Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

—

1. The Fantasy Guide will be available this week. Purchase yours here today! 

As well, the French version of the Guide will be available no later than August 4. Reserve your copy here.

Both editions have everything fantasy owners need for the 2023-24 season including projections, over- and undervalued players, projected line combinations, a draft list, and a whole lot more. The are constantly updated throughout the offseason/training camp so readers have an updated version ready to download when major transactions/injuries happen.

Help support us and give yourself a leg up on your competition!

2. It's also Bubble Keeper Week here at DobberHockey. This is a time of week we look forward to each year because it allows us to really start focusing on the 2023-24 season.

It is one thing to talk about potential regression, role changes, free agent signings, and increases/declines in various fantasy stats, it is another thing to start applying that knowledge to consequential fantasy decisions.

3. Single-season fantasy drafts won’t start for about another two months (or more), but in the dog days of summer you might already find yourself preparing. It’s never too early, I suppose.

For example, in my last Top 100 Roto Rankings, I had Linus Ullmark listed as my top goalie. A reader commented that he was surprised that Ullmark was in that spot. I am certainly open to changing that, but after thinking some more about who the top goalie should be in 2023-24 fantasy drafts, I’m not sure who that goalie should be.

What I do know is who I think the top FIVE goalies should be. I’ll try to make a case for each of them to be #1, and provide reasons why they shouldn’t be. (july21)

For example, Ullmark below:

4. Linus Ullmark:

Case for: He’s your reigning Vezina Trophy winner, having led all qualified starters with a 1.89 GAA and .938 SV%. He also tied for the league lead in wins (40) with Alexandar Georgiev in spite of playing in just 49 games. That means he earned a win over 80% of the time he started. If you picked someone else to start over Ullmark, you probably made the wrong call most of the time. If he can maintain this level or even close to it, he’s still your #1 fantasy goalie.

Case against: Unfortunately, there’s a few. The playoff performance proved that he might be mortal, or just simply functions better if he alternates starts with Jeremy Swayman. That takes us to the next reason, which is that I’d expect him to start only around 50% of the time again due to the timeshare, which might limit his win total. speaking of that win total, the Bruins very likely won’t replicate their Presidents’ Trophy 2022-23 season, which aided Ullmark’s success. He also doesn’t have the multi-season track record of success that some of the other goalies on this list. [Follow the link for the other four]

So, who is your number one goalie? This is a tough call, and I don’t think I’m ready to decide here. I think these goalies are worth their own tier, though.

Looking at my rankings again, I would give an honorable mention as my 6 and 7 goalies (you decide which order) to Connor Hellebuyck and Alexandar Georgiev. Maybe that’s a very slender Tier 2. Could more goalies be added to that group? You can find view the stats of the goalies listed in the Top 100 Roto Rankings here. (july21)

5. The march toward arbitration continues and there are players that may end up there, though most of these cases are often resolved beforehand. One interesting case is that of Toronto goalie Ilya Samsonov. Even with Jake Muzzin on LTIR, the team is in excess of $3M over the cap without Samsonov signed. Each dollar matters, and that’s why the player and team being this far apart is important:

According to Elliotte Friedman: Arbitration filings for Ilya Samsonov (TOR). Team: $2.4M; player $4.9M.

A lot of these end up just splitting the difference, but even a $3.5M AAV brings them past $6.5M over the cap. Just trading Matt Murray isn’t enough. Trading Murray and going back in a time machine and not signing David Kampf would be enough, in case the team’s analytics department has a time machine kicking around. (july20)

6. We also got arbitration news on Gabriel Vilardi:

Again, according to Friedman: Gabe Vilardi and Winnipeg have a pre-arbitration settlement: 2x$3.4375M

There are very few more interesting players in fantasy this season. If his breakout continues, he could have a big year playing with some very good offensive players. If it doesn’t… (july20)

7. This past week, we’ve continued our look at peripheral stats in fantasy hockey, focusing on how they’ve changed in parallel to the game itself over the years. Last week’s Ramblings covered how stats like blocked shots, hits, and penalty minutes have fluctuated in recent seasons, how many players reach different peripheral thresholds, and some players to target for various reasons. Go visit our Ramblings section to peruse the list.

