Capped: Bubble Keepers in Cap Leagues including Hill, Hall, and More

Andrew Santillo

2023-07-27

Hello again my Salary Cap-friendlies, and a very happy Bubble Week to all who celebrate. I admit, when I was given the heads up that this week is Bubble Week here on the site my mind immediately went to Bubble Hockey. Anyone else have one growing up? There was always that one spot right in the corner that if the puck went to, you'd be hard pressed to get it out no matter how many times you spun your red/blue player with a longer stick than any of the other players.

Really though, this was a harder list for me to come up with because for salary/dynasty leagues I feel like players right on the bubble may be harder to identify. My first instinct was to go through my own league and look at my own club but then I began to look at the larger picture of the league itself and just who I might see become available on waivers sooner rather than later this season, or who I might see as "likely to trade".

*For this article roster percentages will be omitted with most fantasy sites undergoing offseason maintenance as well as some fantasy leagues not yet renewed for the upcoming season. Cap information is from Cap Friendly.

Adam Henrique – C/LW – Vegas – 32 yrs old
Contract: $5.82M – One year remaining – M-NTC

I think sure, Adam Henrique has been a consistent player for fantasy and does offer the nice advantage of hits/blocks on nights that he's not on the point sheet. Maybe a slight down season for him with 38 points but let's be honest with ourselves here, last year was a down year for everyone on Anaheim.

When it comes to him as a player on the bubble player, I think he perfectly fits the mold. If you decide to continue rostering him, you have to eat up a fairly sizable cap hit for a player that may only land you around 40 points on the season. Not to mention that he's likely going to start most of his shifts in the defensive zone (because Ducks), as he did last season.

So, is there a reason he could likely be a keeper instead of a player on the way off your roster for dynasty? I'm telling you now, he's going to be in trade rumors by Christmas time, maybe even sooner. That could mean that your $5.8 cap hit on a club where he may not see any time on the man advantage, could be sent to a contending team come trade deadline where all of a sudden, his value goes up. For the start of this season though it might be tough sledding, and that's also given that as I write this, Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry are still not signed…does anyone else smell an offer sheet coming?

Brendan Gallagher – RW – 31 yrs old
Contract: $6.5M – Four years remaining – M-NTC, NMC

This one is hard for me, but that's only because you may not find a bigger Brendan Gallagher fan out there. I absolutely loved his game a few seasons ago and selfishly he was a player that absolutely was a large contributor for my fantasy team that won our league that season. Banners fly forever, you guys.

But that was then, this is now. I've learned in fantasy that when there's the player that we compare stats to from a few seasons ago, that player hardly ever reverts back. There are some exceptions for sure, but I think by and large it's hard to have wishful thinking towards a player that is just at a different point in their career.

I think here injuries may have caught up to Gallagher as he's not really much of a threat offensively for this Habs club but that doesn't mean that you have to move off of him right this minute. Let's assume right now he'll probably be slotted along Montreal's checking line which odds are pairs him with newly acquired Alex Newhook, possibly a decent line to get a mismatch or two. Gallagher is still going to get some power play time and let's just assume he's healthier than he has been, you might be looking at a 50-point player with a points per 60 minutes around 2.3-2.6? I don't think that's totally out of the question here. This may be a player to roster early and then make a decision, as opposed to possibly moving him before Opening Night.

Adin Hill – G- 27 yrs old
Contract: $4.9M – Two years remaining – M-NTC

Adin Hill was fantastic for the Knights on their way to winning the Cup and I'm sure there are fantasy players out there that began rostering him once it looked like Logan Thompson was not going to return for the Knights. That's just the issue though along with a larger cap hit, what is his workload going to look like and was his play in in Playoffs sustainable?

I remember 2010 where it looked like Antti Niemi might be the Hawks goaltender of the future until he wasn't. I think we could even throw Martin Jones in there as a goaltender who brought his club to a Cup only to be in fantasy trade offers the following season. I'm not saying that Hill is going to be that sort of goaltender but if you're rostering him there is a question of where to go from here.

I think there's a real roadmap where Vegas goes with Logan Thompson in net opening night and gives him the bulk of the workload this season, so this may be club dependent on if you can afford to keep him on your roster. If you're going to go over the cap limit because you have a player (along with Hill) that is going to make a jump with a new contract than it might be a choice to make before the start of the regular season. I don't so much solely lean on Playoff performance as an outlier, but I do think the run he had is a reflection of how he was playing leading up to Playoffs.

We do know one thing, Vegas is going to make it easier for whoever is in net and if they do decide to go with a tandem in goal this season than I think he may fall as a keeper. There's also a world where Logan Thompson leads all fantasy goaltenders in points, and we even saw that beginning to take shape through the Christmas break last season.

Taylor Hall – LW – 31 yrs old
Contract: $6M – Two years remaining – N-NTC, NMC

So here I am, going up and down different salary cap sites along with one of my leagues and some of the names I'm coming up with are fine but don't really move the needle. Jordan Martinook at $1.8? Do we want the floor to a Cody Ceci conversation at $3.25? Me neither, but then I looked at the club that I root for and it was right there at the top. Taylor Hall, come on down.

When Hall signed with the Hawks, most Hawks fans were happy with the deal that basically gave Boston room to work cap-wise and for the Hawks hey, you have to get to the cap floor somehow. I'd rather they do that then take a contract from a defenseman who hasn't touched the ice in a few seasons. In Chicago we call that, "Seabrooking" by the way.  

There's good and there's bad here which makes him a tough choice if you have a league where you're brining everyone on your roster back or a set number. Looking at his cap hit of $6M, it looks like it's steep given what type of player Hall has been for the past few seasons and it's difficult to gage just where that contract puts you as far as forwards given that it was signed in 2013-'14. The players around that cap hit now, sure you'd probably take over Hall at this point for players like Mats Zuccarello, Ondrej Palat, Jake Guentzel, and Nikolaj Ehlers. All of whom probably get close to or above 50 points in a season if healthy.

So, what can we predict out here? Yes, Hall will likely be on a line with Connor Bedard who I believe has already been named this seasons Hart Trophy winner, but we might need to settle expectations down a notch or two. This is a Hawks club that finished with 58 points last season and realistically might fall this season somewhere around the 65–67-point mark if all goes well.

This is a tricky one, and if I have any advice, it's to not fall into name recognition here. Just eye test and what I saw at times last season, there were times Boston was coming up on the rush and Hall would be behind the play or just didn't have that extra stride to get in a decent position to shoot. It was frustrating at times but then again, I do think it's worth seeing just how he plays with this Hawks club to start the season. There's a chance he's off the first line altogether by American Thanksgiving or he's a decent enough point producer to warrant keeping him on your roster. Again, touch and go for a player that odds are someday will be a very weird, "Is he or is he not a Hall of Famer", discussion.

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter
@ndySanz.

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