Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and this week, Peter Harling, pinch-hitting for Dobber

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1. I’m going to run through my top- and bottom-five signings from free-agency thus far (that means early extensions aren’t included).

Top-Five:

1)v Jeremy Swayman and Filip Gustavsson

One year at $3.475 million (arbitration) & Three years at $3.75M

Getting a young starting goalie locked up for under $4 million is a great bargain for a team with playoff aspirations, as it allows the team to spend some of that money elsewhere. Both Swayman and Gustavsson put up excellent numbers last year, and look primed to do so again this year. They both have a veteran starter to share the crease with, so neither will see a heavy 60-start workload, but even in 40+ games they can be top-15 fantasy goalies because of their exceptional peripherals.

Ilya Samsonov falls under these criteria as well, though his fantasy upside is more on the volume side of the spectrum than the ratio/peripheral side. For more, follow the link… (aug9)

2. Bottom-Five:

1) The Chicago Blackhawks

You don’t want to know. Just the entire perspective here stinks. Corey Perry, Nick Foligno, Ryan Donato, and Andreas Athanasiou for a combined $14.25M, and there’s basically no re-sell value there either. There were better ways to build up the dressing room, to hit the cap floor, and to accumulate assets. Just terrible management around all in all, and it hurts the fantasy value of the rest of the roster in the short term. (aug9)

3. The second bottom-five signing: Dmitry Orlov. Two years at $7.75M.

This isn’t a terrible signing initially because Orlov is a solid player and gives the Canes one of the best and most mobile D cores in the league. However, it is a prime example of the issue with GMs managing the FA market. The Canes had no need for Orlov, and just threw away a large part of their cap flexibility in order to overpay one of the top defensemen on the market. Between Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jalen Chatfield, Dylan Coghlan, and having subsequently brought back Tony DeAngelo, Dmitry Orlov isn’t needed in a top-four role (though he will play in one) and won’t get much power play exposure at all. Instead, the Canes could have put the money towards filling their second-line center hole.

I would have loved to see that extra money put towards a Trevor Zegras offersheet of $10.5M for three to five years. I know that offer sheets are a pipe-dream, but for two firsts, a second, and a third, there’s no harm done to Carolina either way, and it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve thrown one out either. For more, follow the link… (aug9)

4. Last week I discussed the Multi-Category option on Frozen Tools, which lists many stat categories. Most notably, the Multi-Category grid has a combined hits and blocked shots category as well as a combined shots and hits and blocked shots category. These combined categories can help you find the best available options for peripheral (non-scoring) categories in your multicategory league.

A reader suggested that I include penalty minutes in my analysis, since many leagues still count that category, so I’ve decided to break it down today. 

The penalty minute totals elevate the multicategory values of players like Brady Tkachuk and Matthew Tkachuk. They are no surprise here, given the last name and reputation. Brandon Montour, however, had recorded at least 50 penalty minutes just once in his six seasons in the NHL prior to 2022-23. The fact that he played a career-high 24 minutes per game was a factor, but it wouldn’t have been the only reason. Although some players will naturally receive more penalty minutes than others due to style of play, there might be a certain randomness to penalty minutes. (aug12)

5. A breakdown of penalty minute types might help. The league leader in minor penalties in 2022-23 was Rasmus Dahlin (41), who is hardly a one-category wonder in fantasy. Although Dahlin is not known for his penalty minute totals, he was also in the top 10 in this category in 2021-22 with 32 minor penalties. Another notable minor penalty leader is Pierre-Luc Dubois, who has finished in the top 5 in minor penalties for two consecutive seasons. Dubois had a league-leading 43 minor penalties in 2021-22 and 36 in 2022-23. Although they don’t stand out like the Tkachuks, Dahlin and Dubois are players you could target for penalty minutes without sacrificing too much scoring. (aug12)

6. The players who fight the most often offer the bigger penalty minute payoff. Nicolas Deslauriers led the league with 14 fights, while Pat Maroon and Austin Watson were tied for second with 12 fights. As per above, all three of these players were in the top 5 in overall penalty minutes, along with the Tkachuks. Obviously, none of these three offers near the amount of scoring that Matthew and Brady do, but they are appropriate if you have room for a penalty minute category killer (Watson needs to find a team first).

