Wild West: Western Conference Bubble Keepers

Grant Campbell

2023-07-24

Over the last few seasons, during bubble week I have focused on the format I know and that is a 25-team salary cap ($83.5 million) keeper pool with 27 players on each roster (20 active and seven in reserve, but all salaries count). As it is the off-season, we allow each team to carry 28 players if one of the players is an Entry draft pick from 2023. Teams must get back down to 27 players on the roster the week before the start of the season.  Currently, there are 660 players on rosters over the 25 teams.

The point system is based on goals, assists, and plus/minus which are weighted differently for forwards (four fantasy points for goals and assists and two FP for plus/minus) and defensemen (five FP for goals and eight for assists and four for plus/minus) Goalies are rewarded for wins, overtime or shootout losses, shutouts and games played. There are no hits or PIM. Our league is capped at nine defencemen and three goalies with a minimum of five defence and two goalies.

The pool has an average salary of $2.96 million (up from $2.8 last year) with an average of 156 FP per season (up from 150.9) and 1.90 FP per game for players (up from 1.84). When we developed the rules for the pool, our goal was to have each position represented somewhat equally in the top 20 for points, so the top goalie, forward or defenceman would all be in the top ten. Goalies are not dressing the number of games they did in the past so are losing a little ground here.

This was the third year in a row where we saw fantasy points increase.

Last year the top player at each position was Connor McDavid (1st overall) with 746 FP at forward, Dougie Hamilton (4th overall) with 563 FP at defense and Alexandar Georgiev (28th overall) with 430 FP in goal. There were 10 defenders and 10 forwards in the top 20 with the top three being McDavid, Leon Draisaitl (601) and David Pastrnak (571).

This is a great exercise to look at if you’re running your own pool and want to check and see if your rules are still holding up after a few years. I had made a note last season that if Cale Makar led the overall points by 106 like he did, I would have to look at the point system a little closer. He did not, so I will keep as it is.

The Salary Cap of $83.5 million is having a fairly large influence in our pool as it is becoming more difficult to stay under (as it is in the NHL).

Some recent drops who haven't been picked up yet in our weekly waivers are (Average fantasy points in pool was 156 in 2022-23):

Anders Lee – Forward – NY Islanders – 212 FP (77% rostered)

Lee has the highest available fantasy points from last season with 212 and is rostered in 77% of Fantrax pools. His availability in our pool comes down to the $9 million in salary he will make in 2023-24 and not the 28 goals and 22 assists he had. I am fairly confident he will be picked up and dropped a few times.

Jason Zucker – F – Arizona – 198 FP (73% rostered)

Zucker was almost identical to Anders Lee above with 27 goals and 21 assists, but he has moved from Pittsburgh to Arizona and still makes $5.3 million in 2023-24. There is a risk with his plus minus with the Coyotes being at minus 20 or worse and his point production decreasing.

Kevin Hayes – F – St. Louis – 189 FP (74% rostered)

Hayes was traded from Philadelphia to St. Louis and should see a bump there, but he was recently dropped in our pool. His salary is $6.5 million for 2023-24 and he was healthy last year with the Flyers where he had 18 goals and 36 assists in 81 games. He was a minus 20, but should be on a better team in St. Louis so could see quite an improvement there. He will be picked up I am sure.

Jake Allen – Goalie – Montreal – 182 FP (55% rostered)

Goalies are difficult to forecast as most of the teams in our league like to carry two starters and a prospect or backup who has potential to start. Allen is expensive at $4.4 million for a goalie who is unlikely to see 42 games in 2023-24 if he plays to the level he did last year with a 3.55 GAA and a save percentage of 89.1. Sam Montembeault has more than likely won the starting job in Montreal but Allen can be better.

Adam Lowry – F – Winnipeg – 161 FP (49% rostered)

Lowry will make $4.5 million in 2023-24 so it puts him just on the bubble of being an average keeper player with an average salary. After nine seasons, his 13 goals and 23 assists leading to 161 fantasy points is probably his ceiling. He's a safe player, who will no doubt be added to a roster when injuries start to happen.

