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During the press conference for the Jeff Petry trade, Montreal announced that forward Paul Byron will retire from the NHL. He missed over half of Montreal's games from 2019-22, and the entire 2022-23 season with a hip injury. Byron has 208 career points in 521 games for three teams, most of them with the Canadiens.

Those numbers belie a career that never may have happened in the first place. He was claimed off waivers by Montreal after 130 games with Calgary, and just eight games with Buffalo, the team that drafted him. As a sixth-round selection in 2007, he wasn't expected to last long, anyway.

But then from 2015-19, a four-year stretch that saw him reach 81 and 82 games played in two of them, he had a high-end second-line production rate at 5-on-5 (74^th percentile) with good penalty killing metrics (per Evolving Hockey). He went from waiver claim to a solid second liner, if not a great third liner, in a hurry. It is quite the story, and one that bears repeating for his resilience. From this Habs fan, thanks for the tremendous effort and best wishes in retirement.

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Tom Collins had an article on Monday reviewing the 10 options on Yahoo! that he felt are ranked too low. Go read what Tom has to say about Jamie Drysdale, Zach Werenski, Stuart Skinner, Josh Norris, and others.

That gave me some inspiration to look at early ADPs across two sites: ESPN and Underdog Fantasy. ESPN includes both hits and blocks, as does Underdog, though the latter is a points format. Regardless, they both use very similar categories – ESPN has short-handed points while Underdog does not – so we can compare some ADPs between the two to see if there is early value to be had. Here are some guys that stood out, one way or another. Keep in mind that fantasy hockey draft season isn't for another month, there are few drafts to give us the data we need right now, and a lot will change over the next six weeks.

One note to make is that defence/goalies tend to go later on Underdog than ESPN so I'll ignore differences of a couple rounds for those positions unless it's a player from the early picks. ADPs for each player will be in parentheses next to their names. Data from Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Elias Pettersson (ESPN: 5.2, Underdog: 21.2)

This one jumped out immediately. One site has him in the David Pastrnak/Nathan MacKinnon group of players, the other has him in the Kyle Connor/Timo Meier tier. When discussing players drafted inside the top-25, that is a chasm of difference in draft value.

Pettersson's 102-point season will stand out, but he had 89 blocks and 74 hits in his 80 games. Those blew his prior career-highs (51 blocks, 49 hits) out of the water. If he can boost his peripherals even more, and get to 40 goals and 100 points, maybe he's a first-round value. A lot has to go right, though, and it feels like a misstep to have him included with the likes of Nathan MacKinnon. I assume his ESPN ADP goes up a lot by October as this is a result of early mock drafts.

Connor Bedard (ESPN: 20.5, Underdog: 27.6)

I wrote about Bedard's value in best ball formats last week. Go read that for more information on this.

To pay off an ADP in the early 20s on ESPN, Bedard needs 35 goals and 100 points, or maybe 45 goals and 90 points, over three shots per game and 25-plus power-play points. It's not much less than that to pay off an ADP in the late 20s. To profit on that pick, he probably needs a season like Jack Hughes just had with 43 goals, 99 points, 31 PPPs, and over 300 shots. That makes this feel like he's being over-drafted basically everywhere. He did go 42^nd in the one draft I did, so it seems some draft rooms will be more bullish on him than others.  

Jack Eichel (ESPN: 32, Underdog: 52.7)

Over his last 122 games, spanning three seasons, Eichel has averaged 29 goals, 44 assists, 280 shots, and 21 PPPs every 82 games. That is nowhere near enough to pay off a 32^nd overall ADP and is fringe-y at his Underdog ADP. Just his 2022-23 season alone paced for 33 goals, 48 assists, 273 shots, and 17 PPPs. That might pay off a 5^th-round ADP, but certainly not a third-round ADP.

There have been changes, of course. Vegas went to a heavily used top PP unit in the playoffs, where Eichel received a full extra minute of PPTOI per game. The team added Ivan Barbashev to the fold and he's a good playmaker. Eichel's on-ice goal rate went up nearly 10% with Barbashev, so that'll help.

