Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a H2H keep eight league with categories of G, A, Pts, PPPts, SOG, +\-, HIT, GWG, SV%, W, GAA, a GM is leaning toward keeping Jason Robertson, Jack Hughes, Trevor Zegras, Andrei Svechnikov, Jake Guentzel, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brandon Montour and Nikolaj Ehlers. Should any be swapped out for Travis Konecny, Tyler Bertuzzi, Marco Rossi, and/or Seth Jarvis?

Missing from the post is how many start at each position. That's important in assessing the value of Montour, as if 30%+ of active line-up skaters are defensemen, then he's probably a keep because of the numbers game but also since none of the other skater options are so great as to be a clear keep over him.

If Montour is kept, then the possible non-keeps among the projected keepers are Zegras, Guentzel, or Ehlers. For certain I'm not keeping Rossi, who might not even be draftable, let alone keepable, or Jarvis, who plays for a team which has very balanced scoring and he isn't a top option as yet. The question is if either Bertuzzi or Konecny makes more sense as a keeper than Zegras, Ehlers, or Guentzel. Ehlers should finally get a chance to show his true talent; but it'll be for a Jets team that's had its offense gutted, so it's a good news bad news situation. Zegras should be a special player, but perhaps not for a few more seasons until Anaheim rounds into form. Still, he has home run potential; and to miss out on that would be a tough pill to swallow. Guentzel has become a less explosive scorer and is weak on the PP; but the Pens seem to be gearing up for one last Cup push, and Guentzel will be playing for a UFA deal.

As for the options of who could be kept, Bertuzzi played superbly for the Bs, should be in the top-six for the high octane Leafs, bet on himself by signing a one year deal, and, until last season, had seen his scoring and SOG rates increase every campaign. Konecny shined even without Sean Couturier, who should be back and in his usual form. Both will also be UFAs in 2024.

I think Ehlers, due to years of not living up to expectations and the Jets being perceived as a weaker team following the exodus of Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois, is probably an easier redraft than any of the others, so I'm not keeping him. Zegras I think is hold and hope, while Guentzel probably is a wise keep given his situation. That leaves the Ehlers spot for Bertuzzi and Konecny. To me, Bertuzzi gets the slight edge given what we saw from him at the end of last season and playing for the Leafs, but it's close enough that Konecny could be justifiable.

Topic #2 – In a ten team, keep six, roto league with 18 player rosters (2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G starting) and limits of 99 games per year per skater position and 82 per goalie, with daily roster moves and a maximum of 100 waiver wire transactions per year and categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPPts, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SV% and SV, a GM is set on keeping Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Adam Fox, leaving two spots for Erik Karlsson, Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and Andrei Svechnikov? Who should the six keepers be?

With line-ups that consist of 4D out of 11 skaters, and a whole category for defensemen points, I'm making room for one of Karlsson and Morrissey, and it has to be Karlsson. Yes, he's not getting any younger but he also was so amazing and has a track record, unlike Morrissey, who I cover more in a question below.

That leaves Svech versus Connor. Having HIT and SOG helps Svech, but I think this is Connor by a pretty clear margin. Keep in mind that just 14 NHLers have more cumulative points that Connor over the past four seasons. Yes, I did say above that Winnipeg has been gutted; but Connor has shown enough to leave me confident he can create offense, especially since the team still has Mark Scheifele, plus Cole Perfetti should be able to take the next step. Yes, Connor did play a lot with Dubois and they found success together, but I'm confident Connor can step up and perform at or near the same level even for a less potent Jets team.

As for Svech, with every passing season it becomes more in doubt as to whether he will become the big time scorer many envisioned. His SOG and PPPt rates didn't improve versus 2021-22 and that was despite nearly a full minute more of overall TOI and 17 seconds more per game on the PP. His IPP on the PP is downright lousy, to the point where he could cede his PP1 spot. Add to that the fact he's never had a 70% overall IPP, and I'm just not sure he's cut from a scoring cloth. Or to put it another way, Svech is still a solid multi-cat option; but in a side-by-side comparison between him and Connor, I'm taking Connor without much hesitation. The two additional keeps are Karlsson and Connor.

Topic #3 – In a 14 Team Roto Keep 25; 12 F, 6 D, 2 G; 10 Farm; 5 Bench; 5 IR, $101.5M cap league with categories of G, A, Pts, PIM, Hits, BS, SOG, F Points, D Points; Win+Ties+SO, GAA, SV%, a team needs to trim three of the following goalies Dustin Wolf, Daniil Tarasov (both on farm), Jeremy Swayman, Frederick Andersen, Joonas Korpisalo, Pheonix Copley and Elvis Merzlikins. Which four should be kept?

