The Journey: Bubble Keeper Prospects

Ben Gehrels

2023-07-29

Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

As you have probably noticed, this is Bubble Keeper Week at Dobber Hockey, where we try to help managers with the tough decisions at the fringe of their rosters. To keep or not to keep? This is the prospect edition for those of you in keeper and dynasty formats, and the focus will be on three tricky categories of players: Russians, defensive defensemen, and sandpaper pests. Prospects in each of these categories are often difficult to evaluate for various reasons.

Russian Prospects

It is impossible to ignore the impacts of Russia's ongoing war on Ukraine—even in the hockey world. The value of Russian prospects in general has taken a big hit as North American scouts are confined to watching video footage to make their assessments. Plus, dating back to the Red Army/Iron Curtain days with Igor Larionov & Co., and more recently the escapades of high-profile stars like Alexander Radulov and Ilya Kovalchuk, there has long been uncertainty around whether Russian prospects would ever come over to North America after being drafted. The allure of playing at home for comparable or sometimes even better money can be a powerful draw. All that said, if managers in your pools are getting cold feet on some of the following players, you might be able to acquire them on the cheap.

Arseni Gritsyuk (NJD)

I'm beginning to get cold feet on Gritsyuk, 22, as the Devils' top six gets increasingly crowded and competitive. He just signed a two-year contract with top KHL team SKA St. Petersburg after scoring an impressive 40 points in 66 games last year, so he will still be a bit of a wait. That contract was bad news for those of us who have been sitting on him for a year or two already. When he does come over—if—will he be good enough to justify having stashed for three or four years? If he's a bubble keeper option for you, there are probably more viable options out there for now. Verdict: Drop.

Marat Khusnutdinov (MIN)

Khusnutdinov, 21, is closer to seeing NHL action than Gritsyuk; he is signed for one more year with SKA, with whom he scored 41 points in 63 games last year. He has worn the captain's "C" for Russia at the WJC, a testament to his leadership intangibles, and plays a strong two-way game. He is one of the brightest prospects in a loaded Wild pipeline and should walk into a top six role next year as a 22-year-old on a cap-league-friendly entry-level contract. Verdict: Keep.

Nikolai Kovalenko (COL)

The Avalanche recently signed Kovalenko, 23, to a two-year entry-level contract, then loaned him back to Torpedo (KHL), where he scored 54 points in 56 games last year as their assistant captain. The sign-and-loan gives increased confidence in Kovalenko's imminent NHL debut. He plays either wing and likely slides into a top-six role right off the bat, potentially alongside superstar Nathan MacKinnon. He might not be a widely-known asset in fantasy yet, but that will change in a hurry. Think Andrei Kuzmenko lite. Verdict: Keep.

Quick Hits

Fyodor Svechkov (NAS) – Verdict: Keep.

Daniil Yurov (MIN) – Verdict: Keep.

Gleb Trikozov (CAR) – Verdict: Drop (outside of deep leagues)

Dmitry Rashevsky (WPG) – Verdict: Drop.

Defensive Defensemen

This is a tricky category of prospects that only makes sense to roster in multi-cat formats: smooth-skating, smart, physical defensemen who will likely rack up solid hit, block, plus-minus, and shot totals—but probably never much beyond 20-30 points—for your fantasy team because they will be leaned on to play major defensive minutes at the NHL level. My philosophy has generally been to grab players like that for free of the wire, but lately I have started to stockpile some of the following prospects in deep keepers with 30+ farm slots. The reason for that shift is noticing the extra pop in value that guys like Radko Gudas and Adam Larsson have carried over the years because they score and shoot just enough, on top of being consistent peripheral beasts, to outperform waiver options. You will always find those two on someone's roster, and some of these prospects will be the same.

Lian Bichsel (DAL)

I fell in love with Bichsel at the last WJC, and I was not alone. The way he not only completely smothered opposing forwards but also turned the puck smoothly back up ice again and again was a treat to watch. At 6-5, 216 lbs, Bichsel projects to be a physical force at the NHL level. His offensive ceiling has been the main question mark with him all along and the reason he may still be a bubble keeper on many fantasy teams. Six points in 42 SHL games last year is certainly not very impressive production, although he is still only 19 years old and that is a competitive men's league. He will begin to garner more attention this year when he joins Dallas' AHL affiliate. Verdict: Keep.

Helge Grans (PHI)

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Grans became slightly less obscure in fantasy when he was traded to Philly in the three-way trade that sent Ivan Provorov to Columbus. The Kings' second rounder from 2020, known for his size (6-3, 205 lbs), mobility, and passing, has progressed slowly. He spent the last three years playing professionally in the SHL and AHL. His production last year (nine points in 59 AHL games) was a noticeable step back from the year before (24 in 56), so next year will be critical for his continued development. He remains a decent prospect, and give him a boost if you're looking for a short timeline, but there are likely better options on the wire. Verdict: Drop.

Maveric Lamoureux (ARI)

This guy is known for being massive (6-7, 198 lbs) and for his parents making out when he was drafted. He is an ultra-physical former first-round pick (29th overall), so he will probably play NHL minutes eventually and be a hits tank. But he scored a mere 43 points in 89 QMJHL games over the past two years, and that is a league known for its inflated scoring totals. I do not see him scoring more than even 20 points a year in a Coyotes uniform, and that will make him difficult to roster—especially because big guys like him typically need 400 NHL games to really get going. Verdict: Drop.

Quick Hits:

Ryan Chesley (WAS) – Verdict: Drop.

Brock Faber (MIN) – Verdict: Keep.

Ethan Del Mastro (CHI) – Verdict: Keep.

Isaiah George (NYI) – Verdict: Drop.

Sandpaper Pests

Zach L'Heureux (NAS)

L'Heureux has played only 112 QMJHL games over the past three years (137 points) due to multiple suspensions. So the open questions with him are: Can he better regulate his style of play to avoid hurting his team? And does he have enough scoring punch to make an impact at the NHL level? After this past playoffs, Tkachuk-type players who score clutch goals and are not afraid to mix it up after the whistle are all the rage right now in fantasy. But do not confuse L'Heureux for a third Tkachuk brother. His clunky skating stride has historically been a concern, and he does not have the kind of junior production that prefigures a star-level NHLer. That said, he has value as a bit of a unicorn type who could one day put up 50 points and 1.5 hits per game as a Predator. Verdict: Keep.

Jamieson Rees (CAR)

After a solid Draft+1 campaign, Rees headed to the AHL, where he has shown steady improvement, posting 14, 24, and 42 points over the past three years. He is known for his physicality, intensity, and skill—a valuable combination if everything breaks right. Being one of the leading scorers on the AHL affiliate of a team like the Canes who have a very strong pipeline is nothing to sneeze at. He is likely one of Carolina's top candidates for call ups heading into 2023-24. Like L'Heureux, Rees likely has a middle-six NHL ceiling where he could produce 50 points or so with a whack of hits and penalty minutes (he had 92 in 65 games last year). Verdict: Keep.

Will Cuylle (NYR)

Cuylle, 21, is known for hard hits and even harder shots. Outside of those two assets, however, his skill set has historically been somewhat lacking. That said, his 45 points in 69 AHL games last year prove that he can thrive in a top professional league and suggest that he will soon be asked to contribute at the NHL level. He knows how to leverage his big frame (6-3, 212 lbs) to inject energy and physicality into a lineup. If he gets into a few Rangers games, throws a few big hits, and scores a goal, his hype will peak. As Snoop Dogg says, stay ready so you don't need to get ready. Verdict: Keep.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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