Ramblings: Secondary Power Play Defencemen, Including Clarke, Sanderson, Pionk, Barron, and More – July 19
Michael Clifford
2023-07-19
Hey, everyone. Alex is off for today and I have his Ramblings covered. He’ll be back before long but readers have to deal with me again today.
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My Ramblings yesterday discussed power-play production in the NHL and how that's impacted fantasy scoring. Defencemen were reviewed at length, focusing on how there are more high-end producers with the man advantage, but fewer mid- and lower-end ones.
There will be many articles discussing the high-end defencemen over the next few months. I want to look at the next tiers of guys. Which players aren't the lock number-1 PP defenceman but can help in the PPP fantasy category, either through secondary minutes or potentially a 3F-2D setup? Let's look at some names.
The first area we'll comb are guys that gained PPTOI in the second half of last season. New Year's Day will be the dividing line, and we'll try to avoid the teams that were brutalized by injuries. No, I don't imagine Jake Christiansen will be a regular power-play quarterback for Columbus.
Juuso Välimäki
The blue line in Arizona was cleared of Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere last season and that led to Välimäki cresting the 2-minute mark in PPTOI per game in the second half. In that time, the rearguard put up 7 PPPs in 47 games. Getting to 10 PPPs in a full season should be no problem, as long as Välimäki gets the top PPTOI.
Getting that top PPTOI is the crux here. Sean Durzi was added in the offseason and despite his defensive issues, he can run a power play. It's conceivable (likely?) that Durzi gets first crack at the top quintet. Whether he stays there for the season is another matter. Välimäki should get secondary PPTOI, which isn't worth a lot in Arizona, but should get to the top unit at times.
Sanderson clearly has a lot of competition for meaningful PPTOI in Ottawa, a team that runs a heavily-used top PP unit that often features one defenceman (Thomas Chabot). It should be noted, however, that from early to late March, when all of Sanderson, Chabot, and Jakob Chychrun were in the lineup, all three skated between two and three minutes a night on the power play. The team experimented with different setups and the rate at which they drew power plays gave everyone a bigger role. Despite all that competition in March, Sanderson had four PPPs in 14 games played, more than Chabot and Chychrun combined. Ottawa's rising star defenceman is absolutely a threat for double-digit PPPs, even if he's third on the depth chart for that ice time, so long as there is enough talent for two units.
With Tony DeAngelo being nuked from the face of the Earth by John Tortorella, there was more power-play time available down the stretch. Rasmus Ristolainen was the biggest beneficiary, but if he stays their PP1 defenceman, I am going to have my own meltdown.
York was re-signed recently and, as mentioned at the time, he was a defenceman that seemed to grow in Tortorella's estimation as the season wore on. York flirted with 2 minutes/game of PPTOI in the second half and with DeAngelo gone from the team, York will bounce between secondary and primary man advantage roles.
To be sure, Adam Fox is the guy in New York and will remain the guy for many years as long as he stays healthy. This isn't about Gustafsson assuming his role, but other roles instead.
Since getting to the Rangers, partly thanks to Fox's breakout, Jacob Trouba's PPTOI has declined each season to a career-low 1:08 per night in 2022-23. K'Andre Miller still hasn't gained the trust of the coaching staff to run the second PP unit himself, and it's a wonder if the team doesn't use Gustafsson on the second unit instead of the incumbents. It may not be enough for double-digit PPPs, but if Fox should ever miss a few weeks, his replacement is right here.
Winnipeg earned a lot of power plays down the stretch so Pionk's rise in PPTOI was more related to that than anything. And, as this is being written, the Jets are still firmly in the rumour mill for fire sale-ing their team. This could be a situation that leads to a 3F-2D top PP unit at times this season, something Winnipeg did for a handful of games last season. This is an idea to re-visit closer to the season when rosters are more formalized but keep Pionk in mind for now.
Now, let's pivot to some tenuous situations where a defenceman could step into a PP1 role for stretches of time. (Think of what happened last year in Minnesota.) These players may not be in a top role for even half the season, but a handful of games here and there, on top of secondary PPTOI, could get them to double-digit PPPs. These are just out of my head and not based on any specific stat.
Jake Walman
Walman was discussed last week so there's no need to dig far into what he brings. What I will say is that even if Shayne Gostisbehere is locked on the top PP unit, the Red Wings will likely be using Walman on the second unit. The former St. Louis blue liner took some top PP time from Mortiz Seider last year as it was, and it appears Gostisbehere is being brought in to buy more time for Seider to acclimate running a power play.
All this tells me that there's a decent chance that, as things stand right now, Walman is next in line after Ghost for the prime PP role. Should Ghost not succeed, or get injured, Walman might be able to step right in. I am not expecting Ghost to fail, but the incumbent may not be as far from a huge jump in PP value as it seems.
Calen Addison was recently reviewed in these Ramblings (click that link in the Walman section), but it was from a peripheral perspective. He should be the guy on the top Minnesota power play come October, but the team showed last season they won't tolerate under-performance (it's why I said earlier to think of Minnesota's PP changes). The options to replace Addison are limited and Spurgeon is the one that makes sense if a change is needed. It would not be shocking to see Spurgeon skating with Kirill Kaprizov once the calendar turns to December or January.
As things stand right now, Mike Matheson is one of my early, favourite fantasy defencemen. I'll wait to see where ADPs are in September, but Matheson is absolutely a guy I have pencilled for 20 PPPs right now.
Matheson has missed 22% of his games over the last four seasons. A lot of that was in 2022-23, but even just the 2019-22 stretch saw him miss 14% of his games, or 12 games out of 82. The Montreal blue line still has a lot of young guys, and Arber Xhekaj did get some PP time last season, but Barron looks to be the puck-mover of the future from the crop. He could get 10-12 games on the top unit and 70 on the second one. That is enough to threaten 10 PPPs… though as I say that, imagining Montreal with two successful PP units feels like a lot to ask.
Of the 12 defencemen that reached at least 25 PPPs last season, Drew Doughty was one of them with 27. Considering the Kings weren't shy to split, or near-split, their two power-play units, that is impressive.
With that said, why have Brandt Clarke on the roster if it's not to run a power play? My is that he'll step into Durzi's role on the second unit. In his 72 games last year, Durzi had 16 PPPs running the second power play, sometimes moving to the top unit. That might be a bit high of an expectation for a rookie like Clarke, but it shows what is up for grabs with Durzi now in Arizona.
This may be a bit further out there, but we did get word that Kylington will return to the NHL this season, and he will be a welcome re-addition to the Flames blue line. He should get secondary PPTOI, alongside MacKenzie Weegar, but Kylington will be one of the guys in the mix for top minutes should that need arise for one reason or another. Last season, Flames defencemen not named Rasmus Andersson amassed 15 PPPs. With a new coach and a (hopefully) rejuvenated forward group, Kylington could push for 10 PPPs if things break right.