Jonathan Quick – G – NY Rangers – 201 FP (39% rostered)

I was surprised to see that Quick had 201 fantasy points and played in 41 games split between Los Angeles and Vegas in 2022-23. He only makes $825k for 2023-24 and will be behind Igor Shesterkin with the NY Rangers. If he starts 20-25 times he'll be good value for that salary. At 37 years of age, injuries will always be a concern.

Trevor van Riemsdyk – Defense – Washington – 177 FP (25% rostered)

TVR is our first defensemen on this list, which speaks to the importance and scarcity of quality ones in our keeper pool. Van Riemsdyk will make $3.75 million in 2023-24 which is just above average salary in the NHL and he was just above our league average in fantasy points. He should be a player who is rostered but 2022-23 was a career year for him. 

Mikael Granlund – F – Pittsburgh – 147 FP (41% rostered)

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Granlund will make $6 million in 2023-24 and has been below average for fantasy points in two of the past three seasons. He had one goal and four assists in 21 games with Pittsburgh last year, so I guess he can only get better there.

Adam Henrique – F – Anaheim – 148 FP (44% rostered)

Henrique will make $5.825 million in 2023-24 and is in the final year of his contract. He surely will be traded before or at the deadline. He is as steady as they come with nine seasons above 36 points and below 51 points. He has had 20 goals six times in his career. I think he would be a good addition if a team had salary space.

Marcus Pettersson – D – Pittsburgh – 139 FP (39% rostered)

Pettersson will make $4.025 million in 2023-24 which is just above an average NHL salary but his fantasy points are just below the NHL average. He is close but he is perhaps at the ceiling for what he can produce. For our league he should be a depth addition or an injury replacement.

Scott Mayfield – D – NY Islanders – 171 FP (44% rostered)

Mayfield had perhaps his best year in the NHL after six full campaigns with six goals and 18 assists in 82 games. He signed a new seven-year deal at $3.5 million AAV which is an NHL average salary. In our keeper pool I don't think he will hurt a team who has him rostered but he is unlikely to move you up the standings either. 

Victor Olofsson – F – Buffalo – 131 FP (68% rostered)

Our pool rewards goal scoring, but it doesn't reward goal scorers who are defensive liabilities. Olofsson will make $4.75 million in 2023-24 and had 28 goals and 12 assists but was minus 23 which put him just below average for our pool fantasy points. As the Sabres improve, there is a chance that Olofsson improves his numbers as well, but there is also the chance they move him.

Cody Ceci – D – Edmonton – 122 FP (22% rostered)

I do enjoy seeing a player who was making $3 million have his salary increase to $4.5 million and he gets dropped. What it tells me is that our keeper pool GMs are paying attention. It moved Ceci from a neutral fantasy player to a negative fantasy player in salary alone. He would have to have the year he had in 2021-22 with five goals and 23 assists to get back to neutral.

Frank Vatrano – F – Anaheim – 116 FP (63% rostered)

Vatrano's fantasy stock took a big hit with his negative 29 in plus minus. He still had 22 goals and 19 assists, but he earns $3.65 million. He will more than likely be picked up, but the vibe from our league is that they have little faith he will improve.

Andreas Athanasiou – F – Chicago – 114 FP (51% rostered)

At $3 million AAV, Athanasiou's 20 goals, 20 assists and a minus 29 was bearable for his fantasy owner. He re-signed for two years at $4.25 million AAV and he was dropped. There is nothing more frustrating for our league than seeing a player have negative fantasy points after a game. Athanasiou is no stranger to that scenario.

Ryan Strome – F – Anaheim – 110 FP (49% rostered)

Strome had a disappointing first year in Anaheim with just 15 goals, 26 assists and a minus 30 in 82 games. His $5 million AAV for four more years isn't helping. He had some good fantasy point campaigns with the Rangers but it might be more of a challenge in Anaheim. I think he is worth taking a flyer on.

Hopefully this helps a few people who might be considering some of these players in your pools which have salary caps. I believe the cap is one of the most enjoyable features that a pool can have and brings another level.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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