Ramblings: Kopitar, Nylander, the 2018 Draft, and Threads (July 8)

Ian Gooding

2023-07-08

First off, a HUGE thank you to Peter Harling, Ben Gehrels, and even Dobber himself for filling in this week while I took a much-needed trip to the mountains. All three of these guys killed it this week – Peter with his stories about attending the NHL Draft, Ben with his blend of fantasy and prospects talk, and Dobber with his fiery rant on the state of NHL free agency and the draft. In case you missed, you can find all of them on the Hockey Rambling page. Hopefully we hear from Peter and Ben again one day on the Ramblings beat. In the meantime, you can check out more of their work at Dobber Prospects. A tough act for me to follow!

Now that I'm back, I probably won't get another vacation for a while. At least not this month. There's plenty of work ahead for me, including Ramblings on my usual days and work for the Fantasy Guide, which is available in 20 days. I'm going to be writing the team-by-team sections on injuries, contract years, hits, and goalies. I've barely started, so needless to say I've got my work cut out for me here.

Also, you may have heard that Instagram opened a new Threads app a few days ago. Many of the well-known Twitter accounts are now on this new app, which functions a lot like Twitter. While I had a bit of downtime late in my vacation, I managed to create a new Threads account, which you can find at https://www.threads.net/@goodsfantasyhockey. If you give me a follow this weekend, I'll follow you back if your account is public.

For now, I'll try to post to both Twitter and Threads, depending on what happens with the little bird app. My Twitter account is an important part of my portfolio, since it allows me to promote my work as well as add my opinions that don't necessarily fit or can wait for the next Ramblings. Also, I can communicate with others about fantasy hockey and maybe even non-related topics. Musky (to give him a hockey nickname) might have his reasons for implementing the rate limit, whether they be infrastructure, free speech, or profit (the most likely one IMO). But if his motive is chasing people off the site, then he's succeeding. Then again, this could be a wake-up call for me to not spend so much time scrolling to be right there when that next trade breaks!

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Anze Kopitar has played in Los Angeles for a very long time – 17 seasons, to be exact. Getting to 20 seasons is now even more of a possibility now that the Kings have signed him to a two-year extension starting next season. Kopitar is set to earn $7 million per season starting in 2024-25 after his contract with a cap hit of $10 million expires at the end of this coming season.

Kopitar is now 35 years old, an age where a player's production is on the decline if they have made it that far in their career. Over the past four seasons, Kopitar has been consistent with a point-per-game range of 0.8 – 0.9 PTS/GP over the last four seasons. He even finished on the high end of that range (74 PTS in 82 GP) last season. In addition, only three players (Patrice Bergeron, Sidney Crosby, Bo Horvat) won more faceoffs than Kopitar (899 FOW) in 2022-23, while he finished sixth in total faceoffs (1608 FO).

Once all of the top-tier centers are drafted in single-season leagues, Kopitar is a reliable option who tends to fall below his actual value in single-season leagues – sometimes below the top 100. I currently have Kopitar ranked at 51 in the Top 100 Roto Rankings. Do you think that's too high, too low, or about right? Let me know.

During my vacation, my father texted me stating that William Nylander just got traded. When I replied asking him which team, he said he just saw it pop up on a TV at a restaurant but didn't catch the team and thought maybe I knew. When I was able to check Twitter, I didn't see a Nylander trade, so he must have missed the word "rumor." Regardless, maybe it's a sign that we should expect a Nylander trade soon.

If another rumor is true that Nylander wants at least $10 million when his contract expires next summer, the Leafs would seem foolish to give him that amount. Even if Nylander were to reach 100 points for the first time in his career, the Leafs already have three other players earning at least $10 million. Not a lot of space left to address other team needs. In addition, new GM Brad Treliving has experience in trading stars, having done so with Matthew Tkachuk last offseason. Even with Jake Muzzin expected to go on LTIR, the Leafs still need to shed just over $3 million in cap space while also finding room for RFA Ilya Samsonov. A Matt Murray buyout would be a start but won't fix all of their cap issues.

With all the expiring contracts next summer (Murray, Nylander, Auston Matthews, TJ Brodie, and the newly-signed Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg), it feels like the Leafs are going to try for one last push with the current core. If they fall short of expectations, which should be beyond just getting past the first round by now, then it might be time to blow things up. As much as they might not win the Stanley Cup with the current group, major changes won't necessarily make things better. Buffalo, Detroit, and Ottawa all seem to be making slow-but-steady strides, which should make the playoff race tighter.  

One-time first-round pick Martin Kaut has signed a one-year contract with HC Dynamo Pardubice in the Czech League, ending his stay in the NHL at least temporarily. The 23-year-old played a career-high 36 games between San Jose and Colorado last season, recording eight points in 36 games. A strong season in the Czech League could result in a return to the NHL in the future, although he shouldn't be on anyone's fantasy radar.

Kaut was picked 16th overall in the 2018 draft, which had its clear hits and misses. You may recall that the recently waived Filip Zadina was picked sixth overall in that draft – one pick before Quinn Hughes, who happened to be playing right in their backyard at the University of Michigan. Vitali Kravtsov, who will be playing in the KHL next season, was picked ninth overall by the Rangers – one pick before Evan Bouchard. Five years later, I can spot three players in the top 16 who already appear to be busts: two who will be playing in Europe, and one who just cleared waivers. Another reminder that not all of the players drafted in the top half of the first round will turn out to be stars, or even solid NHLers.

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That draft had plenty of excellent picks, though. Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, and Brady Tkachuk stand out. As well, Bouchard, Noah Dobson, and K'Andre Miller all seem like building blocks on defense (the Rangers made up for missing on Bouchard by picking Miller). There are lots of players in between who the jury should still be out on. For some reason, this seems like one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory.

Vinnie Hinostroza, who has been a favorite of Dobber in the past, has signed a one-year contract worth $775,000 with Pittsburgh. Hinostroza recorded 11 points in 26 games with the Sabres last season, averaging 12:36 in icetime per game. The 29-year-old Hinostroza has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, including a career-high of 39 points with Arizona in 2018-19. He could hold some short-term fantasy value with the Penguins, especially if he can find his way onto a line with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. He is more likely a spare part who could be healthy scratched often, though.

The Penguins have also signed Andreas Johnsson to a one-year contract worth $800,000. A one-time prospect of the Leafs who recorded 43 points for the Buds in 2018-19, Johnsson split time between the NHL and AHL last season, recording just three assists in 13 games between the Sharks and Devils. He also appears to be in a similar spot to Hinostroza.

Veteran depth forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare has signed a one-year, $775,000 contract with Seattle. It may not seem that Bellemare has been in the league that long, but he is now 38 years old. He made his NHL debut as a 29-year-old for the Flyers in 2014-15. He has also played for Vegas, Colorado, and Tampa Bay, so he brings a winning pedigree to the Kraken.

Seattle has also signed Will Borgen to a two-year, $5.4 million contract. In his first full NHL season, Borgen was second on the Kraken with 203 Hits. He slots in as an effective third-pair defenseman.

The Kings have signed Tobias Bjornfot to a two-year contract worth $775,000. Bjornfot spent most of last season in the AHL, playing in just 10 games for the Kings. Expect the 22-year-old to battle once again for a spot on the Kings' roster.

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