The last couple Ramblings averted their gaze to the power play. The first looking at production and shot rates on the power play from defensemen, the distribution of points among the league’s PP defensemen, and what it all means for fantasy. The second spent time on particular targets to consider outside of the top tier of producers.

Today, we’ll move on to the forwards. If there are changes on the blue line, there are changes up front, and it’s important to go through them. (july20)

[Follow the link for Michael Clifford's complete analysis]

8. Mike sums up his analysis regarding forwards below:

• Power play scoring went up, but much of the impact can be attributed to the hyper-elite Edmonton power play. If they can maintain that level, it skews their value a lot. If they can’t, forwards like RNH and Zach Hyman will be overvalued at the draft table.
  
• Setting aside the Edmonton power play forwards, there were still more high-end PPP seasons in 2022-23 than in recent memory. Increased power play opportunities helped this along, but even without McDavid and Draisaitl, it’s easier to find guys that will give you 19 or 26 PPPs. All hope is not lost if you don’t have your first overall pick in September.
  
• The change in ice-time distribution is suppressing the lower-end producers. They still exist, and there are a lot to pick from, but it’s getting harder to find that winger who’ll throw in 11 PPPs alongside stellar peripherals.

The changes to the man advantage have a lot of implications as far as draft value and subsequent waiver value are concerned. These differences apply both to defensemen and forwards, and that changes fantasy hockey entirely. It really is a fascinating time to be involved in this game. (july20)

9. On Wednesday, Mike looked at "players that aren’t the lock number-1 PP defenseman but can help in the PPP fantasy category, either through secondary minutes or potentially a 3F-2D setup? The first area we’ll comb are guys that gained PPTOI in the second half of last season. New Year’s Day will be the dividing line, and we’ll try to avoid the teams that were brutalized by injuries. No, I don’t imagine Jake Christiansen will be a regular power-play quarterback for Columbus." (july19)

Below are three of those names; follow the link for the others.

10. Jake Sanderson: Sanderson clearly has a lot of competition for meaningful PPTOI in Ottawa, a team that runs a heavily-used top PP unit that often features one defenseman (Thomas Chabot). It should be noted, however, that from early to late March, when all of Sanderson, Chabot, and Jakob Chychrun were in the lineup, all three skated between two and three minutes a night on the power play. The team experimented with different setups and the rate at which they drew power plays gave everyone a bigger role. Despite all that competition in March, Sanderson had four PPPs in 14 games played, more than Chabot and Chychrun combined. Ottawa’s rising star defenseman is absolutely a threat for double-digit PPPs, even if he’s third on the depth chart for that ice time, so long as there is enough talent for two units. 

Brandt Clarke: Of the 12 defensemen that reached at least 25 PPPs last season, Drew Doughty was one of them with 27. Considering the Kings weren’t shy to split, or near-split, their two power-play units, that is impressive. With that said, why have Clarke on the roster if it’s not to run a power play? My guess is that he’ll step into Durzi’s role on the second unit. In his 72 games last year, Durzi had 16 PPPs running the second power play, sometimes moving to the top unit. That might be a bit high of an expectation for a rookie like Clarke, but it shows what is up for grabs with Durzi now in Arizona.

Oliver Kylington: This may be a bit further out there, but we did get word that Kylington will return to the NHL this season, and he will be a welcome re-addition to the Flames blue line. He should get secondary PPTOI, alongside MacKenzie Weegar, but Kylington will be one of the guys in the mix for top minutes should that need arise for one reason or another. Last season, Flames defensemen not named Rasmus Andersson amassed 15 PPPs. With a new coach and a (hopefully) rejuvenated forward group, Kylington could push for 10 PPPs if things break right.

11. And earlier, on Tuesday, Mike dug into "the change in PP production over the years and how that applies to defensemen in particular." Follow the link for the deep dive.

Here, he sums it up:

• Additional power-play opportunities and an increased conversion rate have led to more goals and points. That includes production from defensemen, but how that production is distributed among PP defensemen has changed.
  
• Despite all the additional PP chances, the share of ice time available to defensemen is falling. That limits the secondary options.
  