Eichel fell just shy of 19 minutes a game in the postseason and skating 18-19 minutes caps his upside a bit. I am bullish on Eichel, but a third-round ADP feels way too high. There isn't really much difference between he and Dylan Larkin, and the latter is going nearly four rounds later.

Travis Konecny (ESPN: 70,2, Underdog: 93.2)

While the ADP here isn't separated by a whole lot – two rounds and outside the first five rounds – but it's his draft company that matters. Konecny is going as the 20^th winger off the board on ESPN, but 40^th on Underdog. Last season, Konecny was tied for 22^nd on ESPN in fantasy points per game among forwards with names like Brady Tkachuk, Timo Meier, and Alex Tuch. Over on Underdog, those three wingers have ADPs of 10.5, 18.2, and 51.6, respectively. Konecny is going between 90-100.

Tracking data from AllThreeZones have Konecny increasing his scoring chance contributions each of the last three seasons, profiling similarly to names like Jason Robertson and Kirill Kaprizov in 2022-23:

Konecny was over 20 minutes a game in his final 15 regular season games and a returning (and hopefully healthy) Sean Couturier could help a lot here. There aren't a lot of players going outside the top-75 picks on Underdog with genuine 40-goal, 80-point, 300-shot, and 80-hit upside, but Konecny is one of them. He still seems fine at his ESPN ADP, honestly.

Bo Horvat (ESPN: 70, Underdog: 153)

This is one of the better buying opportunities on Underdog. Horvat's production cratered after getting to New York but a 30-game sample on a new team (largely without Mathew Barzal) after a mid-season trade isn't much to go off. What is important is he stayed over 20 minutes a game in the regular season and led all NYI forwards by over two minutes per game in the postseason. The coaches will lean heavily on Horvat in all situations.

Had Horvat shot his three-year percentage from 2019-22, he would have scored 13 goals with the Islanders, pacing for 34 in a full season, and that, again, was mostly without Barzal. Drafting him inside the top-75 might be high when we have names like Aho and Larkin around the same ADPs, but he could be a tremendous value on other sites. 

Andrei Svechnikov (ESPN: 83.9, Underdog: 31.2)

On Underdog, Svech is going in the tier with Zach Hyman and Alex DeBrincat. On ESPN, he's going in a tier with Sam Reinhart and Adrian Kempe. It is quite the gap, which could be explained either by UD drafters overvaluing Svech, ESPN drafters being concerned about his return from knee surgery or, most likely, a combination of the two.

The thing with his ESPN ADP is it doesn't feel too far off when looking at his 2022-23 season: paced for 30 goals, 71 points, 262 shots, 179 hits, and 21 PPPs. That would be good for roughly a top-60 skater season, maybe top-70 when including goalies. With the injury factored in, and 83.9 ADP isn't egregious.

Svech is coming into his age-23 season with nearly 400 total NHL games under his belt. After years of teasing his ceiling, he's getting into his prime. I am willing to risk a top-50 pick on him, and that means his ESPN ADP is good value.

John Carlson (ESPN: 28.1, Underdog: 75.2)

Last season, on ESPN, Carlson was tied with Rasmus Dahlin for third in FPTS/game among all defencemen (minimum of 40 games played). He was pacing for 19 goals, 60 points, over 250 shots, 85 hits, and 178 blocks but had his season cut short due to injury. His ESPN ADP reflects that reality while his Underdog ADP does not. On ESPN, he's being drafted (D5) just after Erik Karlsson, on Underdog he's being taken (D12) just ahead of Quinn Hughes.

I understand the trepidation around Washington's aging roster, but everyone outside of Max Pacioretty is healthy (as healthy as they'll get) and Carlson will log heavy minutes. Taking him as the fifth defenceman might be a bit high, but anytime after the top-8 defencemen feels like good value.