Among the 12 players with at least 100 penalty minutes, nine had at least 100 hits. The three players that didn’t were among the better scorers of the group (Matthew Tkachuk, Montour, Michael Bunting). Matthew is a better scorer than younger brother Brady, but the gap between them in multicategory leagues is fairly close because Brady hits a lot more. There may not be a player that can offer solid coverage in as many categories as Brady can. 

Tanner Jeannot likely won’t ever reach Tkachuk levels in terms of scoring, but he might be a Tkachuk-lite in terms of what he can offer in multicategory leagues. Jeannot was in the top 10 in both penalty minutes and in hits (and the combined hits/blocked shots category, even though forwards don’t block many shots). Even if he is limited to 40 points, Jeannot is incredibly valuable in bangers leagues. (aug12)

7. I have started to do something I have never done, and that’s start working on my projections early. Taking July and August to largely think about anything except hockey is usually the order of operations but getting rain for most of the last 10 weeks has given me more spare time than anticipated. Thanks, Mother Nature, I guess? My projections won’t be finished until sometime in September – I procrastinate with the best of them – but I did want to go through some best ball thoughts.

For anyone unfamiliar, best ball leagues are fantasy formats that remove the in-season managing. Fantasy owners draft their rosters before the season, and then they don’t touch them. There are no trades or waivers, and most best ball leagues involve no lineup setting. Scoring is almost always a points format – five points for a goal, two for an assist, half-point for a hit, and so on – and only a portion of the roster’s production counts towards the final standings. For that reason, even if a couple of your roster players suffer lengthy injuries, their zeroes don’t count. (aug11)

8. These best ball leagues aren’t as fun as traditional fantasy leagues with friends and family, but they are a good way to get a wider variety of players on different rosters. It is also a great way to practice drafting and get a feel for this year’s values before your more meaningful fantasy drafts. So, let's take some time to review the 2022-23 season in my best ball leagues on Underdog Fantasy, and some general thoughts on the 2023-24 season.

For example, it would be easy to assume that not having Connor McDavid would ruin chances for winning a league last year. He had 64 goals and 153 points, a total that cleared second-place Leon Draisaitl by 25 points, and third-place David Pastrnak by 40. In Underdog’s scoring format, McDavid scored 1212 points, which is 320 points more than Auston Matthews managed, and 245 more than Draisaitl. Even on a per-game basis, McDavid was more than a full point higher than Nathan MacKinnon. (aug11)

9. With all that said, I did three 12-team best ball leagues and one 10-team league last season, and the team with McDavid won just one of them. Conversely, the team that drafted Rasmus Dahlin won three of the four leagues. Small samples and all, but that was interesting to me. 

I was a bit stunned to see John Tavares go 99^th overall. On a per-game basis, he out-pointed Zibanejad in this format last year, and Zibanejad went 39^th overall. He also out-pointed Brayden Point (36^th), Aleksander Barkov (53^rd) and Roope Hintz (55^th). I get the concern about age-related decline, or the team around him, but I’d rather Tavares at 99^th than Point at 36^th by a wide, wide margin. For more, follow the link… 

Finally, fantasy owners should note Connor Bedard going 42^nd overall. His ADP is actually 33^rd overall, so this represents good (relative) value to other drafts. For anyone wanting to draft Bedard as a centre in one-year leagues, you’ll probably have to decide between him and names like Sidney Crosby, Mika Zibanejad, and Brayden Point. He needs to put up roughly 40 goals, 80 points, and 275 shots to pay off this kind of ADP, not including opportunity costs, so there are decisions to make. For more, follow the link… (aug11)

10. More summer hockey reading for you: We began the Offseason Fantasy Grades team articles this week. The first article appeared on Tuesday, August 8, and they will continue into September. You will be able to find the links to all of them here. Check them out!

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11. Free agent signings in August are few and far between, but one was announced on Friday. The Vancouver Canucks have signed center Pius Suter to a two-year contract with an average annual value of $1.6 million. Over his three NHL seasons, Suter has provided modest point totals while showing remarkable consistency in the goal department (14, 15, 14).