• Defensemen are taking lower and lower shares of power play shots each season. It is largely a function of the change in power-play formations.
  
• There are more high-end PP blue liners than any point in recent history, but there are also fewer in the middle- and lower-classes. That means it’s hard to chip away at power-play point deficits once they start growing during the fantasy season.
  
• Even the middle- and lower-class defensemen getting PPTOI are producing less on a per-season basis. A lot of small-space play by the forwards on the man advantage could easily be a cause here. (july18)

12. Not that it was in doubt, but Connor Bedard signed his entry-level deal with the Blackhawks, ensuring he’ll be in the lineup on opening night. The future has arrived for Chicago.

When he was drafted, I looked at how recent super-elite draft picks have fared in their rookie seasons. There is upside to be had, but it’s also a matter of where his ADP ends up. As one example, to be a top-50 skater by Yahoo! scoring in 2022-23, a forward almost certainly needed 30 goals and 70 points. There were a couple exceptions like Joe Pavelski with 28 goals and Adrian Kempe with 67 points, but Pavelski was also plus-42 while Kempe had 41 goals and 250 shots. If Bedard’s ADP is anywhere inside the top-60 players off the board in a multi-cat format, and league scoring holds over, his stat line has to be, at a minimum, 30 goals, 40 assists, 200 shots, and 20 PPPs. There is room for fluctuation – 37 goals and 32 assists probably gets it done, for example – but those should be seen as baselines for a top-60 ADP using Yahoo!’s scoring system.

We obviously have to wait for September to see where Bedard’s ADP falls, just beware of how high the bar for production is now, especially for a skater to be a high-end option in multi-cat one-year leagues. (july18)

13. Dobber's rant this past week made the headlines: "I rant a lot, as regular readers of me here (and on Twitter) can attest. I found myself ranting to a buddy a couple of nights ago, about some of the things that had me scratching my head. I figured it would make a great Ramblings topic – a topic for discussion. Agree/Disagree? Feel free to weigh in. But here are 15 moves – or non-moves – that have baffled me the most. In order of least baffling to most baffling…" (july17)

We'll spot a few below, but you can follow the link for Dobber's entire rant.

14. Detroit/Daniel Sprong – Detroit and Daniel Sprong

DD: This 'baffle' is for both parties. Sprong enjoyed a great season with Seattle despite being held down the lineup by his coach – his production kept him afloat despite limited opportunity. It’s smart of him and his agent to get him signed to a contract right away. They read the market and determined that they needed to lock things down before the money dried up, because he didn’t have a strong enough foothold on a roster spot to get an NHL job even days after free agency opened. He also did well to get a $2M contract, even for one year. But…Detroit? He is genuinely risking that next contract. With Alex DeBrincat, David Perron, Robby Fabbri, Lucas Raymond, Jonatan Berggren absolutely locking up the first five wing spots, he has to beat out both Klim Kostin and Joe Veleno (who I believe moves to the wing this year) if he wants a spot in the top nine. If he’s not in the top nine nor on a PP unit, he’s not getting a contract next year, simple as that. Seems a little risky, when other teams could have used him even if it meant taking a bit less.

And from Detroit's standpoint? Why? Seems like the Red Wings solved their issues in adding depth on the wing by acquiring Kostin and signing Christan Fischer. And if they still need one, they can call up Marco Kasper or Elmer Soderblom. Not a huge deal, just a bit of a curiosity for me due to a lack of fit. (july17)

15. Edmonton – Kailer Yamamoto

DD: I get that the Oilers needed to bring their cap down. I get that Yamamoto hasn’t met expectations yet. But to me, that’s a matter of managing expectations. He’s probably two years away from any kind of breakout, and while it would have been nice if he became a star within 200 games of his career, often it doesn’t work out that way. They just invested millions in developing this player and they let him go just for more cap space.