Mikhail Sergachev (ESPN: 35.4, Underdog: 95.2)

Drafters on one site believe Sergachev has permanently taken over the top PP role from Victor Hedman, while drafters on the other do not. On ESPN, Hedman is going over two rounds later than Sergachev, but Hedman is going two rounds earlier than Sergachev on Underdog.

Whatever injuries Hedman went through in 2022-23, Sergachev maintained his top PP role even with Hedman in the lineup, and for long stretches. I believe Sergachev will hold onto that role, and he should be drafted as a top-10 defenceman. Even if he drops to, say, 55 points, his peripherals will keep him afloat.  

Jakob Chychrun (ESPN: 54, Underdog: 131.1)

Another huge gap on the blue line where ESPN has him as D13 off the board while Underdog is D24 and outside the first 10 rounds. Persistent injury issues and going to a team with Thomas Chabot are big reasons why we see him so low on UD.

In just 12 games with Ottawa, Chychrun managed 2.5 shots, 2.25 blocks, and one hit per game. He did fall to two minutes/game on the power play and skated the second unit, and that is a concern. It is worth mentioning that Jake Sanderson managed 17 PPPs while skating mostly on the second unit last season.

Chychrun can absolutely reach double-digit goals, push 40 points, and have tremendous peripherals, all without top PPTOI. If anything changes where he gets to the premier PP quintet, his upside only goes up. There are a lot of question marks here, but if we're looking for this year's Mikhail Sergachev, this is one of the top options on Underdog (and possibly elsewhere).

Rasmus Andersson (ESPN: 77.9, Underdog: 175.5)

I am not joking when I say I did one Underdog best ball that saw 36 defencemen get drafted and none of them were Andersson. Luke Hughes did get drafted, though.

A new coaching staff may change his role, but we won't know until we see it. Oliver Kylington is also returning, so maybe he eats into Andersson's career-best 24:05 of TOI per game. All the same, it's back-to-back seasons of Andersson pacing for at least 50 points, 150 shots, 125 blocks, and 20 special team points. If people are buying a turnaround for Jonathan Huberdeau, I'm not sure Andersson should be much further than the 20^th defenceman off the board.

Ilya Sorokin (ESPN: 13.4, Underdog: 27.2)

I think there are a few interchangeable goalies at the top of the list this season, but I did find it interesting to see Sorokin as the top goalie on ESPN. He was fifth on that site last season in goalie fantasy points/game (min. 40 starts). That was in a tremendous season where he led the league in Goals Saved Above Expected and was runner-up for the Vezina Trophy.

If Sorokin can repeat his 2022-23 season, and the Islanders are a better offensive team thanks to Horvat, Pierre Engvall, and a healthy Oliver Wahlstrom, he could easily land as the top fantasy net-minder. No real issue from me on him being the top goalie off the board, even if it's not my preference.

Jeremy Swayman (ESPN: 108.8, Underdog: 142.1)

ESPN has Swayman going as a top-12 goalie off the board while he's outside the top-24 goalies on Underdog, flanked by names like Philipp Grubauer and Elvis Merzlikins. That is quite the difference.

This feels like the Alexandar Georgiev/Pavel Francouz problem from a year ago. There is one guy that should be the starter, and the other should be the backup. The people that bought on Georgiev were rewarded while those that went with Francouz were punished. Boston has lost Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, and that hurts a lot, but this is still a very good team.

(Note: there is a chasm between the top-8 goalies on ESPN, who all have top-40 ADPs, and the next group, which has Swayman and three other tenders included, between picks 80 and 135. There is a top group of eight, and then A Bunch Of Guys.)

Among goalies with at least 30 starts last season, Swayman was third in FPTS/game but 13^th in total FPTS. That is the nature of being a backup and he got 33 starts, way more than most backups, on the greatest regular season team we've seen in a generation. Unless he completely supplants Ullmark and gets to 50-plus starts, it's hard to see Swayman being much higher than the 12^th goalie, which means a tough profit to realize on ESPN. He is a much better value on Underdog.