The 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide has been released! It has everything fantasy hockey owners need to get a head start on the competition from early projections, depth charts, prospect check-ins, category-specific articles, and a whole lot more. Because it's an online guide, it is constantly updated to reflect any transactions that may occur between now and the start of the season. Head on over to the Dobber Shop and help support what we do all year round.

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I just wanted to write a bit on Patrice Bergeron's retirement, setting fantasy hockey aside.

I play a lot of daily fantasy sports (DFS), focusing mostly on hockey, and one of the mantras I had was to never use top forwards going into Boston. For my entire DFS career – going back a decade – Bergeron has been the shutdown centre. Since Boston's Cup win in 2011, Bergeron was on the ice for 3.08 goals-for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 1.89 goals against/60. He was the only forward in the NHL from 2011-2023 to be on the ice for over 3.0 goals-for per 60 and under 2.0 goals against/60. In that span, Bergeron was on the ice for 338 goals against in 10 737 minutes at 5-on-5; Chris Kreider was on the ice for 339 goals against in 9559 minutes. That minute differential is basically an entire extra season for Bergeron, and he ended up on the ice for fewer overall goals against, and did not have Henrik Lundqvist and Igor Shesterkin. It really is absolutely incredible what he did.

Anze Kopitar is one of the best two-way forwards I've ever watched in my life, and it feels like a miracle that he has two Selke trophies. Bergeron's dominance at both ends of the ice is something we only see from a few players each generation, and he stood head-and-shoulders even among that elite grouping of guys like Kopitar, Ryan O'Reilly, and Sean Couturier. A special player that meant a lot not only to the Boston fan base, but marginalized hockey fans across the league. Congratulations to him on a fantastic career and all the best in his post-playing career.

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Another one of the big potential free agent names from 2024 was taken off the board as Carolina extended centre Sebastian Aho for eight years with an AAV approaching the $10M mark:

Sebastian Aho signs an eight-year extension with the #hurricanes carrying a $9.75M AAV.

— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) July 26, 2023

With this extension, Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are signed through the 2028-29 season. Assuming both Seth Jarvis and Martin Necas get long-term deals in the next 12 months, those five players make up the core of Carolina's future. It should be noted that they are all forwards as well, as Carolina has zero defencemen signed past the 2024-25 campaign.

For cap leaguers, this doesn't change a whole lot for Aho owners. The cap will go up nearly 5% from where it is now in a year's time, and over 10% in two years. This deal is a 15% jump in AAV from his current contract. It is a rise but by 2025-26, his percentage of the cap will be almost identical (10.6%) to what it will be in 2023-24 (10.1%). If owners didn't want him in their leagues at his price over the last couple years, I'm not sure why this would change that outlook, other than a small crunch in 2024-25.

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Bubble Keeper Week rolls on here at Dobber Hockey. One recent Ramblings covered a few either/or questions I'm debating in a keeper league of my own. There will be lots of keeper content across the site this week so be sure to check back often for updates.

When making keeper decisions, it's crucial to keep in mind where your team is relative to your league mates. Deciding to keep a young player over a veteran depends a lot on the expectations for the near-term.

To crystallize this, I went and looked at ESPN's final fantasy values for 2022-23. I looked at the top-50 forwards by their scoring system and found that the average age of the top-50 fantasy forwards was 27.8 years old. Of those 50 forwards, there were more at least 35 years old (6) than age-23 or younger (5). There were no players aged 18, 19, or 20 to finish inside the top-50, and only 11 of the 50 players were under 25. That means over three-quarters of the forwards to finish in ESPN's top-50 were at least 25 years old, and none were 20-or-under.

Looking through Evolving Hockey's data from 2022-23, there were 40 forwards age-22 or younger that played at least 750 minutes. Of those 40 forwards, only one skated at least 20 minutes a night (Tim Stützle), only eight skated at least 18 minutes per game, and more than half earned under 16 minutes a night. Even if the youngest forwards in the league earned a full-time role, they were more likely than not to have a depth-type role.  

When it comes to fantasy hockey, role matters more than most other inputs. Andrei Kuzmenko skated a lot, both at even strength and on the power play, with Elias Pettersson. Had Kuzmenko skated a lot with Sheldon Dries and Dakota Joshua instead, he would not have had the season he just had. Coaches generally don't trust younger players with prime roles unless they're on a rebuilding team, and that's why the top TOI earners among the young players in 2022-23 are from teams like Montreal, Anaheim, Ottawa, and New Jersey. There were no top TOI earners among young players from teams like Boston, Tampa Bay, Colorado, or Vegas (a lack of top prospects factors in for contenders).

That last point is what I want fantasy owners to take away from this: it is very hard for a prospect to have a meaningful offensive role on a contender. Those teams are contenders because they already have a lot of top-end talent. There are obviously exceptions – if Boston has a prospect centre step up in a big way, they could be a top-6 pivot for the team this year – but Colorado just traded Alex Newhook and brought in Ross Colton for basically this reason. It's nice to get excited about a good prospect going to an elite team, but it doesn't mean they'll produce great fantasy results anytime soon.