This signing shouldn’t have a major impact on fantasy leagues, since Suter is likely projected as a third-line center for the Canucks. The Canucks are fairly well-stocked at wing, so a 40-point season isn’t out of the question for Suter. Teddy Blueger was expected to fill a third-line role for the Canucks when he was signed on July 1, but he likely moves down to a fourth-line role where he is more ideally suited. Sheldon Dries and/or Jack Studnicka could be healthy scratches or AHL bound if everyone is healthy. For more, check out the Fantasy Take from Mike. (aug12)

12. Matt Dumba is off to Arizona, and I wonder how he fits. There aren’t a lot of teams that still use the blue-line slap shot, but the Coyotes did with Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun around. They’re gone, but Dumba’s there, and that kind of profile is something the team can accommodate. It is unlikely he will reach prior career highs, but it’s not hard to see him putting up far more than the 14 points he had last year. Dobber had his take here… (aug8)

13. Toronto signed veteran backup goalie Martin Jones to a one-year contract. Alex MacLean had his breakdown here.

It is an interesting move because Joseph Woll is not exempt from waivers, as Alex pointed out, which means either carrying three goalies or potentially losing one on waivers. Jones may not get claimed, but it creates an interesting backup dilemma, and the potential starts dilemma if Samsonov goes through any lengthy injury. If Jones really does steal starts from Woll all season, something has probably gone very wrong for the team. (aug10)

14. One of the stats that can be misleading is secondary assists (A2). There have been studies going back years showing that these helpers – from forwards at even strength – regress heavily when players finish at the top or the bottom of the leaderboard. For example, John Tavares led all forwards in A2/60 back in 2021-22 with 1.06, a mark nearly 80% higher than his previous career-best for a full 82-game season (2010-11, 0.59/60). That rate of 1.06/60 in 2021-22 predictably cratered down to 0.58/60 in 2022-23, cutting his A2 totals nearly in half. Adding 13 power-play points helped balance out that regression, which is why an A2 regression is not the end of the world.

However, saying that there will be regression from a player with an A2 outlier doesn’t tell us the whole story. While there are a couple of surprises for the top A2/60 performers over the last three seasons, like Frederick Gaudreau being in the top-10, the leaderboard looks mostly like a lot of the top players/playmakers in the league. (aug10)

15. For example, take Rickard Rakell (PIT – 0.77 A2/60). It was a good season for Rakell last year as his 60 points and 0.73 points/game were both five-year highs. Importantly, the Pittsburgh power play’s goal rate went up 25% when Rakell was skating with the big boys. If Rakell can stay on the top PP unit over Bryan Rust, it could help mitigate the incoming A2 regression the former is facing.

That he had a career season by A2/60 is a concern – he had 16 such helpers in 82 games, managing just 13 over his prior 122 regular season contests. Being in Pittsburgh, and not on a bad Anaheim team, has helped him to higher A2 rates the last two seasons than normal, but there is pullback coming of at least 3-4 points, if not more. However, as mentioned earlier, a full season on the top PP unit could help soften this drop quite a bit. He may still crest 60 points, even with that A2 regression (the Dobber Guide projected him for 58 in 77 games, so pretty bang-on his 2022-23 performance).

There are forwards at the other end of the A2 spectrum that need discussion as well. These players may – or may not – be in line for some extra point production in 2023-24 thanks to secondary helpers. (aug10)

16. Another one? Kirill Marchenko (CBJ – 0.0 A2/60). There were 288 forwards to crest the 750-minute mark at even strength and only two failed to register a single even-strength secondary assist. One was Vegas’ Keegan Kolesar, and the other was Marchenko. He managed just four total assists in 59 games.

Marchenko’s three full-ish seasons in the KHL produced 34 goals and 30 assists, so he has a track record of prioritizing scoring over playmaking. That disparity was stark in the NHL, though, with 21 goals and 4 assists. It wasn’t just luck, either, as AllThreeZone’s tracking data had Marchenko – in a small sample – with very poor playmaking numbers across the board.

We can expect Marchenko to register some second assists in 2023-24, but we also need to see improvement in his playmaking before he becomes a more rounded threat, and thus fantasy asset. For more on secondary assists, follow the link… (aug10)

17. The intention of today’s Ramblings was to start combing through regression candidates, but the biggest trade of the summer went down on Sunday. That has changed our plans and, instead, it’ll be reviewing the impact of Erik Karlsson heading from San Jose to Pittsburgh. Ian gave his take on the entire trade here.

There are a lot of moving pieces, and it all involves a third team. Let’s start with the main attraction.

Karlsson: I wrote a bit about Karlsson back in May and it mostly focused on his playmaking. Go read that to get a better idea of how he could help the Penguins in transition, which is something Karlsson does as well as any defenseman in hockey, Cale Makar and Roman Josi included.

