Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

I'm sure some of you reading this are just now starting to think again about fantasy hockey after taking the last month – or even longer – off. Let's try to make up for lost time by doing a deep dive on three skaters (Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson and Alex Pietrangelo) in order to determine who, in 2022-23, was too hot and too cold, and whose production was "just right." As important as reading this column is trying to guess which player falls into which category, to see if your instincts – whether honed by studying all summer or not – are spot on.

Rasmus Dahlin (78 GP, 15G, 58A, 205 SOG, 25:48 TOI, 32 PPPts, 3:35 PP, 66.7% PP%)

Selected first overall in 2018, there was little doubt as to whether Dahlin would stick with the then struggling Sabres. Indeed he did, posting a pretty decent 44 points. After that though, his scoring rose, but then plummeted, before rising back to a pace similar to that of his second season. Meanwhile though, several other high profile young d-men were making bigger marks, leading some to wonder if Dahlin would fulfill lofty expectations that came with being grabbed first overall. Well after 2022-23 they wondered no more, as Dahlin rose to a 77 point pace. Will he be like Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes and stay at or near that same level, or could Dahlin have yet another gear? Signs suggest we've yet to see even close to the best Dahlin has to offer.

One thing that might not still be fresh on everyone's mind is how great Dahlin was doing prior to getting hurt at the end of February. Before that happened, he had 62 points in just 56 games. After coming back from the injury – perhaps too soon – he proceeded to tally only one point in nine games while going a collective -13. He righted his ship somewhat thereafter, tallying ten points in his final 13 games; however, clearly he was not the same player he'd been through the first two thirds of the season. Had Dahlin not gotten hurt and kept up the same pace, his season-long scoring rate would've been 91 points. Yes, it is true that injuries happen; but it's not normal for the after-effects to be so pronounced. Plus, it's likely the Sabres rushed Dahlin back to try to cling to their sliver of playoffs hopes; and had they to do it all over again they'd have let him more completely heal. As far as it goes for 2023-24 scoring predictions, right there we can point to glaring evidence that he was better last season than his 77-point pace would suggest.

Interestingly, there's even more to like about Dahlin, as his PP IPP was a very healthy 65.8%; yet that was the second lowest mark of his career! Another casualty of his injury was his PP scoring, as he managed only five in those 22 games, likely dragging down his IPP in the process. Whereas one could've attributed Dahlin's high PP IPP in past seasons to the lack of Sabres offensive firepower, let's keep in mind the team's PP clicked at the ninth best rate among all NHL teams. Thus, there was a very real threat of Dahlin's PP IPP eroding in the face of other players with a nose for scoring. That didn't occur, or at least not until after he got injured. So things stand to improve for him on the PP in the normal course.

But wait – there's even more! Dahlin's 58 assists were sixth most among all d-men; but each of the five ahead of him had secondary assist rates of 44.7%+ (47.7% average), versus Dahlin's 39.7%. In fact, the highest assist total of any d-man with a lower secondary assist rate was 38, or 20 less than Dahlin! In short, Dahlin should've had probably a handful or even more secondary assists just based on data from other players.

What's also to like is Dahlin raised his SOG per game by almost 25%, yet his SH% was right in line with last season's rate. Keep in mind Dahlin had just two goals on 87 SOG in the second half; so even before his injury he was getting unlucky in the goals department. On top that he hit four crossbars and six posts, with just three defensemen in the entire league for whom the iron was less unkind.

What about Dahlin's overall IPP? Probably that was unsustainably high, right? Nope. It was a good bit lower than two of his prior three seasons. Again, this is somewhat due to Buffalo fielding a better team; however, a better team means more goals. In fact, the Sabres upped their goal total from 2021-22 to 2022-23 by 28%, whereas Dahlin's drop in IPP from the 2021-22 season to 2022-23 was only 14%. In other words, even if Dahlin's IPP was to stay as low as it was in 2022-23, he still should have a net gain in scoring because a rising tide did, in this case, lift all boats, including his.

I know usually I write a bit more about players I cover; however, when the data is so far and away pointing in one direction there is no sense beating a dead horse. And it certainly will not take a rocket scientist to tell that Dahlin's 2022-23 production was TOO COLD. I know that Erik Karlsson became the first d-man in over 30 seasons to score 100 points, but I think Dahlin might be able to achieve the feat in 2023-24, as that's how amazing his numbers are and how much he stands to gain from what he already did, especially if he stays healthy. Dahlin gets a rating of 1.5, as I see 85-90 points as a downside, and 100+ within reach.

Tage Thompson (78 GP, 47G, 47A, 297 SOG, 18:35 TOI, 34 PPPts, 3:21 PP, 61.7% PP%)

Dahlin's teammate Thompson was a late first round pick by the Blues, for whom he logged 41 NHL games the following season, scoring at an 18 point pace. That earned him a ticket out of St. Louis; and upon landing in Buffalo, he managed to somehow do worse, to the tune of a 15-point pace in 65 games. Signs of some hope came in the form of 14 points in 38 games in 2020-21; however, not even the staunchest of Thompson believers likely saw what was coming next, which was a 71 point pace 2021-22, punctuated by 45 points in his final 43 games. And lest anyone think that was a fluke, Thompson ascended to elite levels by scoring at a 99 point pace in 2022-23. Can he raise the bar even more, or might he have overperformed? Neither, as we should look for more of the same in 2023-24 and beyond.