Right off the bat I'm taking Copley out of the running. Name me the last goalie who first made his mark in the NHL at age 30 after basically a decade in the AHL? Yes, I get that goalies can be late bloomers; however, this is too late. And when you look at Copley's numbers, they weren't all that great, with a SV% just above .900 and a barely positive GSAA. Beyond that, nearly one in five of his starts were really bad starts. I cannot see a universe in which Copley somehow is able to lock himself into a starting role. He's a career minor leaguer who I think is far more likely to find his way back there than he is to make any sort of sustained NHL impact.

Count me also as not a Korpisalo fan at all. Yes, Ottawa is paying him as if they envision him being their starter; and the Avs did something similar with Alexander Georgiev, who proceeded to tie for the league lead in wins. Only twice prior to last season did Korpisalo have a positive GSAA, and likewise only twice a 50.0%+ quality start percentage. He's also 29, and had his share of chances, as he played in 22+ games each of the past three seasons. Looking at goalies who likewise had five of their first seven seasons with a GSAA under zero and a QS% under 50% dating back to 2000-21, we get the likes of David Rittich, Louis Domingue, Anders Nilsson, Anders Lindback, Dan Ellis, Curtis McElhinney, Kari Ramo and Ondrej Pavelec. While of course past results don't dictate future outcomes, looking at those names would you keep Korpisalo? Yup, neither would I.

After that though, it gets sticky. I do like the idea of keeping both Columbus netminders, as the Blue Jackets seem like a team which could surprise and this would cover their goaltending bases. But I think that Merzlikins did poorly enough last season as to be a potential redraft, which would not be a viable option for Swayman, who holds great promise, and Andersen, who has a top tier team in front of him and will be winding down just as the farm guys start to make their marks. So I'm keeping Wolf, Tarasov, Swayman, and Andersen, dropping Merzlikins (redraft), Copley, and Korpisalo.

Topic #4 – Who is the better keeper, Josh Morrissey or Brandon Montour?

This seems like an especially apt comparison, as both posted 37 points in the 2021-22 campaign and then went ahead and scored at double or nearly double that rate in 2022-23. Morrissey did so in his age 28 season, while for Montour it was his age 29 campaign. But Montour's explosion coincided with his 400 game breakout threshold, while for Morrissey it was just after that had occurred. Still, I don't think even their most passionate supporters would suggest that either one could be counted upon – at least not after only one season – for production at that level. Could they do it again? Yes, of course. But should they be predicted to do so? That's en entirely different story. To me it doesn't boil down to who's better, but who was more "for real" amongst the two.

In Florida, Montour benefits from playing on a team with among the best forward corps of the entire NHL. That generates scoring, although if those forwards are point magnets, Montour might have a difficult time factoring into the goals that are scored. And although that might have once been a similar "problem" for Morrissey, the exodus of Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois has seemingly hurt the Winnipeg offense. Long story short, Montour will be playing under essentially comparable circumstances in 2023-24 as 2022-23, while the same can't be said for Morrissey.

But with Montour, there is the lurking Aaron Ekblad factor, and let's not forget that in 2021-22 Ekblad scored at an even higher rate than Montour did last season, and is younger than Montour despite having played in more career games. Beyond that, in a ten-game stretch which spanned part of October and November while Ekblad was out, Montour posted 14 points. That means in his other 70 games, where Ekblad was also in the line-up, Montour tallied 59 points, for a scoring rate of 70 points, which is still very good but a step down from his season-long pace. There is also the reality that Florida was one of the only – if not the only – team to commit to a PP1 that included two defensemen. And with no shortage of capable forwards, if one of Ekblad or Montour was to falter, it would be easy to envision them being elbowed out of the PP1 picture. Although the second unit would have some pretty good forwards on it, Florida is a team which does not give even time to both units, so the step down from PP1 to PP2 would be huge.

As for Morrissey, let's not forget that Neal Pionk scored at a 52 point pace in the 2019-20 campaign, but also has seen his scoring drop in three straight seasons. Morrissey's "spot" seems to be more secure. Still, the fact that Pionk was once the top dog and has the capability to produce does raise at least back of the mind concerns. But no question Morrissey's place in the pecking order seems safer than Montour's.

