Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. I’m practicing my skills by participating in mock drafts and writing about them afterward. Hopefully it helps you in some way with your draft while covering several players of interest. This isn’t my first mock draft of the season at Yahoo. I wrote about that draft here. I’ll go through my first three picks here and you can follow the link for more… Note that this is being written from a single-season (non-keeper) perspective. Standard positions and categories:

Round 1 (4^th overall): Matthew Tkachuk – I realize that picking Tkachuk when Nathan MacKinnon is available might seem silly, since MacKinnon has substantially outscored Tkachuk over the past three years. Tkachuk finished only two points behind MacKinnon in the scoring race in 2022-23, but MacKinnon also played eight fewer games. That might be one of the reasons to pick Tkachuk. Yes, Tkachuk. MacKinnon has missed 10+ games in each of the past two seasons, while Tkachuk has missed fewer than 10 games over the past five seasons combined. Tkachuk is also fairly close to MacKinnon in shots, and he also has a higher hits total. Tkachuk also has more 100-point seasons (2 to 1). If you think I’m wrong on this one, explain why in the comments. (aug26)

Player Compare: Tkachuk / MacKinnon

2. Round 2 (21^st overall): Jake Oettinger – The goalie run was already well underway with Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin being drafted earlier in the second around and Andrei Vasilevskiy and Alexandar Georgiev being drafted with the two picks after. This practice is clearly running counter to the Zero G movement that has occurred in drafts the past season or two (or more, depending who you talk to).

Is this cohort of goalies worth drafting over some of the other options that are usually available? I’ll be honest: I’m not enamored about the players being drafted around this spot or shortly after. The most common names based on Yahoo ADPs are Roope Hintz, William Nylander, Mika Zibanejad, Brayden Point, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, John Tavares, and Elias Pettersson. Of this group, I might pick one of Zibanejad, Point, or Pettersson here: Point for another run at 50 goals, or Pettersson for another run at 100 points. Zibanejad is an old standby of mine from seasons past, but I’m not quite sold that he’s a real threat for either milestone. Nylander might be okay in a scoring-only format, but he loses value in bangers leagues.

If you say “I’d pick (so-and-so) here,” ask yourself if it’s possible to wait another round or two (or more) before picking that player. A draft is not about picking a player at absolute value – it’s about maximizing the value of each pick you make. In other words, try to avoid reaching for a player. Goalies are volatile, but what if you found a goalie here that would carry your team all season? Then the pick is worth it. What I don’t recommend is reaching for a goalie, though. (aug26)

3. Round 3 (28^th overall): Tim Stutzle – I mentioned in a previous Ramblings that I had Stutzle undervalued in my most recent Roto Rankings. The more I think about it, the more I believe Stutzle is a star in the making in multicategory leagues. A point per game, three shots per game, and over a hit per game. Might be a slight reach here based on ADP (36), but my Fantasy Hockey Geek projections tell me otherwise.

I’ve got goaltending, left wing, and bangers categories taken care of for the moment. Now it’s time to focus on scoring categories. Over the next few picks, however, you’ll witness another position offer tremendous value. (aug26)

4. I started a series of Ramblings reviewing some players that I am targeting as good-values in early (pre-camp) fantasy hockey drafts. The lack of information in the NHL offseason can lead to good drafting opportunities, though they do carry risk because of that lack of information. It is a double-edged sword that can make drafting in August/early September a lot of fun. The ADP data will come from ESPN, which can be unreliable this early, but is the best guide we have (at the moment). Here are a few players from the Metro Division:

Carolina – Seth Jarvis (ESPN ADP: 228.3, Forward 152)

On ESPN, once a player reaches an ADP higher than 225, they’re basically last-round picks. Jarvis doesn’t really have a 229 ADP, he’s just taken in the early 200s in some drafts and early 300s in others. It is just how they aggregate that data.