To help fantasy owners with some keeper decisions, I wanted to go through some young players on upper-crust teams. I want to review their status, upside, potential role, and problems with their fantasy value. Dobber released his top prospect rankings a couple weeks ago so check that out alongside this article. These players below won't include the high-end guys of the younger cohort, which means no Jack Hughes, Stützle, Cole Caufield, Matty Beniers, and so on. They will all be players that are supposed to be significant long-term pieces of their respective franchises, though.

Fabian Lysell (BOS)

Lysell was just outside Dobber's top-50 prospects and is likely Boston's top youngster. He had a good AHL season, but his problem is Boston's position of weakness is now at centre. When everyone is healthy, a minimum of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Jake DeBrusk are ahead of him on the depth chart for PPTOI. At least two of those three players would also be ahead of him in EVTOI. Even if he cracks the roster in October, it's a long uphill climb to fantasy relevance.

Cole Perfetti (WPG)

This is one of the tougher selections on this list. Perfetti has been one of my favourite young players over the last couple seasons, but injuries have limited his viewings. As it stands, the team still has Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Nikolaj Ehlers on the roster. Nino Niederreiter is kicking around, and Gabriel Vildari was acquired in the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade. Perfetti may not get a top PP role – even if I think he absolutely should – and Winnipeg is a year away from really turning the roster over. I am very, very bullish on Perfetti long-term and he's a great option to try to acquire in dynasty formats for 2024 and beyond. I just worry about this coming season.

Kaapo Kakko (NYR)

New York has been scrambling for right-wing depth since the Pavel Buchnevich trade, and bringing in Blake Wheeler doesn't bode well for Kakko's short-term fantasy value. The 2019 second overall pick may get a second-line role at even strength, but he won't come close to the top power play. No forward outside NYR's top PP unit reached either 25 goals or 50 points in 2022-23. Even if Kakko takes another step forward offensively, expecting more than 50 points is expecting too much.

Marco Rossi (MIN)

After posting 34 goals and 104 points in 116 AHL games, the time is now for Rossi to make an impact at the NHL level. This is a situation not far off from Boston's as Minnesota doesn't have much high-end centre depth. Ryan Hartman is good, and Joel Eriksson Ek is a great two-way forward, but neither is a top offensive threat. It is a role Rossi can step into, but he'd have to pass one of Hartman/Eriksson Ek on the depth chart, and he'd have to show chemistry with one of Kirill Kaprizov or Matt Boldy. If he doesn't step up in 2023-24, his NHL future would be very cloudy.

Wyatt Johnston (DAL)

Another player we talked about earlier this week. This is a tough one because, like Perfetti, it may only be one year until Johnston earns a much larger role (when the contracts of Joe Pavelski and Matt Duchene run out). However, the depth the team has for 2023-24 makes it seem unlikely his role grows much from 2022-23, so, like Kakko, expecting much more than 50 points is expecting too much.

Matthew Knies (TOR)

This will depend a lot on what happens with William Nylander. If he's traded, Knies could step onto the top PP unit right away. In that scenario, I think Knies is a 60-point threat. If Nylander stays, Knies is almost certainly locked out of the top PP unit and 60 points would be a superlative season. Toronto's young winger looked phenomenal for them down the stretch last season but there's too much elite competition for prime PPTOI in the short-term.

Arthur Kaliyev (LAK)

Injury limited his 2022-23 season to just 56 games and his raw stats aren't great, but here are the top-5 forwards by goals/60 minutes on the power play, in their age-20 and age-21 seasons, going back to the 2012 lockout: Auston Matthews, Kaliyev, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, and Alex DeBrincat. The next five forwards are Patrik Laine, Jack Hughes, Sam Reinhart, William Nylander, and Matthew Tkachuk. The subsequent five forwards after them are Brock Boeser, Kyle Connor, Tyler Seguin, Cole Caufield, and Leon Draisaitl. Read those 15 names back and realize there's not a single player that isn't (or wasn't) fantasy relevant, and the worst among them is Boeser, who had four 20-goal seasons by the age of 24. If Kaliyev ends up a bust, it'll be a pretty big outlier.

All this is to say that I am still a firm believer in Kaliyev's offensive upside. His problem is the Kings are starting to get deep up front and that goes doubly thanks to Quinton Byfield's emergence. He may be stuck in a Jakub Vrana-type role for a few years, skating 12-15 minutes a game.

Alex Holtz (NJD)

Oddly enough, I felt better about Holtz's chances for fantasy relevance at the start of last season than I do now. Where the team once relied on Jesper Bratt for scoring on the wings, they now have added Timo Meier and Tyler Toffoli. Include a healthy Ondrej Palat, plus a breakout season from Dawson Mercer, and it seems as if Holtz will be lucky to hold on to a middle-6 role through the season. With all the extensive contracts on the team, it may be a while before Holtz is a reliable fantasy asset.