The 18^th annual Fantasy Guide will be released on Friday, July 28. Less than five days. I've already analyzed, written and projected 29 teams. Yes indeed, I'm almost done.

So…

ANNOUNCEMENT
The 18th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide will not be released this Friday.

It will be released WEDNESDAY
💥💣💥

Pre-order: https://t.co/H2REQ4JSDj pic.twitter.com/dgzcEM8iOn

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 23, 2023

When have I ever had a Guide out two days early? Answer: never. But if the projections get done, I'm not going to sit on them. You'll have them.

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It's Bubble Keeper Week and all themes for articles this week revolve around those bubble players. I'm in two dynasty leagues: one deep and quite serious, the other one not as deep, not as serious – but it's been running for 34 years so from that standpoint: it's quite serious! I'm also in a keeper league (Keep 12). So I'll run through the "bubble" players for each, as they involve varying calibers of player.

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Dynasty 1

15 teams, 35 players, count the best 12F, 4D and 2G in a points-only format. Keep all players, and there's four rounds of drafting.

I did a great job of setting up my roster to minimize having to drop good players. I don't like wasting assets. I have six draft picks and two open roster spots, so I need to drop four players. Pius Suter and Paul Stastny are obvious ones.

Already Done – Traded Oliver Bjorkstrand for a future second-round pick. I believe in this Dobber Darling in terms of his upside and potential. But I do not believe in him when it comes to how he will do while with Seattle. With the coach locked in and the team successful – his deployment and linemates are not going to change. So what we've been seeing from him is what we'll continue to get.

Easy Decision – Nick Paul will be dropped. I feel pretty stupid for getting sucked in. He's a bigger forward, so his BT is 400 games, and at about the 280-game mark I traded a third-round pick for the right to claim him as a free agent. Just spending a few more minutes looking into it, I would have seen that I should have waited for Anthony Cirelli to return, and then observe the impact on Paul. Stupid! One of my dumber moves of the past decade, but thankfully of little consequence. Paul had 18 points in 23 games, I think I got him at the 18-game mark. After that, he had 14 points in 57 games.

Last Drop – Not an overly difficult decision, as Jack Rathbone is buried in Vancouver's system. I'm holding out hope that he gets traded before training camp and makes this decision tougher, but even then, I've gone pretty sour on him. My next two worse players are both goalies: Eric Comrie, who is currently the highest paid goalie in Buffalo, believe it or not. And Kaapo Kahkonen.

With Comrie, since I have Devon Levi as well, I can at least see a scenario where Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen gets hurt and Comrie stays healthy, getting the easy wins that Buffalo's offense will hand him. With Kahkonen, well, he's on a bad team and has no hope for 20 wins. But the goalie he'll be sharing the net with, Mackenzie Blackwood, was a goalie on a great team – and yet still did horrible. So Kahkonen should end up with the net, though it may take a few months to establish that. But why keep him? Well, he may actually put forth a reasonable season and as a free agent next summer, unrestricted, I may get lucky. It's a long shot, but better odds than Rathbone helping me.

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Dynasty 2

Simple points-only, 13 teams and 20-player roster, top 12 count. As basic as it gets in a keeper league. I was 15 years old when this one started back in 1989. Two rounds of drafting. I have one draft pick.

Obvious drop: Patrice Bergeron. If he plays one more year? Still dropping Bergeron. Next players up are Juuso Parssinen, Bobby Brink, Eeli Tolvanen or Peyton Krebs. Not even considering dropping those guys.

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Keeper League

Keep 12, full rosters (8W, 4C, 6D, 2G) with bench, IR and minors. 14 teams, so it's a deep league. Points count, as do Hits, plus/minus, SOG and PPPts.

My keepers were, prior to my diving into this:

C – Sebastian Aho, Tage Thompson, Morgan Frost, Barrett Hayton

W – Jesper Bratt, Kevin Fiala, JT Miller, Zach Hyman

D – Charlie McAvoy, Erik Karlsson

G – Connor Hellebuyck, Filip Gustavsson

On the Bubble: Frost and Hayton. In a league like this, it's a tough balance between upside versus what they can do right away. Also factor in that I can simply re-draft them, although I got rid of a ton of picks in a (failed) attempt to go after the title. I have since acquired a couple of picks back. It's 13 rounds of drafting and I have nine draft picks, my first pick being in the third round. But I knew I would need to dive into this and analyze the options for those two spots. So what better time than with all of you during Bubble Keeper Week?