We don't know if peripherals count, so let's look at luck metrics. Montour's SOG rate rose by a full shot per game yet his SH% dropped by not even 10%, lending credibility to his goal total. This is in contrast to Morrissey, whose SOG rate was unchanged but he shot at 9.3% versus 6.9% for 2021-22, which represented a career high. My first thought was it was due to PPGs; but he had a mere two on 28 PPSOG in 2022-23, versus six PPGs on 42 PPSOG in 2021-22. That is not a good sign, as it makes Morrissey's SH% for 2022-23 seem all the more unsustainable.

And the answer doesn't lie in posts and crossbars, as Morrissey's total for 2022-23 was six, versus a nearly identical five for 2021-22. So it does seem Morrissey lucked into four more goals that he should've received. But still, that is essentially the same boost Montour had due to higher than normal scoring with Ekblad out of the line-up. But Ekblad is Band-Aid Boy, such that counting on him to miss games is a safer bet than Morrissey shooting nearly double digits.

As for IPPs, neither one had outstanding rates both in general and versus their prior seasons. But Montour's were more in keeping with his past than Morrissey, both in general and on the PP. Yet Morrissey had the lower secondary assist percentage at 43.3% versus Montour's 54.4%. Yet again things seem to cancel out.

In the end, it's nearly a dead heat. I'm taking the guy who plays for the team that should be better offensively, namely Montour. But it's close enough that Morrissey would be a justifiable choice as well.

Topic #5 – In an eight team cap league where 7F, 4D and 1G can be kept and rosters are 12F, 6D, 2G starting and 3F, 2D, 1G on the bench and skater scoring is points only, which is the better side to own:

Option #1 – Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Shea Theodore, Jakub Chychrun

Option #2 – Mitch Marner, Nico Hischier, Cale Makar, Tony DeAngelo

This being a points only league is helpful, as is knowing the starting line-ups, as defensemen seem to have more value here than they would in most leagues. Not by a lot, but enough to matter a bit more than usual. One other key is the Option #1 side has more of a band-aid boy factor than the other, although with DeAngelo the worry is if he gets benched if somehow he does not pan out.

The way I go about this is to consider the realistic floor and ceiling for each player, and then value them in the middle. For Kucherov, I have his ceiling as 125 and floor as 100, for a 112.5 points average. Guentzel, who's coming off a down year but playing for a UFA contract, I'd put at 90 ceiling and 75 floor, for an 82.5 average. Theodore is tough because he misses games like clockwork, so factoring in that he'll likely play 65-70 games his ceiling is 55 and his floor is 45, for a 50 average, which, when adding in the points one should receive from the player who is put into the line-up for him if/when he's hurt, puts those numbers at 60 and 50, for a 55 point average. Chychrun also is an injury risk, so let's put him down for 60 games, in which case I'd see him with a ceiling of 45 points and a floor of 33, for an average of 39, which, when we add the replacement point value, should put those numbers at 52 and 40, for a 46 average. So the average point total for the four players is 296.

The second group has Marner at a ceiling of 110 and a floor of 95, for an average of 102.5. As for Hischier, his gap is tighter – a high of 85 and low of 75 – for an average of 80. Makar likely will miss games, but I've got him at 70 total, with a ceiling of 80 points and a low of 65, putting his average at 72.5, but when factoring in the added scoring of the player who replaces him, that puts him at 85 and 70, for an average of 77.5. DeAngelo is back on Carolina, where things went well for him. Still, he has a big gap because he could either thrive or really struggle. So I have his ceiling at 65 and floor at 35, for an average of 52.5. So the total average points for the second group is 307.5.

In the end it's a close one, but option #2 should be the better of the two. I also like it as a choice due to the lower injury risk overall.

Topic #6 – Was Hampus Lindholm's output last season a fluke, tied to Boston's great season; or is he for real?

Lost amid the breakouts of the likes of Brandon Montour, Josh Morrissey, and Vince Dunn, is the fact that Hampus Lindholm, in his tenth full season, scored at a 53 point pace, which is a big deal considering he'd never previously topped a 37 point scoring rate.

When looking at what happened, clearly the PP was a huge factor, as Lindholm tallied 17 PPPts while essentially sharing PP QB duties with Charlie McAvoy, with 17 being more than double what Lindholm had ever posted except for one season. But looking at his PP IPP over the years, it seems like Lindholm might've always had this in him, as although he didn't get much PP time while he was in Anaheim, his PP IPP was 72.7% or higher in each of his prior three seasons. I'd say he likely will get a chance to put up similar numbers in man advantage scoring. But the concern is McAvoy is a "golden boy" and still at an age where he can and should be improving in the normal course, such that if Lindholm does falter on the PP, he's more apt to lose his spot than I'd say McAvoy would be if he somehow fared worse. But again, with PP IPPs so great in recent seasons, my guess is Lindholm will continue to fare well on the PP and get similar minutes and, in turn, points.

