his junior career in the OHL with the Ottawa 67's scoring 26 goals and 82 points in 58 games. The following two seasons he played in the Toronto system on AHL contracts and had a breakout year in the AHL scoring 38 points in 65 games with 114 PIM's. He was the Marlies leading scorer among defence and the team's number one D. The Edmonton Oilers were impressed enough to sign him to a one-year ELC. He will be waiver exempt and will almost certainly play out the 2023-24 season in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors as their top defenseman, but he is playing his way into an NHL look in a similar fashion to Darren Raddysh. There are a lot of similarities between the two, and Raddysh took full advantage of injuries to the Lightning defense in the playoffs to get a look and make an impression.

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Here are some recent prospect signings of note for players I think should be fantasy relevant in deep dynasty leagues. Either of a waiver/free agent add or addition to a watch list.

Julien Gauthier, RW – NYI two-year $787,500 cap hit.

Leon Gawanke, D – SJS – one-year $775,000 cap hit.

Akito Hirose, LD – VAN – two-year $787,500 cap hit.

Matthew Phillips, C – WAS – one-year $775,000 cap hit.

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As a prospect guy, sometimes you hit and sometimes you miss when predicting who will make it. I miss more often on goalies than skaters with some of my many goalie misses including, Veni Vehvilainen, Merrick Madsen, and now we can add Ben Gaudreau to the list. A 2021 third round selection by the San Jose Sharks, Gaudreau was never signed by the Sharks. As a result, he went back into the NHL Draft and was available in the 2023 Draft but was not selected. He was invited to the Tampa Bay Development Camp, but his inconsistent play and terrible WJC game one vs Czechia have him in my miss file.

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The hockey season never ends with prospects. The summer is full of events like development camps, the CHL Import Draft, The World Junior Summer Showcase, the Gretzky-Hlinka Tournament and Prospect Tournaments. The team at DobberProspects has you covered with the summer 32-in-32 series. Every day in July and August we spotlight an NHL team with off-season reviews including NHL Draft players, free agent signings, prospect rankings and organizational depth charts. Check in every day for the latest.

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If you are looking for Organizational Rankings, we have you covered there too. The Editor team recently updated the NHL Organizational Rankings with each teams top 15 prospects. The page includes a series of articles and podcasts that dive into the analysis.

Another article coming soon will be the 2023 Draft fantasy ranking. We released a version of this early in the year but will be revisiting that now that we know where all the players were selected and have a full season of scouting notes to work with.

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Hope you enjoyed the read, if so you can tune in to the DobberProspects Report podcast every week where Victor Nuno and I share some deep cuts on fantasy hockey prospects for all you dynasty junkies out there.

On the latest episode you will hear all the interviews from the draft with media and NHL personnel and players like Craig Button, Russ Cohen, Shane Malloy, Daniel Briere, Shane Malloy, Ryan Leonard and more.