So far:

Traded Tomas Hertl and Victor Hedman for Charlie McAvoy and Patrice Bergeron. I did this because I wasn't keeping both Hertl and Hedman, and feel Hedman is on the decline. This was all about upgrading my Hedman keeper spot to McAvoy.

Traded John Carlson and Alex Pietrangelo for a third and fifth rounder. Again, I don't believe in those two to the point where they are vastly better than Frost's 40 points in his last 54 games or Hayton's 38 in his last 56. I look at it like I got Frost (or who I keep) and whoever I draft in the third for Carlson, and Hayton (or who I keep) plus whoever I draft in the fifth for Pietrangelo.

In consideration for those last two keeper spots: If I don't like Hayton, or Frost (prior to this exercise, I figured Hayton was the guy lowest on the totem pole, between the two), I have great options: Carter Verhaeghe, Jared McCann and Brent Burns lead the way. But also Tommy Novak, Jacob Markstrom and Jamie Benn. This is where I need to do a deeper dive.

My initial plan after the season was to do a small retool. Punt one season and focus on younger upside. Trade older guys with value, or decide on who has more value after the season begins. But my keepers are actually pretty good. I had thought I would need to rebuild because I gave up so much in a push for the win, but in the end I didn't really ruin my team. About a decade ago I had won in this league three years in a row, and then after finishing second in the fourth year, I did a small retool. That brought me back up to no higher than second. I think I was second three times, and just finished third now. But I think it's been a good seven or eight years since last winning. This is a league comprised of the writers for Forecaster magazine, for which I used to contribute player profiles in their summer guides back in the day.

Breaking down the contenders

Hayton – projected for 54 points in the Guide, or 0.68 pts/gp.

Frost – projected for 53 points, or 0.69 pts/gp. Has better upside than Hayton.

Verhaeghe – projected for a whopping 72 points, or 0.91 pts/gp, which is close to his upside

McCann – projected for 69 points, or 0.90 pts/gp. Similar upside to Verhaeghe.

Burns – projected for 55 points, or 0.67 pts/gp. He's a defenseman, which is more valuable. But he's also 38 and if he's a borderline keeper now – he won't be next year. Still, that reliability on defense is gold, even if it's just for one year. It seems like I can draft or waiver-claim his replacement for next year.

Novak – projected for 62 points, or 0.80 pts/gp. His upside is intriguing…at first I thought it was mid-60s, but last season definitely boosted that. Higher than Hayton or Frost? Quite a risky pick, if I'm focusing on upside.

Markstrom – projected for 23 wins and a 2.75 GAA. I minor bounce-back, but not to where we want him to be. He could certainly do it, but I have low confidence in this.

Benn – projected for 62 points, or 0.77 pts/gp. He's a declining asset with minimal gains over the other options for the year ahead.

My conclusions

Verhaeghe is definitely taking out Hayton. Hayton could break out, but Verhaeghe is proven and in his prime. He's done it, with no signs of slowing down. If anything, my 72-point projection is conservative. The guy's a 42-goal scorer. He's in and Hayton is out.

The next part is not so easy. It's McCann versus Burns, with Frost now out of the mix. McCann is another proven 40-goal scorer and proven 70-point player. And high-caliber defense are so hard to acquire. I've already talked myself out of Frost: I was clearly using my dynasty-league mentality when initially thinking I should keep him. So do I want the likely 70-point player with staying power, or the 50+ defenseman who 'should' have one more year in him?

Answer: I'll do what I always do. I'll trade my way out of this difficult decision. Maybe I can upgrade McCann and Frost to a defenseman that I have projected for similar to Burns – but is younger.

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This clarifies my above trade to be: I get Verhaeghe and a third-round pick for Carlson, and Burns (or McCann) and a fifth-round pick for Pietrangelo.

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See you next Monday.