Lindholm tied his career best for SOG per game, but his SH% was barely above his career rate, so that is not a sign of concern. Where I do worry, however, is Lindholm, despite playing for the Bruins, had an OZ% of 46.5%, which was actually a good bit lower than his prior two seasons.

Why is that a trouble sign? It put him in the bottom 75 among all d-men who played 41+ games, with just two d-men who had a lower OZ% (Filip Hronek, Darnell Nurse) even managing a point per every other game scoring pace and both not nearing Lindholm's pace. So unless the Bs are as great in 2023-24 as they were in 2022-23 (unlikely given retirements), or Lindholm sees more ice time in the offensive zone, that could hurt his ability to replicate his scoring.

The Bs are paying Lindholm a nice chunk of change, and they showed that by giving him PP time to rival that of McAvoy, who was – and still remains – regarded as one of the best up and coming d-men in the NHL. But Lindholm's OZ% is a concern, such that I think him besting a 50 point scoring pace again, especially with the Bs having lost Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, will be a tall order, and a 45-50 point pace is likely more realistic with a better chance of landing below 45 than above 50.

Topic #7 – Was Jesperi Kotkatniemi's strong end of season play a sign of him finally rounding into form, or just a short term scoring burst upon which he won't be able to build?

On the one hand, you can rightfully say that Kotkaniemi just turned 23 last month; however, on the other you can point out he's played 319 games and last season marked the first time – and just barely – that he posted point per every other game scoring. It is true that he had 18 of his 43 total points in just his last 22 games, but his ice times, both overall and on the PP, were about the same as they were in Q1, as were his quality of linemates, yet then he had five points in 22 games. Plus, even while Kotkaniemi was posting those 18 points, he failed to average even two SOG per game, and in fact has never finished a season with a SOG per game rate above 1.70.

Given that he's been in the league five seasons, there should be enough data to examine player comparables. Among centers who, like him, never averaged 1.8 SOG per game nor scored at a 0.6 points per game rate in any of their first full five seasons while playing 36+ games each season, all by age 25, we get eight others dating back to 1990-91: Brett Howden, Alexander Burmistrov, Maxime Talbot, Patrik Stefan, Boyd Devereaux, Stephane Yelle, Jason Wiemer, and Jeff Shantz. I'll pause so Kotkatniemi owners have a chance to clean up their vomit, as this is not a group with which one wants to find they have this many data points in common. There is no sugarcoating it – if the last 30+ seasons are any indication, Kotkaniemi is not likely to pan out. And we can't blame it on Kotmaniemi having entered the league at 18, as several others on the list were the same or nearly the same age when they finished their fifth season.

Still, we can't ignore that Kotkaniemi is inked to a deal that not only runs through 2029-30 but also pays him $4.82M per season. That gives the Canes – or, if he's traded, his new team – plenty of incentive to see him succeed. Looking at the Carolina depth chart, it is realistic for him to be used as a second line center in 2023-24, something that's yet to consistently occur. The benefit of him playing on Carolina is the team is balanced both in terms of depth and ice time, meaning he should get decent minutes and have capable linemates.

But here's the issue – looking back at 2022-23, Kotkaniemi was already being slotted alongside top six talent. Yet if we subtract his 18 points in 22 games for Q4 the remainder of his season was downright dismal, with only 25 points in 60 games. As noted he doesn't shoot, plus 17 of his 25 assists were secondary.

Moreover, although Kotkaniemi's overall IPP was 69.4% and 69.0% in 2022-23 and 2021-22 respectively, which are pretty impressive numbers, that begs the question as to why he didn't have more points. The answer is scoring dropped when he was on the ice. Need proof? One of his most frequent linemates all season was Andrei Svechnikov; and in the 357 minutes Svech shared the ice with Kotkaniemi, a total of 13 goals were scored, versus 32 in the 531 minutes without Kotkaniemi. That paints a picture of Kotkaniemi being a player who, despite finding ways to factor into scoring, is someone who, when he's on the ice, does not lead to as many goals being scored. And a very good IPP in only a positive if it's accompanied by the player prompting goals be scored in the first place.

Those holding out hope for Kotkaniemi to become any semblance of the player envisioned when he was drafted third overall should prepare for the very real chance he's simply never going to amount to anything notable. I'd say he might peak at 50-55 points, if even that.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.