It's Bubble Keeper Week at Dobber and as you may have noticed all the writers are focusing on players who might be under keeper consideration in various kinds of leagues. The idea being that anyone in a keeper league has some decisions to make this offseason. When we break down a keeper decision though we are really talking about a comparison between players rather than that player's value in isolation so for Frozen Tool Forensics this week we are going to be focusing on small groups of potentially similar players and select the one to keep. And just to keep it thematic with offseason decisions we are going to be reviewing players who have changed teams.

In terms of process, we will be looking at just a basic set of data for each of our groupings. It will include games played, total points, and Yahoo's standard fantasy points which this year include goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks and (unfortunately) plus/minus. Given we are looking at players on new teams we will also be looking a lot at deployment and depth charts – where did they play last year and is there better or worse competition in their new environment?

First up, we are looking at D, and specifically D that might have some power-play potential.

Power Play Defense

What a trio we have here. All three have demonstrated some relevance at various points in their career. Tony DeAngelo  has had two 60-plus-point pace seasons in his last four, but has also been bought out twice. Shayne Gostisbehere was a bit of a revelation in Arizona, after Philly essentially paid them to take him, though disappeared a bit once he got to Carolina. John Klingberg was excellent for many years in Dallas but bet on himself with a one-year deal in Anaheim and it very much did not work out.

The key for all of them is going to be access to the top power-play. DeAngelo  is returning to Carolina which is somewhat of a known quantity for both sides as he had a fair amount of success in 21-22. The problem is that Brent Burns wasn't there in 21-22 and is now. Burns has the top power-play gig which was good for about 60 percent of the total power-play time. The next highest percentage in Carolina on average was Brett Pesce at 21 percent. DeAngelo 's only relevant seasons are when he got about 60 percent of the power-play on his various teams.

Gostisbhere was also up around 60 percent of the power-play time in Arizona during his rebirth there, but is now in Detroit. His main competition at the moment is Moritz Seider. Seider was a bit of a disappointment in his second season, only managing 15 points on the power-play despite ample opportunity. It is certainly possible that one reason Gostisbehere was brought in was to challenge him and give Detroit another option on the power-play.

John Klingberg has to deal with Morgan Rielly in Toronto. Rielly has been the go-to guy in Toronto (even if the results aren't usually spectacular) since about 2017-18. There is probably room for him to be usurped, but it is not clear that Klingberg is the guy to do it.

Each of these players was brought into a team with an established top power-play quarterback but could have conceivably been brought in to challenge for that role as they all have known defensive liabilities. Overall, the ceiling could be pretty high on any of these players. DeAngelo back on the top power play in Carolina, or Klingberg on the top power play in Toronto are appealing ideas. In both cases though it hard to peg what is going to happen and is likely going to take either a shift in strategy (like moving to three forwards and two D – which doesn't really make sense in either case), or an injury for them to get prime deployment. As an aside it makes me less interested in Morgan Rielly and Brent Burns now that they have some potential competition. The best shot for an outright takeover of the top power-play is probably Gostisbehere so if I am deciding on a keeper that is probably the direction I go.

Next up we have forwards who could be looking at some power-play opportunity.

Power-Play Forwards

This decision comes down to a number of factors. Max Pacioretty certainly has a flashy goal scoring upside, but also a huge risk. He played all of five games in 22-23 and worst case is something similar happens again. A slightly better case is that he plays, but with all of the time lost to injury and his age (currently 34) he has lost a step or three and is just not the same player he used to be (probably a very likely scenario). Pierre-Luc Dubois had the best season in 22-23, but there is a bit of a question mark as to how the deployment will shake out. During their playoff run LA used Anze Kopitar, Viktor Arvidsson, Kevin Fiala, and Adrien Kempe on the top power-play. All are still on the team so might have an inside track. There are some potentially weaker links, but it isn't necessarily clear how they will want to use PLD. For Matt Duchene, he likely reinforces a second line, but given how productive Dallas' top power-play was in 22-23, it seems unlikely he will supplant any one of them. Maybe they use Duchene as sort of a Max Domi replacement/improvement but Domi never really got about a 50 percent share of the power play in any game, and was fine, but not flashy overall.

In this case I keep Pierre-Luc Dubois. He had the best 22-23 and likely has the best shot at consistent power-play deployment.

Top Six Potential:

Reilly Smith had the best production in 22-23, but each of these players certainly had their moments. Tyler Bertuzzi in particular stepped up in Boston down the stretch (26 points in 28 games) when Boston was resting large portions of their top six. Going forward though each of their situations is a little different.

Smith has an opportunity to replace Jason Zucker in Pittsburgh. If he does so that would mean about 15 and a half minutes a night playing with Evgeni Malkin, and less than two minutes of second power-play time. That would be a downgrade on both counts (a minute and a half of total ice time, and 20 seconds on the power play) from his 22-23 numbers in Vegas. Malkin is likely an upgrade to William Karlsson though, one of Smith's most common linemates in 22-23.

It is a little less clear where Evan Rodrigues fits in Florida's lineup. If Florida reruns their playoff lines, the Anthony Duclair spot is open alongside Aleksander Barkov and Anton Lundell. That spot might also go to Eetu Luostarinen though. In Colorado, Rodrigues averaged almost 18 minutes a night and about two minutes on the power play. That Duclair spot (if he gets it) might only be worth 15-16 minutes a night and 1.5ish minutes of power-play time. So even if he does manage to slot in there we are looking at a big downgrade.

Bertuzzi showed some flashes when he got to play in the top six, namely with David Pastrnak and either Pavel Zacha or David Krejci. In Toronto, Ryan O'Reilly, Michael Bunting, and Alex Kerfoot are all gone which leaves several spots available. Bertuzzi and new addition Max Domi have a great shot at slotting into the top six given those holes. That means a very real possibility of playing with some combination of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander (assuming of course Toronto figures out its cap situation). The path to the top power play is a little less clear. During the playoffs Toronto put Ryan O'Reilly on the top unit instead of Nylander, but it isn't a given that Bertuzzi would slot into that spot instead of Nylander. If Bertuzzi takes the Bunting spot, he would be looking at something close to 16 minutes a night and a little less than two on the second power play. Both would be downgrades in ice time from his end of season run in Boston.

Overall I keep Bertuzzi here. Smith had the better season in 22-23 and has a reasonable shot a Zucker-like deployment with good linemates and ok production. Bertuzzi has at least a similar shot at top six deployment, with elite linemates. They have similar likely baseline production and risk levels, but Bertuzzi has a higher ceiling. That is true both on an individual level and in what players have accomplished in the various roles Smith and Bertuzzi are potentially going to fill.

That is all for this week.

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