Top 10 Long-Term Players Who Didn’t Make the Guide

Tom Collins

2023-08-07

Once again for Dobber’s fantasy guide, I contributed a column talking about 20 non-rookie players who probably won’t do much this season, but will be awesome in a few years.

Normally when I finish this column for the guide, I have a grouping of leftover players that didn’t make the final list as there are just too many young players that take longer to become fantasy relevant.

However, this year, I wound up with numerous players that didn’t make the guide for another reason: I was 50-50 on whether they would be fantasy relevant this season. For these players, I could easily envision scenarios where they continue to struggle and could be a couple of years away; at the same time, it was easy to come up with situations where they could exceed expectations right away.

With that said, here are the top 10 players that didn’t make my column in the guide.

10. Cody Glass

The former sixth-overall pick from 2017 has struggled to live up to lofty expectations from being such a high draft pick, but the 24-year-old has seen his production increase whenever he gets to play at least a quarter of the season. Last year, he played 72 games and hit a career high in every statistical category, although he topped out at 35 points. Towards the end of February, he started getting more ice time and an increased role on the power play. From February 21 to the end of the season, he averaged 17:03 per night and 65.4 percent of the Preds’ power-play minutes, and had 16 points in 28 games. He seemed to produce more as he got more comfortable in his new role, and finished with eight points in his last 11 games. Now, with some of the major Preds players from last year on new teams, Glass could be in a top-six role for the entire season.

9. Kent Johnson

Johnson had a better-than-expected rookie season, finishing with 39 points in 79 games. That was pretty good considering last year’s Columbus team had a mess of injuries. The Jackets should be much improved, but there’s already talk of Patrik Laine moving to center, and there has to be a concern that Adam Fantilli will swoop in and command a top-six spot as well. That would leave Johnson and Kirill Marchenko battling for the final top-six spot, which would go a long way to determining if Johnson can have his breakout season.

8. Kirby Dach

I wrote in the guide that it may take a while for the Montreal youth to start producing consistently. They have Alex Newhook, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and potentially Owen Beck, Joshua Roy or another prospect making the squad. And that doesn’t take into account the young defensemen. The Habs also consistently deal with injuries, which hurts overall production. Dach has one 70-game season in his four-year career, so injuries are always a concern for him. He also averages fewer than two shots per game, and last season, almost doubled his shooting percentage, which led to a career-high in goals. However, when healthy, he was great for the Habs, finishing with a 54-point pace and playing on the top line for a significant chunk of the season. If he can get back to that usage and stay healthy, he could be in line for a 60-point season.

7. Barrett Hayton

I still think he’s a year or two away from hitting his full potential, and I can envision a scenario where Arizona struggles (again!) and Hayton’s production drops as not every player sees a year-over-year linear increase in points. Hayton has slowly been getting more productive each season and last year finished with 19 goals and 43 points in 82 games. He averaged over two shots for the first time in his career, saw his power-play time increase by almost 50 seconds per contest and his overall ice time up by almost a minute and a half per night. He’s about to hit his 200-game breakthrough threshold. All positives, and good signs for him to break out this season.

6. Jesperi Kotkaniemi

This was probably the guy I struggled the most with. I see a lot of talk that Kotkaniemi will be the second-line center in Carolina this season, but he spent a good chunk last year as the number-two center. His most frequent linemates were Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov, which is pretty impressive considering Svechnikov missed almost 20 games due to injury. I could see a scenario where Kotkaniemi sees a modest gain in production this season, topping out at about 50 points. There’s also the scenario where everything clicks for him and he flirts with 70 points.

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5. Bowen Byram

The Avs rearguard is a player I’ve mentioned in the guide before, but he seems poised to take the next step this year. Last year, he had a 47-point pace, which was preceded by a 46-point pace the previous campaign. Injuries have derailed his overall production, as he has played a max of 42 games in a season, which has led to a career high of 24 points. If he can stay healthy this year, he could flirt with 50 points. That’s a big ask, but even 70 games will get him to a 40-point “breakout season.”

4. Jusso Valimaki

Valimaki’s production all depends on what Arizona decides to do with the power play. Last year, J.J. Moser was the squad’s surprise player at the start of the season, getting more power-play time (and production) than many of us had anticipated. Then there’s the shiny new toy of Sean Durzi to worry about, and who knows if this is the season that the team gives Victor Soderstrom his opportunity. However, Valimaki was excellent in the second half last year, and excelled once Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun were dealt away. Gostisbehere was injured for part of last year before the trade, and from January 26 until his trade on March 1, played only four games for the Coyotes. From January 26 to the end of the year, Valimaki had 22 points in 34 games while playing 22:34 per night and on the ice for 58 percent of Arizona’s power-play minutes. In his first 44 games, he had 12 points while averaging 14:47 per contest and 22.5 percent of Arizona’s man-advantage minutes.

3. Jamie Drysdale

Like Valimaki, this will all depend on what the Ducks decide to do this season. Will the Ducks choose to give the 21-year-old Drysdale the chance to earn the top power-play opportunity? Or do they go back to Cam Fowler, the 31-year-old veteran who had a career-high 48 points last year, but hasn’t had 20 power-play points in a season since 2010-11 (and had only 14 last year)? Drysdale was also limited to eight games last year due to a shoulder injury, so we would have to see if that has any lingering impacts at the start of the season.

2. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

A lot of fantasy general managers are high on Devon Levi, but Levi is a 21-year-old that has a total of seven professional games. He’s never been in the AHL, and the NHL isn’t exactly known for 21-year-old superstar netminders. Craig Anderson has retired, Eric Comrie has never reached the 20-game-in-a-single-season mark, Devin Cooley has never played in the NHL, and the Sabres haven’t signed or traded for a netminder this offseason. This opens the door for Luukkonen to get the bulk of the starts this year. If the Sabres are to push for a playoff spot, then Luukkonen might be an underrated netminder heading into drafts.

1. Kaapo Kakko

The 22-year-old didn’t miss a game last year, the first time he’s accomplished that feat in his four-year career. That goes a long way to explaining why he set career highs in goals, assists and points. While he is mostly known for playing on the third line (aka the Kid line with Alexis Lafreniere and Filip Chytil), he did see some time in a top-six role (his next two most frequent linemates last year were Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider). The team lost Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane in the offseason, and replaced them with Blake Wheeler. While we’re still a month away from training camp, many projections have Kakko taking the team’s number one right winger position. If that happens and he gets even a sniff of power-play time, this could be a great season for Kakko.

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