The other point I want to make is about the team Karlsson had around him. Looking back through his days with Ottawa and then San Jose, there were good teams in the former, maybe one good team in the latter, but San Jose’s last four seasons have been a huge drop off. Starting with the 2019-20 campaign, San Jose has finished 29^th, 25^th, 22^nd, and 29^th in the league. Overall, the only teams with a worse points percentage over the last four seasons were Anaheim and Detroit.

[There's so much analytical info to digest in Mike's piece that, from this point on and in order to not miss anything, it's best to refer to his breakdown by following the link…] (aug8)

18. Peter Harling the DobberProspects Managing Editor here pinch hitting for today's Ramblings. So, let’s talk about some prospects!

It’s the dog days of summer for hockey, the NHL is pretty quiet in terms of news or free agency, but the prospect season seemingly never takes time off. As I write this the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament gold Medal game is playing out with Canada and Czechia. At the same time the WJC summer showcase tournament is also playing out. I am looking forward to discussing these tournaments on some upcoming DobberProspects Report podcasts with Chris Peters from FloHockey and Steve Ellis from Daily Faceoff who are both following these events closely.

So, who has been impressive? Let's check in on the World Junior Summer showcase:

Lane Hutson, D – Montreal Canadiens
The legend of Lane Hutson is only just beginning. After a dominant freshman season at Boston U. I think Hutson is going to take another big step forward at the WJC with USA and become an elite prospect if he is not already one. His poise with the puck is exceptional, he has superstar vision and skill and despite being a little undersized look for him to develop into an elite offensive and fantasy defenseman in the NHL in a year or two.

Frank Nazar, C – Chicago Blackhawks
Don’t forget about the Hawks 2022 first round pick. Nazar missed all but 13 games in his D+1 season as a freshman at the University of Michigan due to injury. He had a statement tournament leading the tournament in scoring with eight points in four games. He will play a full season in the NCAA but could be ready to join Connor Bedard in Chicago as soon as this March. (aug7)

19. Some dynasty leagues are gearing up for draft and prospect drafts, and with that in mind I thought I would take a look at some deep dive dynasty prospects for all you hard core players.

Nikolai Kovalenko, LW/RW – Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have signed their 2018 sixth round pick to a two-year ELC. The team has loaned him back to his KHL club team where he remains under contract as well. Kovalenko is the son of former NHL forward Andrei (AK-47) and was a top scorer in the KHL last year posting 54 points in 56 games. When the KHL season ends expect Nikolai to make his NHL debut with the Avalanche.

Kovalenko may be the most interesting player coming over from Europe this year. We have seen a lot of hype on European imports over the years with more misses than hits, Nikita Gusev, Vadim Shipashev. But there have been some big hits such as Artemi Panerin and Andrei Kuzmenko as recently as last year. So, what is Kovalenko? That is the subject of debate. Former DobberProspects Managing Editor, Cam Robinson, is optimistic that he can be as good or better than Kuzmenko. Meanwhile, Byron Bader is not as convinced, suggesting that at 23-years-old his KHL breakout is too little, too late. For their takes, follow the link… 

Ultimately time will tell, but I think that he could step into the Avalanche roster in a top nine role heading into the playoffs at the end of the year. For a player you can add in a late round pick or as a free agent and stash on your prospect bench, the upside value for the cost is well worth it. The Avalanche are a strong offensive team, but there is opportunity for Kovalenko, especially on the left wing. (aug7)

20. Remember Alex Texier? After taking a year leave to play is Switzerland for personal reasons he is coming back to the NHL. Texier is versatile and can play center or the wing. He has some untapped offensive upside and showed flashes of it in his last tour with the Blue Jackets when he scored 14 points in 19 games when an injury to Patrik Laine provided an opportunity. He could be a sneaky good add to your fantasy roster if he is available. (aug7)

21. I am really enthusiastic for the Kraken's Ty Kartye. The undrafted free agent signing by the savvy Kraken payed early dividends. The AHL Rookie of the Year posted 57 points in 72 games with Coachella. But what really impressed me was the five points in ten NHL playoff games he scored with the Kraken. Making the Seattle roster will be difficult as the Kraken have very good depth. It may take an injury, and he may need to best Shane Wright for the job, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities and the upside could be sweet. (aug7)

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