Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Anaheim Ducks

Michael Clifford

2023-08-08

For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 21st annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

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Be sure to pick up your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.

Gone –Derek Grant, Max Comtois John Moore, Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitry Kulikov, John Klingberg, Nathan Beaulieu, Scott Harrington, Simon Benoit, Olli Juolevi, Anthony Stolarz

Incoming – Alex Killorn, Radko Gudas, Robert Hagg

Impact of Changes – The incoming players are a handful of veterans with Killorn being the guy with the Stanley Cups they chose to be a mentor. Gudas gives them a good defensive defenceman who will make life miserable for opposing forwards while Hagg is capable of playing bottom-pair minutes. Killorn's defensive play has fallen off with age, but he can skate a second-line role on a rebuilding roster for the time being. The two defencemen are upgrades over most of what was on the roster last year, and Killorn gives them a 20-goal left winger for the top-6.

It is the outgoing players that matter the most here. There are 11 now-former Ducks on that ‘Gone’ list and eight of them (!) are blue liners. Five of those guys played at least 50 games for Anaheim last season so there is a significant amount of turnover here. Shattenkirk is a loss because he still has some juice left in his game, but everyone else was very replaceable. In fact, of the 193 defencemen with at least 600 minutes played in 2022-23, Klingberg, Benoit, and Beaulieu were all in the bottom-12 by expected goals against impacts. Anaheim alone had five blue liners in the bottom-50 by goals against impact, and four of those five are not returning (Colton White remains). For that reason, Gudas and Hagg just being close to average defensively would be a huge improvement for the team and helps their goaltenders a lot.

If Killorn goes to the top PP unit, along with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry, it leaves one spot for one of Mason McTavish, Adam Henrique, Frank Vatrano, and Ryan Strome. If Henrique gets left off, he goes from 55-point potential to 45-point potential. McTavish has the inside track for PP1 minutes.

Ready for Full Time – It’s complicated.

The term "full time" might be a bit misleading for Anaheim this year. They cleared out the blue line, seemingly in anticipation of not only Olen Zellweger making the team, but maybe someone like Pavel Mintyukov or Drew Helleson as well. Mintyukov won OHL Defenceman of the Year and has really come along nicely over the last couple seasons. He will almost certainly start the campaign in the AHL but once under-performance or injuries rear their heads for the NHL roster, a long-term call-up seems possible as long as Mintyukov or Helleson keep up their progression.

The only forward to watch is Leo Carlsson. He was taken 2nd overall in the 2023 Draft and the expectation is either he goes back to Sweden for a season, or he'll step into the NHL lineup right away. It is likely a third-line role if he does go to the NHL, getting sheltered minutes behind the veterans. That means less talented line mates, though. At time of writing, we still don't have clarity on where he's playing in 2023-24. Benoit Olivier-Groulx should be in the mix but he’s not reliable for a full fantasy season.

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Anaheim shedding a bunch of defencemen leaves room for the young guys to get their turn in the lineup. It is difficult to say any of them plays 75 games, but they should all get looks, and Zellweger is more than capable of locking down a depth spot.

Dostal looked to have the backup role in his mitts with Stolarz moving on, but Anaheim signed Alex Stalock on Monday afternoon. This is to give them some insurance and it will limit Dostal’s starts this season.

Fantasy Outlook – An improved blue line should not only help the John Gibson/Dostal/Stalock goaltending trio, but help the offence move the puck as well. They had far too many shifts pinned in their own zone and just limiting the opposition should help their offensive stars regain prior form. Gibson, in particular, is an intriguing name given all the rumours about him being traded. It could mean a lot more starts for Dostal sooner rather than later, and behind an improved defence when compared to 2022-23.

Jamie Drysdale missed almost all of 2022-23 due to injury but remains one of the top young defencemen in the NHL. All the outgoing rearguards should assure him at least second-pair minutes, if not on the top pair, and he could make a nice late grab in a lot of fantasy formats.

Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras were often split last season and it'll be interesting to see if the new coaching staff does the same. They are the team's two best players so leaving them apart necessarily downgrades their line mates, even if it helps lengthen the scoring a little bit. Having them back together on the top line in training camp would be nice to see for us fantasy owners.

Mason McTavish had a very good rookie season but got 41% of his goal total on the power play. As mentioned earlier, he is not guaranteed a top PP spot, and that's concerning for his short-term fantasy value. The team should give him some run, but holding onto that role is another matter. A better offensive environment should help his point totals, anyway, and 50 points are well within reach.

Fantasy Grade – C+ (last year C+)

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