Ramblings: A Chicago Prospect, Washington’s Final D, Suter and More (Aug 14)

Dobber

2023-08-14

The 18th annual Fantasy Guide was updated on Friday morning. I still need to put in the Pius Suter signing, and this week I will begin putting in the articles at the end of the Guide, such as projected standings. Each year I put in one of these articles per week (projected standings, projected Calder picks and projected team goals-for), usually starting around mid-August. The reason they aren't in when I release the Guide is because the projections, analysis and writeups for each team take priority – and I assume that when those are done you want to get your hands on them immediately! After that, I take a breather for a couple of weeks, just updating the signings, injuries and trades.

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As for Suter, this one is confusing (see Cliffy's breakdown here). Vancouver is one team that I already had a full roster of forwards projected. It all fit very neatly and each forward position had a ton of depth. But he probably upgrades the situation on the third and fourth lines. I think Sheldon Dries gets knocked off the roster, and possibly Vasily Podkolzin. Possibly Nils Aman. And that's if either of them can get on the roster to begin with, as Tanner Pearson is said to be healthy and Nils Hoglander is no longer waivers exempt. Prospects such as Linus Karlsson and Podkolzin can both be sent to the minors, and even though Podkolzin looked good in his late-season stint, the numbers game in Vancouver makes it more of an uphill battle for him to stick. And Karlsson looks close to making the jump, but now it's almost certain he'll have to bide his time. I know that some of the players I note here are wingers, and Suter is a center. However, this sort of thing always has a domino effect. I had Aman as the fourth-line center. But his faceoff numbers are terrible and it seems logical he will be moved to the wing – thus the 'this will hurt Podkolzin' thought.

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A Russian prospect who is starting to get a bit of buzz thanks to a couple of articles in The Athletic (the biggest one being this one by Scott Powers) is Chicago's Ilya Safonov. For the most part, young players in the KHL do not see much in the way of ice time and opportunity. The KHL is even worse than the NHL for that. So this often makes them fly under the radar for fantasy owners because the numbers that you see for them on stats sites such as Frozen Tools are unimpressive. Furthermore, Safonov is 6-4, when just a few years ago he wasn't even six feet. Adjusting to those new mechanics within his body is bound to take time. He broke out last season for Ak Bars Kazan, leading all U22 players in that league in scoring with 19 goals and 37 points. He's still signed there for this season and next, so he's more of a long-term prospect for dynasty leaguers. But given that the organization is Chicago, it's worth noting. He was also named team captain for Ak Bars, a team that also boasted Alexander Radulov, Vadim Shipachyov, and Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ prospect). I wouldn't be shocked if he boosts his numbers in the KHL season ahead to flirt with a point-per-game average. If that happens, your fellow keeper league owners will catch wind of him.

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Prospect defenseman Alexander Alexeyev is not waivers-exempt, so it's likely that he again makes the Capitals this season. To send him down would mean possibly losing a former first-round draft pick (31st overall in 2018) for nothing, and not many teams are willing to do that. In fact, the Caps weren't willing to do it last year and kept him in the NHL all season – but they scratched him for more than half the games. The 6-4, left-shot defenseman has yet to find any offensive magic in North America, not even with Hershey. And his defense has only been average at best. While teams will often keep a high draft pick in the lineup rather than lose him to waivers, even if it means scratching him all the time, I don't recall a team doing that for two years in a row. That second year, if he doesn't prove himself, then he gets cut and often another team will snatch him and take a chance that a new environment will change things. Hey, a change in environment/team system worked for former fifth-round pick Gustav Forsling, who was waived by the Hurricanes and snapped up by Florida. So it does happen.

But if Alexeyev has a poor training camp, Washington has a backup plan in Hardy Haman Aktell, an undrafted Swedish defenseman whom they signed in late April. Aktell is also a left-shooting blueliner who stands at 6-4. He just finished third in the SHL in scoring among defenseman with 36 points in 51 games. At 25, he's very experienced playing pro hockey against men, and he'll be hungry to make his NHL dream come true.

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I fully expect Martin Jones to spend most of this coming season in the AHL. As Alex MacLean noted in his Fantasy Take, Joseph Woll would get claimed off of waivers, so there's no way the Leafs cut Woll. That being said, both Woll and Ilya Samsonov have had their share of injuries over the years, so Jones will get plenty of time with Toronto. And as he did with Seattle, he'll get a few W's despite being a weak goaltender.

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I just spoke about how teams are reluctant to place their first round picks on waivers, but Detroit had done just that with Evgeni Svechnikov, who was drafted 19th overall in 2015. They placed him on waivers and he cleared. But defensemen, such as Alexeyev, are tougher commodities to give up. Anyway, Svechnikov has given up his NHL dream, signing for two years with Ak Bars Kazan (to play with the aforementioned Safonov – see how I tie everything together?). Svechnikov, who turns 27 in the fall, was a high-scoring junior player and at one time a Top 20 prospect in my Fantasy Prospects List. He never had a 20-point NHL season. It just goes to show you that not all prospects pan out, and if you get offered a proven player for one, then it's always worth considering.

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