It was a bad sophomore season for Jarvis following a stellar rookie campaign. Despite 385 more minutes played in 2022-23 versus 2021-22, Jarvis put up one fewer point. There were myriad reasons for this: Jarvis’s shooting percentage more than halved, the team scored over one goal less per 60 minutes with him on the ice at 5-on-5, and he managed a point on just 55.6% of goals against 66.7% the year before. The problem wasn’t just the team, though, as a lot of Jarvis’s micro stats cratered. (aug25)

5. New Jersey – Akira Schmid (ESPN ADP: 229.2, Goalie 39)

We won’t go long here because Schmid is someone I’ve discussed already this offseason. The crux is that even if Vitek Vanecek makes 50-55 starts, as long as New Jersey is a top team in the East and Schmid doesn’t blow up, his 25-ish starts would be enough to be a top-30 fantasy goalie. That might seem like faint praise, but it sets a floor for what he can do in the 2023-24 season. Should anything happen with Vanecek – underperformance, injury, or otherwise – Schmid would rocket up to a top-15 fantasy goalie. He is one of the backups to take a chance on as a third (or even fourth) fantasy net-minder. (aug25)

6. NY Rangers – Alexis Lafrenière (ESPN ADP: 226.8, Forward 142)

Outside of the top PP regulars, Jacob Trouba and K’Andre Miller in multi-cat formats, and Igor Shesterkin, mining for fantasy value is going to be tough. The veterans are leaned on, the only young forward that has proven himself is Filip Chytil, and Chytil is stuck behind Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck.

Lafrenière might be one of the wingers that thrives with the coaching change, though. A few months ago, on my personal blog, I wrote extensively about Laffy and how New York’s east-west offense didn’t play to his strengths. He thrives in the net-front area and has taken the time to finally develop a playmaking dimension. With a coach that’ll (likely) focus less on the east-west playmaking, Lafrenière could take his next step. Power-play ice time remains a hurdle and will cap his upside, but he has started hitting a lot and looks primed for across-the-board career highs. He is a guy to target late in banger drafts, and his ADP may keep dropping the longer his contract status remains in limbo. (aug25)

7. And here are a few players from the Atlantic Division. (Central and Pacific Division players next week):

Buffalo – Owen Power (ESPN ADP: 211.8, Defense 62)

If the Sabres can replicate their offensive success, this is a top-5 even-strength scoring team that should have a decent secondary power play. Those kinds of teams – think Florida last year or Calgary the year before – can usually support two 40-point defensemen, with the top PP guy having much higher upside. It is reason to think Rasmus Dahlin can have a 75-point season while Power improves on his 35-point rookie effort.

Power’s big issue is multi-cat value. He had just 27 hits in 1880 minutes last season. His 0.86 hits per 60 minutes was very close to the bottom of the league among regular defensemen, and lower than Quinn Hughes. Ask any multi-cat fantasy owner how overvalued Hughes can be in those formats.

The difference is it was Power’s first full season and he’s going to be cheap at the draft table. He was great in transition and had good playmaking numbers for a defenseman, and especially a rookie. The Sabres look to have another special young blue liner and he’s absolutely a 40-point threat. (aug24)

8. Detroit – Ville Husso (ESPN ADP: 219.8, Goalie 28)

This is an instance where the site being used matters. Yahoo! has Husso with an ADP inside the top-175as the 24^th goalie, while he is 111^th overall on Underdog as the 21^st goalie. If he can be had anytime outside the top-24 goalies, he’s someone to target as the third option on a roster.

By Evolving Hockey‘s expected goals and actual goals differentials, easily the four worst Detroit blue liners last year were Gustav Lindström (traded), Jordan Oesterle (now in Calgary), Olli Maatta, and Ben Chiarot. Half those names are gone, and the team added Justin Holl and Jeff Petry to steady their blue line. Where Chiarot and Määttä were both below-average by defensive impact, Petry and Holl were above average. There seems to be a clear plan here, even if it’s not a great one.

Detroit isn’t going to outright scratch Määttä and Chiarot every night, but Mattaa probably will be in the press box at times, and their ice time should go down regardless. Taking minutes away from bad defensive players and giving them to good defensive players should help Husso. How he responds is the gamble here, but Detroit should have fewer defensive lapses, and make the net-minder’s job easier. (aug24)

9. Ottawa – Thomas Chabot (ESPN ADP: 147.5, Defense 37)

It might seem like the 37^th defenseman is late, but he’s not far off on Yahoo! and is the 26^th blue liner on Underdog. He is not being drafted as a top-24 defenseman.

Chabot lost some ice time last year, has now been injured two years in a row, and has competition with Chychrun and Jake Sanderson. In 2022-23, his ESPN FPTS per game was tied with Matheson and at a top-20 rate. Even though Ottawa had tremendous difficulty scoring at even strength, and even though Chabot missed 14 games, his total ESPN FPTS output was a top-30 mark. There is a chance he will be drafted later than that.

