Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

This week, we will dig into a few interesting outliers from Mitch Brown's tracking data—prospects who performed among the best in various categories but do not have nearly the same hype as some of their peers. Subscribing to the Patreon he runs with fellow EP Rinkside writer Lassi Alanen gives you access to a ton of rich, detailed, and informative player cards and graphs that allow comparison of prospects from the WHL, OHL, QMJHL, and USHL. For those of you like me who are always—always—looking to pluck high-upside under-the-radar prospects off the waiver wire, this resource is an absolute gold mine.

Amadeus Lombardi (DET)

11th in Overall Rating

4th in Expected Primary Points

8th in Game Score

2nd in Offense Rating (behind only Connor Bedard)

7th in Offensive Involvement

2nd in Offensive Zone Passer Rating

Lombardi is one of the best playmakers in Brown's data set.

A fourth-round pick by Detroit in 2022 as an overager re-entry, he saw his production skyrocket in his Draft+1 campaign, from 59 points in 67 games to 102 in 67. He played second fiddle to Brennan Othmann (NYR) on the Flint Firebirds (OHL) as a draft-eligible, but then scored five more points than his former captain the following year in only one additional game (102 to 97). The significant increase in goals (18 to 45) bodes well for his NHL trajectory because his shot was considered below NHL average in his draft year.

Although he now has more of a dual-threat element to his game, his main weapons continue to be his sublime passing, handling, and hockey sense. He finished second to only Zach Benson (BUF) this year in Offensive Zone Passer Rating, a metric that measures "a player’s offensive zone playmaking, weighted by value of their passes, difficulty, and result."

As you can see from his player card below, his primary assist and slot pass rates were off the charts. He is an advantage-creating machine for his team and is right in the middle of the action at all times.

Another area he has shined in recently is in transition with controlled entries, where he uses his speed and handling to push the play forward before setting up his teammates. In limited action with Detroit's AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids last year, he showed the ability to translate these skills to the professional level: https://twitter.com/IcehockeyG/status/1647523531477995522?s=20

Pretty special stuff. He is noticeable that entire sequence: Lombardi receives the puck at the red line, ducks around a couple of tough checks to gain the zone with possession, battles to steal the puck back, sets up a quick give-and-go with two teammates, then makes an elegant power move to the net that gets shut down just in time. Imagine what he will be able to do as he adds pro-level strength—he is currently listed at a fairly slight 5-10, 165 lbs.

Interested in a deeper dive on Lombardi? Check out this excellent in-depth Twitter thread from Dobber Prospects' OHL Regional Scout, Jordan Harris:

Amadeus Lombardi thread:

Here's a thread, with clips, of my thoughts on Lombardi after watching four of his games this season. Please note that all clips and reference material will be at the end of the thread. Hope you enjoy!

— Jordan Harris (@Jordan_NHLDraft) January 2, 2023

Ben Hemmerling (VGK)

9th in Overall Rating

4th in Offensive Involvement

2nd in Inside Play

5th in OZ Pucks Inside

10th in Advantages Created

11th in Passer Rating

Although Hemmerling received an "F" grade from Elite Prospects only a year ago, with many of his tools grading out to below NHL average, he played a significant role this past season for the Everett Silvertips. What makes his performance even more impressive is that Everett, one of the WHL's weaker teams, traded away star defender Olen Zellweger part way through the year. As can be seen from the fact that Hemmerling ranked 4th in Offensive Involvement, which calculates "the percentage of a team's Expected Goals (xG) a player either shot or set up," but far lower on Game Score and Expected Primary Points, he did a ton of heavy lifting for the Silvertips despite finishing with a merely respectable 62 points in 55 games. The offense generally flowed through him even if there wasn't much of it.

Another area of strength for Hemmerling is driving play to and through the middle of the ice—he finished second behind only Benson. Somewhat curiously, he did so in the Defensive Zone specifically more than any other player in the dataset. I have not watched enough game tape of the Silvertips to comment more on this tendency; he does quite well in transition relative to his teammates, however, so whatever he is doing there is clearly working at a high enough rate. He also attacks the middle whenever he can on the offensive end of things and creates advantages for his teammates at an absurd rate—almost literally off the charts.

