Frozen Tools Forensics: Top Power-Play Defensemen, Part 2

Chris Kane

2023-08-18

This week we will be continuing our review of top power-play defensemen. In Part 1 we spent time examining teams with safe top units and the teams we have at least a season's worth of data supporting how they are going to divide up the time amongst the players they are currently rostering. That leaves us with a group (nine for those keeping track at home) of teams that have made some interesting moves over the course of the last year, and in particular this offseason that leave us with some question marks as to exactly how things are going to shake out.

A couple of quick points before we dive into the team specific reviews. Most of the teams on our list gained a player, or improved in all likelihood. Two teams, San Jose and Philly lost players so fit into a bit of their own category. Of the remaining seven teams that gained players, three had power plays that already ranked in the top half. This includes Toronto (ranked second overall at 26 percent conversion rate), Ottawa (eighth at 23.5 percent), and Pittsburgh (14th at 21.7 percent). Three teams had power plays that ranked in the bottom half of teams. This includes Detroit (17th at 21.1 percent), Carolina (20th at 19.8 percent), and Arizona (25th at 18.9 percent)

For the final team, I had initially planned to include Montreal (29th, 16.1 percent). In this review, but with the Jeff Petry trade, this should be Mike Matheson's job in 2023-24 so doesn't really need too much additional review.

With that out of the way let's dive into the group with top half power plays already. Pittsburgh, the team that began it all (well finished it really) is in an interesting place with the addition of Erik Karlsson.The following table shows the top three power-play d-men on the team with moves taken into account.

Pittsburgh

NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
ERIK KARLSSON32RPIT82101209273:2474.125:37
KRIS LETANG36RPIT6441161213:3968.524:51
PIERRE-OLIVIER JOSEPH23LPIT752110830:5215.215:15

Clearly the only way Karlsson and Kris Letang can both hang onto a 70 percent share of the power-play time is if Pittsburgh goes with two D. They haven't really ever done that, but they also haven't ever really had two defensemen of this caliber before. Letang has successfully manned the top unit for years, so it is a bit of a question mark as to why Karlsson was brought in. On the one hand it is pretty clearly a play to keep the window on the aging core open a little bit longer, but it isn't like the power-play was a huge sore thumb – it was in the middle of the pack.

Both Letang and Karlsson are a bit injury prone though, so there could be some level of insurance happening here. I am envisioning something of a Florida situation. Karlsson wasn't brought in to man the second unit. He is a big name and a big price tag. He is probably the Brandon Montour to Letang's Aaron Ekblad. Pittsburgh might run two D, (especially with Jake Guentzel out a few games to start the season), but if they split them my guess is Karlsson gets the preference on the top unit. Karlsson has been less effective when sharing the spotlight though (like with Brent Burns in San Jose) so I think this actually lowers the value of both Karlsson and Letang.

Toronto

NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
MORGAN RIELLY29LTOR6541126173:0164.221:42
JOHN KLINGBERG30RTOR6733112102:2952.620:37
CONOR TIMMINS24RTOR27141931:0923.215:05

This one should be a bit clearer. Toronto had an excellent power play in 2022-23, ranked second in the NHL. Morgan Rielly has rarely been the straw that stirs the drink, but he also clearly isn't dragging it down. Unfortunately, sometimes Toronto decides to go with five forwards so there is that to contend with. John Klingberg has certainly been a competent power-play QB in the past, but the 2022-23 season certainly did not provide a case for him to supplant anyone. It is competition so it gives Rielly a bit more of a question mark as there is an option to go to if he falters, but the spot (assuming any D gets it) should still be his on Day 1.