Mixed in with Ottawa’s scoring issues was Chabot’s Individual Points Perentage (IPP). That measure tells us what percentage of team goals scored with a player on the ice resulted in the player receiving a point. At even strength last season, Chabot was at 27.3%, by far a career-low: Chabot’s rookie season saw him at 38.6%, and he had never been below 37%. Just a rate of 40% – below his three-year average of 42.5% – would have resulted in an extra 10 points. If Chabot had managed 51 points in 68 games, instead of 41, I wonder how high his ADP would be. He should be a top-25 blue liner off the board in any format. (aug24)

10. More summer hockey reading for you, our Offseason Fantasy Grades team articles. The first article appeared on Tuesday, August 8, and they will continue into September. You will be able to find the links to all of them here. Check them out! 

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11. Something caught my eye on Wednesday because it’s not a rumour, it’s directly from the player. Some European NHLers are doing a fan tour and there was an interesting quote from Elias Pettersson to reporter Dan Rosen:

"Elias Pettersson said his contract situation is “on hold” right now because the Canucks’ center has been focused solely on his training for the upcoming season. He said he knows it’s a big topic, but he doesn’t know what he wants to do yet, be it sign short term or long term."

Pettersson is entering the final year of his deal, and he’ll be an RFA after the season. He will be an unrestricted free agent the year after, though, and the cap is expected to go up a lot in the next two seasons. Pettersson signing a one- or two-year extension to try and cash huge in 2025 feels like something a lot of players are doing, so it doesn’t feel unrealistic. This is definitely something to monitor because he’s the single most important piece of their future. (aug24)

12. The Oilers locked up defenseman Evan Bouchard: 2x$3.9M. Their cap situation prohibited a long-term (and much higher AAV) extension and he'll be one year from UFA status when this new deal runs out. It will also end at the same time Leon Draisaitl becomes unrestricted. This team has two years to get to the Stanley Cup before they have a lot of decisions to make. (aug24)

13. Alexis Lafrenière also signed an extension, his being for two years just north of $2.3M a season. I really, really wish teams would offer-sheet more. There is no reason why a half-dozen rebuilding franchises didn’t put in a $4M AAV offer for Lafrenière other than cowardice.

13. There are two fantasy hockey draft seasons: the first is before training camp starts, and the second is during training camp/exhibition. The first season has little information; there may be some players with short- or medium-term injuries suffered in the summer that haven’t been reported, we usually don’t know how well (or not) players injured last season are recovering, we can only guess at line combinations, and there are still more transactions to come.

One example of this imperfect information is Andrei Svechnikov. He should be well into his on-ice rehab by now as he recovers from the knee surgery he had in March, but updates have been sparse, and there hasn’t been a lot of chatter regarding his status for the first game of the regular season. Anyone drafting today has to gamble on whether he’ll be his usual self for Game 1, maybe needs a dozen games to get up to speed or won’t start the season on time at all. Anyone drafting after training camp starts will have a lot more information on Svechnikov’s health, but so will everyone else in that fantasy league. It takes a bit of the risk out of the pick, but it would also take some of the value/upside out of it. That is the balancing act of drafting before Labour Day. (aug24)

14. A lot of us like playing the “Zero-Goalie” strategy, meaning we invest little or nothing in goalies at the draft table or in offseason moves, and then field whatever leftovers help us meet our minimum requirements. Oftentimes with goalie stats using averages, you can vin more than your fair share of categories or points with the under-heralded goalies. As a result, knowing which goalies to target in the late rounds can really make or break a season for us zero-goalie folks.

A few backups that I will be targeting this year with the chance to take over: Joseph Woll, Pyotr Kochetkov

The two sit behind some injury-prone goalies, and showed well with the chances they got last year. Kochetkov currently has two goalies in front of him, and will start the season in the minors (barring an early injury to one of the incumbents). Woll is not exempt from waivers, and will likely start the season as the backup in Toronto at the expense of Martin Jones. Of the two, Woll provides the closer production, but for those of you that have minors areas or N/A slots to stash goalies when they aren’t in the NHL, Kochetkov may provide better value.

Of the other “backup” options, there are a lot to consider: Daniil Tarasov, Joel Hofer, Akira Schmid, Devon Levi, Jack Campbell, and Connor Ingram to name a few.

Tarasov, Hofer, Ingram, and Schmid all outplayed their incumbent starters for stretches last season, and could be given bigger roles this year. They have some upside for wins and ratios in the case of Schmid and maybe Hofer, while Tarasov and Ingram may be better for those in volume-centric leagues.

