Dobber’s 18th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide PDF and Draft List spreadsheet is *NOW* available!! In fact, it was made available two days earlier than originally projected. Sleepers, rookies, stock drops, goalies, schedule breakdown, team-by-team projections and analysis, and more! Buy it as a standalone product, or get it as a discount as part of a package.

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Some more summer hockey reading for you: We will be starting the Offseason Fantasy Grades team articles in less than two weeks. The first article is scheduled to appear on Tuesday August 8, and they will continue into September. You will be able to find the links to all of them here. For now, you can scroll down and read last season's articles and review how things are a year later.

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Yesterday I listed off forwards that I need to make a keeper league decision on, of which there were quite a few. I don't have as many defensemen and goalies to decide on, so I'll combine them today.

In this particular league, defensemen are given bonus points for goals and assists. As a result, some below-top-tier fantasy defensemen will automatically become free agents because their league points exceed the maximum allowable point limit and they are not under contract. (These are owner-assigned contracts from bidding before the season and are not the same as real-life contracts used in a salary cap league, even though this league uses a salary cap.)

That rule means that defensemen that could be bubble keepers in other leagues such as Jared Spurgeon, Filip Hronek, Mike Matheson, and Dmitry Orlov are automatically headed to the league's free agency. I can still bid on them and can even give them a hometown discount by matching any offer. For those in my league who might happen to be reading this, I won't completely tip my hand as to how I will rank them. The Fantasy Guide has projections on each, where they are very similarly ranked. However, I might be less inclined to bid on Orlov compared to the others given the lack of power-play time that he might receive on a loaded Carolina blueline.

Fantasy Take: Orlov Adds New Dimension to Carolina Blue Line

Fantasy Impact: Tony DeAngelo Signs with Hurricanes

Here are the rest of the players (defensemen and goalies) that I need to make a keeper decision on:

Pierre-Olivier Joseph

Dobber wrote about Joseph as his Penguins Lowdown player in the fantasy guide. He noted several concerns with Joseph, including the possible emergence of Ty Smith and Joseph's lack of icetime. Smith will no longer be waivers-exempt, which could force a training camp battle between the two. The acquisition of Ryan Graves as a left-shot defenseman also hinders Joseph potentially moving up the depth chart.

When I first added Joseph a few seasons ago, I did so under the impression that he might one day inherit the PP1 slot of Kris Letang and log major minutes. Last season, Joseph averaged just 15 minutes per game. Although Letang demonstrated signs of slowing down last season, he still has five years remaining on his current contract. So as things stand this season, Joseph has to compete with Letang, Smith, and Jeff Petry for power-play minutes. Also, what if the Penguins were to acquire Erik Karlsson? I'm sure the Pens would send San Jose a defenseman or two in return, but the point remains. With the Penguins trying to keep their playoff window open, this might be a tough season for the 24-year-old Joseph to break through.

Victor Soderstrom

Soderstrom faces a similar problem to Joseph in that he might have difficulty breaking through for power-play time. The Dobber's Lowdown for the Coyotes features the potential battle between Juuso Valimaki and Sean Durzi (which you'll have to read about for the analysis of this situation). Those are just two of the defensemen. J.J. Moser is another, although he might serve in more of an all-around role for the Yotes.

The good news for Soderstrom is that he'll likely play in the NHL full-time this season. He is still waivers-exempt, but he was a regular on the Coyotes blueline once he was recalled in February. The Coyotes defense is also very much in flux, as no projected NHL defenseman is signed beyond this season (all are RFA except for Josh Brown and Troy Stecher, though). With the Coyotes likely set for another season of rebuilding, they could decide to go in a very different direction if they want to. Soderstrom is only 22, but we could find out this season where he fits into their plans.

Pheonix Copley

As a Cal Petersen owner, I grabbed Copley as soon as I could when Petersen was sent to the AHL. So far, Copley has fit perfectly with the Zero G (or maybe more like minimal G) strategy that I'm using in this league. Previously a (mostly) career AHLer, Copley led all Kings goalies last season with 37 games played in spite of not appearing in a game until December 6. He didn't provide outstanding goaltending (.903 SV%), but he played well enough to help the Kings win the majority of the time, as evidenced by his 24-6-3 record.

He will have some real competition between the pipes this season, though. Cam Talbot has been signed to a one-year contract worth $1 million. Talbot was a workhorse earlier in his career, but now he's in a spot where he's trying to stay healthy for an entire season. Although Talbot could be the opening-night starter for the Kings, I could see Copley playing in more games this season. For a playoff-bound team like the Kings, that could result in plenty of wins. There are certainly worse goalies to keep this season, although I'm not so sure what Copley can offer for the longer-term.

Mads Sogaard

Sogaard is listed as #6 on Dobber's Top 50 Fantasy Prospect Goaltender rankings. That may seem high, but Dobber factors in expected arrival into the rankings. Because of the Senators' goaltending injuries, Sogaard has already played NHL games, which would have let the cat out of the bag on Sogaard in numerous keeper leagues. Depending on how deep your league is, 22 years of age might be the time to add a keeper goalie, even if that goalie isn't expected to arrive in the NHL for another few seasons.

If you're in a non-keeper format, Sogaard simply isn't an option this season. The five-year signing of Joonas Korpisalo cemented that. Anton Forsberg is signed for two more seasons, so Sogaard's window appears to open after that. At a minimum, he appears to need at least one more season in the AHL anyway (3.47 GAA, .893 SV% in AHL in 2022-23). He's already 73% rostered in Fantrax, so it's not like he's a secret to those in the know anyway. Retain him if you can, since he may be the Sens' goalie of the future.

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I saw this tweet (post?) and realized I had something to say about this topic, since I wrote about exactly this in the Fantasy Guide.

Kind of incredible that more people are not talking about Jake Guentzel being a UFA after this season. He's likely going to be able to command $9.5M+

Then you realize the 2024 UFA class could be crazy awesome

— Pat Quinn (not that one) (@FHPQuinn) July 27, 2023

To clarify, I wrote the Contract Year sections for each team. The emphasis is usually on players who might have a little extra incentive to perform because their next contract is on the line, but there are also implications for the teams involved. Also, don't assume that every player on this list will hit the market on July 1, 2024. At this point, these are players that "could" hit the market, so I have not included RFAs. There are many more that qualify here, but these are the players that I think are the most fantasy-relevant options.

Jake DeBrusk

Elias Lindholm

Teuvo Teravainen

Devon Toews

Joe Pavelski

Matt Duchene

David Perron

Shayne Gostisbehere

Sam Reinhart

Brandon Montour

Viktor Arvidsson

Mats Zuccarello

Tyson Barrie

Tyler Toffoli

Blake Wheeler

Jake Guentzel

Anthony Duclair

Jordan Eberle

Steven Stamkos

Auston Matthews

William Nylander

Tyler Bertuzzi

Max Domi

John Klingberg

Jonathan Marchessault

Max Pacioretty

Mark Scheifele

Connor Hellebuyck

Compare that to this year's list, which included Duchene, Wheeler, Bertuzzi, Domi, Klingberg, and Pacioretty, but there were also no real star players on the list. Think of how crazy a free agency period with Matthews would be. If the Leafs somehow lose Matthews, do they take another run at Stamkos? Does Nylander also fit into their long-term plan? I doubt that Hellebuyck would make it to the free agent market, but wouldn't it be fun to think about how much he could command? Just thinking out loud because it's the middle of summer and there isn't a lot of news, let alone hockey.

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