Ottawa

NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
THOMAS CHABOT26LOTT6841165203:4662.524:58
JAKOB CHYCHRUN25LOTT483314482:4855.322:42
JAKE SANDERSON20LOTT7732132172:2840.221:55

This looks like a three-headed monster, but we actually have some data to help. Jakob Chychrun joined at the trade deadline so we have a few weeks of data for him in Ottawa already. Jake Sanderson manned the top unit only when both Chychrun and Thomas Chabot were out of the lineup so I think we can put him firmly in the third seat. Chychrun and Chabot were both not in the lineup for very long (about March 2 to March 23) but over that time period Chabot had 53 percent of the team's power play to Chychrun's 37 percent. That is enough to give Chabot the edge going into the season, though like with Rielly maybe caps his value as there is another option to go with if he struggles.

Next up we take a look at power plays that did in fact struggle so adding QB depth might be considered a more specific referendum on the incumbent.

Detroit

NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
MORITZ SEIDER22RDET8242140153:065823:09
SHAYNE GOSTISBEHERE30LDET7541155152:4655.720:49
JEFF PETRY35RDET613111392:204222:21
JAKE WALMAN27LDET631814020:5317.219:43

What do we make of Detroit? Moritz Seider is a young up-and-coming incumbent and Detroit had an okay power play so we might not have assumed they would change things. Seider personally had a bit of regression in his second season and clearly management were concerned as they went and brought in both Shayne Gostisbehere and now Jeff Petry. Looking at the above list I think it is safe to say that Jake Walman's power-play days are at an end. I was cautiously optimistic about Gostisbehere stealing the job right up until the Petry trade. We are essentially in the areas of pure guesswork at this point. I am still leaning Gostisbehere, but it really is a roll of the dice as to who ends up with the top job. We will have to wait and see what training camp and preseason gives up for more information.

Carolina

NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
BRENT BURNS38RCAR8261255233:0058.423:13
TONY DEANGELO27RCAR7042174193:0965.422:04
BRADY SKJEI29LCAR813818870:5618.421:49

This one is a bit confusing. On the one hand Tony DeAngelo had a nice season when he was last in Carolina, but on the other Brent Burns just had almost exactly the same season for Carolina in 2022-23. Given that Carolina had the 20th-ranked power play and they decided to bring in DeAngelo, who really doesn't do anything but the power play well, I have to imagine they will give him a shot at some point. I have a hard time seeing him beating out Burns though. It lowers both of their values for sure, but I am still giving the edge to the incumbent here.

Arizona

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NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
J.J. MOSER22LARI823193112:0843.921:03
SEAN DURZI24RARI7238110162:0639.819:47
JUUSO VALIMAKI24LARI783493121:4536.418:11

I am prepared to write off J.J. Moser here and think it was circumstances that led to his high power-play percentage and now with the addition of Sean Durzi the battle is likely between Juuso Valimaki and Durzi. Matt Dumba was also added so could be in the mix too, but it has been several years since he saw success on the power play. This one is a real coin flip to me. Valimaki might have the inside edge as he did fine once Gostisbehere and Chychrun left, but I would lean Durzi long term.

And finally the teams that lost power-play defense. 

San Jose

NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
MATT BENNING28RS.J77245810:4817.919:47
JACOB MACDONALD30LS.J5887510:4313.412:02
MARIO FERRARO24LS.J72116610:3512.921:36

Without Karlsson who mans the top power play? No one? Judging by their 2022-23 percentages, Matt Benning has the inside edge, but not really.  It is just as likely that a rookie wins it out of camp, or maybe they give it up entirely and just run five forwards. Either way this power play is not looking pretty.

Philadelphia

NameAgeShootsTeamGPPTSSOGPPPPPTOI%PPTOI
CAM YORK22LPHI54204231:4440.219:39
RASMUS RISTOLAINEN28RPHI74208650:4616.919:01
TRAVIS SANHEIM27LPHI812311110:3211.520:24

Cam York season? Rasmus Ristolainen got some time at the end of the 2022-23 season and for a moment in time Travis Sanheim was relevant in that spot. There are a lot of directions it could go. There was some reporting this summer that Ristolainen was in John Tortorella's good graces by the end of the season (which coincides with his top power-play role) so he might have the inside track to start the season. The return of Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier make the power play QB a bit more intriguing particularly if it is Ristolainen as he usually provides a bit more peripheral coverage.

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