15. The other interesting two are Levi and Campbell. Levi’s situation is well documented as the third goalie on the depth chart, but with the highest upside. He may not get a fair shake this season if not for a bad slump or injury from one of the goalies ahead of him, but he will eventually.

On the other side of the coin is Campbell, who was brought in by Edmonton as a free agent, and was one of those usurped starters last season. This year, being more familiar with the players, the systems, and the city, Campbell may be in a much better position to succeed. Having the big contract in his back pocket will ensure that he gets some chances to go on a run, though in this case it may not be the first one of the season as Stuart Skinner looks like he’s ahead on the depth chart at the moment.

The good thing about Campbell is that despite his tendency to have up-and-down stretches, the Edmonton Oilers have the ability to out-score a lot of goalie problems, and rack up wins anyways. In leagues where wins are kind and ratios are less important, Campbell could be a great (late) get this year.

16. Last week, I was perusing some preseason betting odds for everything from team point totals to player point totals, to awards and statistical achievements, and a few more. Among these betting odds was the Calder Trophy and, as expected, Connor Bedard is a massive, massive favourite to win. But it led me to another question: who else should we consider? I asked my Twitter followers to look at the graphic image (from DraftKings) and provide me with a guy they’d bet on to win Rookie of the Year other than Bedard at the odds that were offered.

For anyone needing a betting refresher, Bedard at (-140) means he’s priced as if there’s a 58% chance he’ll win. The next-closest player is Devils prospect defenseman Luke Hughes at (+600), which means he’s a 6-1 underdog, and about 14% to win. After that it’s Logan Cooley at (+900), or 9-1 and an even 10%. To compare to last year, I found an article from The Action Network that had Matty Beniers at (+500) – just under 17% – and he was the favourite. Bedard is in another stratosphere.

I got a lot of responses to my Twitter prompt, so I wondered what has to happen for someone other than Bedard to win the Calder Trophy? If that were to happen, they’d likely be a tremendous fantasy asset, so this is a way to get two birds stoned at once. Below are three names; you can see the rest by following the link… (aug22)

17. Luke Hughes (NJD-D)

Impediment: New Jersey has a top PP unit that gets the lion’s share of ice time, and Dougie Hamilton runs that unit. It was a mid-pack power play by goals per minute, but also New Jersey’s best power play in five years. The last three Calder winners from the blue line – Aaron Ekblad, Cale Makar, Moritz Seider – averaged 20 power-play points/82 games for their rookie season. Hughes won’t get there if he’s stuck on PP2 all season. Since 2007, the only defenseman to put up 30 even-strength points in his age-20 season is Ivan Provorov (31, 2017-18). Secondary PP minutes would probably leave Hughes shy of 40 points.  

Path To The Calder: The New Jersey power play would need to falter through the first month of the season as Hughes shows his tremendous upside. If he can supplant Hamilton sometime in the first 20 games, pushing Hughes over 20 minutes each night by mid-to-late-November in mostly offensive roles, it would put 50-plus points and a Calder Trophy on the table.

Logan Cooley (ARI-C)

Impediment: For the first time in several years, Arizona is trying to ice a competitive team. If this were August of 2022, Cooley may have a direct path to top-line minutes out of training camp. As it stands now, Barrett Hayton has the inside track to skating with Clayton Keller at all offensive strengths, Nick Bjugstad was brought back, and Alex Kerfoot – who played a lot of center until his last couple seasons in Toronto – was signed. The team has enough offense where Cooley might still get, say, Jason Zucker or Matias Maccelli on his line, but it’s a big gap in player quality and ice time.

Path To The Calder: The Hockey Prospecting model was high on Cooley, and his Draft+1 year only improved his stock.

Dustin Wolf (CGY-G)

Impediment: As Clarke is different from Hughes, Wolf is different from Levi. While the Buffalo goalie has no proven veteran ahead of him, Wolf has Jacob Markstrom to contend with. Markstrom had a pedestrian 2022-23 season, but he’s probably a mid-tier starter akin to John Gibson or Tristan Jarry when they’re healthy. If Markstrom starts strong out of the gate, Wolf just won’t get the starts, and Markstrom will get some leash to start the year.

