For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 21^st annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

Be sure to pick up your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.

Gone – Josh Bailey, Richard Panik, Zach Parise*, Cole Bardreau, Bode Wilde, Parker Wotherspoon, Andy Andreoff, Cory Schneider

Incoming – Bo Horvat, Pierre Engvall, Karson Kuhlman, Julien Gauthier

Impact of Changes – As has been the case for the Islanders since Lou Lamoriello took over, the changes weren't sweeping. The players leaving the organization were mostly AHL depth and it just clears the road for some younger guys to get minutes in the minors. The NHL roster is filled with NHL contracts so these players likely wouldn't have had much of a chance in the big leagues anyway. Bailey is a long-time Islander but had fallen out of favour. At time of writing, Parise has not re-signed but he's expected to once the team clears its cap issues. If not, his and Bailey's departures open a third-line role for Hudson Fasching.

Horvat was around for a while last season but now that he'll be around for eight years, he should be included. It will assuredly put a dent in Barzal's faceoff wins, though Barzal won fewer than 36% of them last season so just a rebound there might cushion that blow. It also gives them a centre to play ahead of Brock Nelson, though Nelson's PP role should stay as it was, and Barzal was already ahead of Nelson so it's just swapping players.  

Engvall was included despite being a deadline acquisition because of his contract extension. He managed nine points in 18 regular season games, a point/game mark he never reached in Toronto. His line with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri was tremendous in every respect in the regular season, though defensive issues cropped up in the postseason (to be fair, that was the case for most of the team). He added about two minutes per game of TOI, so he'll have value in deeper formats.

Kuhlman and Gauthier will push for a depth role, but the team loves its Identity Line, so they'll be in tough for an 80-game season. Fasching has the inside track for third-line minutes, so there is no fantasy value here for Kuhlman or Gauthier.

Ready For Full Time – Robin Salo, Samuel Bolduc

Both Salo and Bolduc have had appearances in the NHL but are now set to be regulars. Their problem is that the team has five rearguards they will rely on night in and night out, so the final lineup spot will be between these two and The Other Sebastian Aho, with one not being on the roster entirely. It is worth noting that with Alexander Romanov injured at the end of the season, Aho and Bolduc got the roster spots but with little ice time – 17:10 and 14:38 per night, respectively. When Romanov returned in the postseason, Bolduc was sent to the press box and Aho's ice time fell to 15:47.

When looking at what the coaching staff did last season, the order for the sixth defence spot is Aho, then Bolduc, then Salo. The latter is likely to bounce between the press box and the lineup until injuries hit unless he blows the doors off in training camp. Bolduc can easily take over Aho's spot, but he'll have to supplant him, it won't be given.  

Fantasy Outlook – Offensively, there are three questions surrounding the Islanders.

The first question is how Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal fare in a full season together. Barzal was injured just seven games after Horvat's acquisition, so they did not have much time to gel. The younger centre is also one of the top playmakers in the league, but his issue has been line mates. Over the last two seasons, his most common line mates are Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, Zach Parise, and Oliver Wahlstrom. Lee is still effective at his age but is one-dimensional offensively – being a limited playmaker – and prefers dump-and-chase than playing off the rush. Bailey might be out of the league now, Parise is a depth option, and Wahlstrom is still developing. Barzal has not had a Nikita Kucherov, a David Pastrnak, a Mikko Rantanen, or an Artemi Panarin on his wing for years, or even a season.

Horvat has averaged 35 goals/82 games over the last three campaigns. He is also not a great playmaker, but does play off the rush, and that differentiates him from Lee. New York's newest top centre is also wonderful in the faceoff dot, which should help with possession on offensive zone draws. Barzal should rack up the assists at even strength, though a lack of playmaker alongside him may continue to cap his goal-scoring upside to around 20 in a full season.

The second question is how Wahlstrom rebounds from his knee injury. He is a unique player in that he generates shot attempts at an elite rate, generates hits at a very good rate, but doesn't play many minutes. Adding Horvat muddles things because he is a left shot, but Barzal and Wahlstrom are both right-handed. If Horvat is taking faceoffs – he will take a lot of them – then one of Barzal or Wahlstrom would have to play on their off-wing. It might be something that keeps Wahlstrom from the top line and playing limited minutes down the lineup for the New York Islanders does not inspire confidence in fantasy value. Before Wahlstrom's injury, which was before the Horvat acquisition, the former was stuck on the second power-play unit. If he can't earn a top-line role, and is on the second power-play quintet, then the fantasy breakout will be pushed another year, at least.

The final question is the power play. The Islanders were 31^st in power-play opportunities per game in 2022-23, a repeat of what they did in 2021-22. In a time of the league's history where average teams are putting up 50-plus power play goals, and top-end teams between 60-65, the Islanders had 35 last year and 46 the year before. On top of that, Noah Dobson, a defenceman, led the Islanders in PP shot attempt rate in 2022-23. Lastly, there was a 60/40 ice-time split between the top and second units. A team that can't draw power plays, takes too many shots from the blue line, and isn't leaning on a top unit is not going to be a haven for PP offence. The silver lining is they heavily used their top quintet in the postseason, with both Horvat and Barzal in the lineup, so that TOI split may change in 2023-24.

Dobson continues to be a fantasy stud in multi-cat formats: he is the only defenceman to post at least 10 goals, 30 assists, 100 blocks, and 190 shots in each of the last two seasons. He also averaged 21 power-play points every 82 games. The Islanders started spreading the ice time among blue liners in 2022-23, though, as their top-4 all played between 20:20 and 21:40 a night. It puts something like a 60-point season out of reach for Dobson. Guys like Romanov, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield will continue to provide solid multi-cat value.

Of course, the focal point for the Islanders is in net. Ilya Sorokin leads all goalies in Goals Saved Above Expected over the last three seasons, both in totals and on a per-minute basis. In those years, he's second among regular starters in save percentage, second in goals against average, but 12^th in wins. If the team is better offensively with full years from Horvat and Wahlstrom, he could reach the 35-win mark for the first time. He's only won one game every 1.90 starts in those three years, whereas other high-end options like Linus Ullmark (1.43), Igor Shesterkin (1.58), and Jake Oettinger (1.68) win far more often because of their team's offensive abilities.

The Islanders have an all-world goalie and a top multi-cat defenceman that are great fantasy options. The forwards, though, have something to prove. We know the upside guys like Barzal, Horvat, and Nelson have, it's a matter of them hitting their stride at the same time.

Fantasy Grade – B- (last year was C)

Read all the other fantasy grade articles here.

(Data from Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and AllThreeZones)