Ben Hemmerling (#VegasBorn 2022 6th round) goes hard to the net to score an OT winner to cap off a 3-point night. https://t.co/nn2nZ1heMV

— Jack Manning (@NHLJackManning) January 29, 2023

He was kept off the ice earlier this summer at the Vegas Golden Knights Development Camp due to a late-season injury, and he is likely still at least a couple years away from seeing any NHL action, but Hemmerling is definitely someone to monitor—especially if he gets more scoring support in Everett moving forward.

Mathew Maggio (NYI)

3rd in Game Score (behind only Connor Bedard and Oliver Moore)

7th in Expected Primary Points

8th in Offense Rating

2nd in Shot Contributions

9th in Offensive Involvement

Maggio rates highly overall (2nd in Game Score) but falls down a bit when his play in all three zones is considered (19th in Overall Rating). In other words, he can often be a defensive liability for his team around his own net despite his impressive contributions on offense. Just check out that ugly red bar in the Defensive Plays/Corsi Against category. Until the puck is headed back up the ice—preferably carried out by a teammate who hits him in neutral ice to set up a for a zone entry—he is a bit lost out there. He excels in transition, however, and is heavily involved in his team's offense.

Unlike Hemmerling, Maggio's impact can definitely be seen on the score sheet: he led the entire OHL in both goals and overall scoring in 2022-23 with 111 points (54 goals) in only 66 games. In case you missed it, I dug more into his very successful campaign back in June.

Rodwin Dionicio (ANA)

8th in Overall Rating

2nd in Offense Rating (behind only Bedard)

6th in Passer Rating

9th in Inside Play

Still one of the best-kept secrets in fantasy, Dionicio was featured in my series last month on High-Upside Depth Options from the 2023 Draft. It will be interesting to watch moving forward whether the Ducks keep him on the back end or try him at Forward—which the Spitfires (OHL) experimented with at times this year. The fact that he finished tied with Lombardi for second in Offense Rating, which measures "offensive impact by volume and efficiency, adjusted for quality of team," behind only Bedard is very telling as to Dionicio's impressive offensive upside—regardless of which position he plays. He is an endlessly deceptive puck handler who connects the dots with smooth, seeing-eye passes and point shots through traffic.

Daimon Gardner (VAN)

19th in Game Score

17th in Overall Rating

4th in Passer Rating

Gardner's passing is what stands out the most: he finished behind only Benson, Lombardi, and Bedard for the impact of his offensive zone playmaking, ahead of high-end playmakers like Logan Stankoven, Andrew Cristall, Riley Heidt, Gabe Perreault, Jayden Perron, Matthew Savoie, etc. There is a ton of talent in this data set, and Gardner is a prospect I was not familiar with in the slightest, so it was odd to see him up there.

As a player drafted out of high school in 2022 (4th round, 112th overall), Gardner has more question marks with his profile than most. The fact that he went nearly a point-per-game in his rookie USHL campaign, however, suggests that the talent and trajectory are legitimate. He is a big (6-4, 201 lbs) guy who plays a skilled, physical game that has historically been hampered by poor skating. He is set to continue his development with Clarkson (NCAA) next year, which will bring him one step closer to becoming a valuable asset in fantasy. In the "too early to draft" category for now, he should begin attracting more attention if he gets off to a hot start in the Fall.

While he can be found a bit further down the list in terms of Game Score and Overall Rating, even being in the top 20 is quite the accomplishment given the competition. Plus, unlike the other skaters profiled above, Gardner has a significant impact in all three zones.

Not really a goal scorer and not the most successful at orchestrating controlled zone exits, Gardner has a chance to secure a middle-six role with an NHL team some day. He will likely need several years to begin realizing that potential but definitely offers intrigue and is almost certainly sitting on your leagues' waiver wire right now.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.