Path To The Calder: All that said, Calgary won’t have patience for a bad start from their veteran goalies. If they struggle out of the gate, Wolf might be the starter by Game 10, and that could vault him right to the top of the Calder conversation. This isn’t really about Wolf. He could be excellent but if Markstrom has a bounce-back season, there’s not much the rookie can do about it. He needs the guys ahead of him to falter again, to take over the top gig very early in the season, and then to thrive. (aug22)

18. Tom Collins touches on this a bit in his Top 10 column Monday, but it never fails to leave me shaking my head when I see the fantasy hockey masses all gung-ho for the latest shiny new toy in goal. I see it every year, and when I ‘dare’ have that shiny new toy low in my rankings I hear it from them on Twitter or in the comments. Pay attention: a general manager of a billion-dollar company is not going to hand the keys to the castle to an unproven kid. That general manager will never do this. I don’t care how great the kid is and how terrible the current goaltender is, it’s simply not going to happen. My goodness, I still haven't recovered from the Spencer Knight vitriol I received three years ago…and two years ago…and last year…

Devon Levi is not Buffalo’s starter – and if he ends up there by the playoffs, it won’t be because he jumped out of training camp as the No.1 guy. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will likely be the starter as a 1A, with Eric Comrie as the 1B. Normally I would say Luukkonen, at 24, is too young. But he just started 33 games last year and has 46 NHL games under his belt overall. So we can say he’s been ‘eased in’. Comrie is signed for the most money of all the Buffalo goalies, and his overall numbers were very similar to Luukkonen’s. Levi’s numbers were the best of the group in his seven games, but he’s only 21. He’ll make his pro transition with Rochester. Buffalo is a team that will be top three league-wide in offense, so the hot dog vendor could get wins with this team. If you want a pick in the final round (or off the waiver wire), Luukkonen is your guy and, failing that, Comrie. Levi should not be drafted in one-year leagues, come on!

You’ll see Levi this year for sure, however, because Luukkonen gets hurt a lot. And Comrie is coming off of an injury-riddled season. Levi is the next in line. So we’ll see him. And he’ll probably be great behind this powerhouse offense. But whether we see him for six games or 36 games will depend on the health of the other two. If they spend much of the season on the IR, then yes – Levi will be worth drafting. But without that, he’s only a top own in keeper leagues. (aug21)

19. Tom also touches upon Pyotr Kochetkov. People are actually drafting Kochetkov in one-year leagues! There are literally two proven NHL goalies ahead of him, same as last year. And just like with Levi, Kochetkov is exempt from waivers. We’ll see Kochetkov because the goalies ahead of him get hurt a lot, but that’s what the waiver wire is for. When I see that fantasy hockey owners are making decisions such as drafting Kochetkov and Levi in re-draft leagues, I am saddened to realize that so many people do not read DobberHockey. Ah well, their loss is your gain. (aug21)

20. Brandon Hagel is a young (turns 25 next week) player who is on the rise with the Lightning. He was a 100-point player (102 to be exact) in junior, he made the NHL at 22, steadily improving his numbers in each season that he has played. He capped it off with 64 points last year playing with superstar Nikita Kucherov. He is seeing more and more time on both special teams, becoming a top two-way player. I think, despite the fact that Tampa Bay is aging with a couple of key players (Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman) possibly looking at the beginning of their decline, Hagel still has another level of production ahead of him. And once Kucherov (and their other linemate Brayden Point) helps Hagel surpass the 70-point plateau, Hagel will be able to get there on his own in future seasons. Hagel is entering his BT year. (aug21)

21. Yes, in this slow hockey news cycle I will be randomly picking players from my spreadsheet and talking about them. That was Hagel. Next up, is…

Connor McMichael is a top prospect whom fantasy owners are giving up on in droves. A first-round pick in 2019, McMichael then went onto scored 47 goals and 102 points in junior. He became a near-point-per-game player in the AHL as a rookie in the COVID-shortened season. Then he made Washington as a 20-year-old. At that time, you couldn’t peel that guy off of his fantasy owner no matter what you offered. Oh, how things have changed. Today I’m getting criticized for ranking him too high (23^rd in my Top 200 Fantasy Prospect Forwards list), while all these 18-year-olds are “too low”. Enough already with the shiny new toys! This is the same player who dazzled you a year and two years ago – except now you don’t have to wait as long for him to produce! It’s amazing how an owner will sour on a player if he gets sent to the minors and then his production dips. McMichael is still only 22, and because he is waivers-exempt for another year he could well end up back in Hershey. But that doesn’t mean you give up on him – he’s still likely going to be a top-six NHL player, be it this season or next. That 18-year-old you love so much today? Well, in three years he’ll probably be the next McMichael you will criticize me for overrating while you look at the next 18-year-old. And round and round we go… (aug21)

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Have a good week, folks!

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