Cap space is important. Understood. But we saw before, with Brooks Orpik and Washington, where they trade the player for his buyout – and then signed him back at a low rate. They could have still brought Yamamoto in and given it two more years. (july17)

16. Ottawa – Joonas Korpisalo

DD: If you’re like me, you’re loving Ottawa’s rebuild. This young team is looking competitive for years to come. So committing five years to a goalie who has never played 40 games in a season in his entire career (at any level) seems like a huge risk. Four of Korpisalo’s last six seasons saw him with a sub-0.900 SV%. Could it work? Of course it could. But so could promoting a kid, or signing Tristan Jarry for $1.3M more. Or signing Alex Lyon for $4M less. Just an odd decision. I would have understood this if it was for one or two years. (july17)

17. Chicago/Vladimir Tarasenko – Chicago and Vladimir Tarasenko

DD: Tarasenko is going to sign with Ottawa (the favorite), Nashville, Florida, San Jose or Nashville. Why on earth is Chicago not involved? I’ve ranted about this several times, so I won’t beat this drum too much here. I get that he wants a multi-year deal and doesn’t want to be on a rebuild. I get that Chicago already signed the veterans they wanted to sign. But signing Tarasenko for cheap, benefits everybody.

Chicago would gain: Connor Bedard would do far better with Tarasenko on his line than Taylor Hall. I have very little faith in Hall.

Tarasenko would gain: He would make far more money in the long run. A one-year deal, even at the league minimum, on a line with a player that will help him maximize his point total, will lead to a multi-year deal worth far more than the one he signs this summer. Far more. Especially with the cap going up by so much next summer. Whatever he gets for the 50 points that he just got in 2022-23 when teams have no cap room, just imagine the term and dollars he would get after 70 or 75 points! (july17)

18. I enjoyed Dobber’s Ramblings yesterday looking at some odd offseason movement. The one that stuck out to me was Alex Killorn. Listen, he’s made good money already, has his championships, and probably just wants to play somewhere warm as he winds down his career. Good for him on getting that, and another real big chunk of change. And I guess Anaheim wanted some championship pedigree, or something, but Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was there for one year at well under $1M, Ryan O’Reilly was available for $1.75M less per season, while Brian Dumoulin only got two years. All these guys are Cup winners and would have been much less expensive, and mostly for fewer years, than Killorn. It is a weird, weird signing at that length and AAV. (july18)

19. The Patrick Kane watch will probably go on for a while. According to his agent, Kane is not expected to sign a contract before the season. You may recall that Kane underwent hip resurfacing surgery on June 1 with an expected recovery of 4-6 months, so it seems unlikely that he will be 100% when the season starts on October 10. You can let Kane fall in single-season league drafts unless a team steps up and signs him before the start of the season. However, I can imagine that he will be a hot waiver-wire commodity once more about a return date is known. (july16)

20. The Penguins have signed Ty Smith to a one-year contract worth $775,000. Smith spent most of 2022-23 in the AHL, playing just nine games for the Penguins. He doesn’t seem like a sure thing to make the Penguins roster again this season, but that will have to be decided at training camp. If Smith makes the Penguins, he has some offensive upside, having scored four points in his nine NHL games and 24 points in 39 AHL games. (july16)

21. As mentioned way further above, the Top 100 Roto Rankings have been published for July. As always, managing editor Ian Gooding is looking for your input and feedback, as others may notice player value differences that he doesn't.

Here is how Ian saw Connor Bedard infiltrate July's Top 100:

"Where is the best spot to rank Bedard? First-year players can be difficult to project – even players that enter the league with a lot of hype. There simply isn’t the body of work at the pro level that you can use to back your projection. I’ve seen one writer rank him in the top 40 in single-season leagues, while another suggested that he will go in the fifth or sixth round in 12-team drafts. I’ve added him somewhere in that neighborhood, as the rankings are a reflection of how players are valued on the trade market to some degree.

For example, Bedard is ranked a little higher than Dylan Larkin because of that mystery factor, although the two appear to have very similar projections. What if Bedard tears up the league in his first season, just like he has at every level? In his first season, Connor McDavid scored at an 87-point pace in his first season (cut in half by injury), while Auston Matthews scored at a 69-point pace. Only three players had a higher point-per-game than McDavid in his rookie season of 2015-16, so adjust for era and McDavid would have had 100 points in his rookie season if not injured. I wouldn’t go that high on Bedard, but his ranking also reflects the fact that someone in your draft will reach for him in the hopes that he far surpasses his draft-day value." (july16)

—

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.