Although Thompson played the same number of games – 78 – in 2022-23 than he did for 2021-22, he potted nine more goals, or 23% more. Yet his SH% was virtually unchanged, at 15.8% versus 15.0%. So despite him taking more shots, he scored at an identical rate. Yes, it's only two seasons worth of data; however, even that goes a long way toward legitimizing him as a center who can pot goals and shoot at a high % despite firing well over three SOG per game. It's even possible that it could rise further, as his rate was 17.7% prior to Q4, which is when he was injured and tallied just five goals on 60 SOG. Also, his SOG per game rate was 4.3 in the first half. If he was to somehow sustain those SOG and SH% rates for an entire season, he'd tally 62 goals. That seems unrealistic, but 50+ might not be.

Another positive barometer regarding Thompson's shooting is in 2022-23 he hit 15 posts and one crossbar. To put that in perspective, only two other forwards since 2001-02 had more than 16 combined posts and crossbars! His already amazing goal totals and SH% are all the more impressive considering how unkind the iron was to him.

Thompson is also proof as to why I think IPP is a great barometer of future potential, as even when he managed just 14 points in 38 games for the Sabres in 2020-21, his overall IPP was 73.7%; sure enough for 2022-23 it was 74.0%. It's not like it was low during his breakout 2021-22 season either, as it was 68.7%. What we see is a player who had a nose for scoring that has been maintained even as his role expanded and the quality of his linemates vastly improved. This lends legitimacy to Thompson's 2022-23 production rate.

Thompson also was above 70% IPP on the PP, at 70.8%, up a tad from 69.6% in 2021-22. This too is very encouraging, as Thompson took the ice for 43 more PP seconds per game in 2022-23 versus 2021-22 and his PPPt total more than doubled. How could that have happened? The team as a whole fared better, with Thompson benefitting due to a rising tide lifting all boats but also his continued ability to factor into man advantage scoring.

Where I have concern, however, is in looking at Thompson's ice time, which averaged at 18:35 per game, with 3:21 of that on the PP. Of the 105 instances of forwards who scored at or above 94 points (i.e., Thompson's total for 2022-23), just six others took the ice for less than 18:35 per game. Of those, only two (Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, both in 2021-22) were under age 30 when doing so, and Gaudreau's scoring went way down the following season while Thachuk's didn't because he added over 2:30 in ice time per game. With Thompson's ice time not rising despite his success, it calls into question whether he can improve upon what he's done, if not actually be at risk of giving some points back.

Another source of concern is Thompson's OZ%, which, at 63.9% in 2022-23 is realistically maxed out. Does it mean it will drop? I'm not saying that; however, the fact it can't go any higher and could drop is a factor that merits consideration. On the plus side Thompson had a secondary assist rate of 42.6%, which is very solid for a center. Yes, he is not a typical center in that he is a shoot first goal scorer. But his rate was just a few points higher than another shoot first, high scoring center in Jack Hughes, and thus is not worrisome.

Other than Hughes, are there players to whom Thompson can be compared? If we go back to 1990-91 and look at centers who had 45+ goals and 45+ assists in a season while also averaging 3.8 SOG per game or higher by age 25, and are who are not currently younger than Thompson, we land on Eric Lindros, Evgeni Malkin, Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, and Pierre Turgeon. How did each of them subsequently fare after accomplishing the feat? All except for Lindros, who began to have injury issues, had at least one season of a 95+ point scoring rate, but none had more than three. So Thompson might be near his pinnacle now, especially if his ice time doesn't somehow improve, which is unlikely to be the case in view of the potent second line that the Sabres have.

Looking at SOG, SH%, posts and crossbars, and IPPs, it seems like Thompson could surpass 100 points. But once we temper those with realities in the form of ice time, maxed out OZ% and player comparables, it seems more likely that he will continue to produce at or near the same rate. As such, Thompson's 2022-23 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.5. We should look for him to produce right around a 100-point rate on a going forward basis.

Alex Pietrangelo (73 GP, 11G, 43A, 171 SOG, 23:59 TOI, 14 PPPts, 2:26 PP, 57.7% PP%)

Another ex-Blue, Pietrangelo has had one of the steadiest runs of production of any player in fantasy, as he's scored at between a 45 and 57 point pace for nine of 13 seasons. But his best two outputs – each a 61 point pace – have come in the last four campaigns, including last season. Could it be that he's turning into an even better producer in his 30s? In a word, no, as the data points toward him being more like what he'd been previously, namely a player who's instead likely to be in the 50 point range.

While 23:59 in ice time per game seems like a lot – and make no mistake, it is – Pietrangelo's average had been climbing the previous three seasons and this marked a 40 second decrease. And in fact he hadn't been below 24:00 per game since his first full season. On top of that, even as Pietrangelo's ice time per game rate had been on the rise, his SOG per game rate had been heading in the opposite direction, with 2022-23 marking a third straight season where it decreased and it standing at nearly one full SOG per game less than the prior season where he also posted a 61 point scoring pace. Something seems awry.

It's not his SH%, which was well within reason. It also wasn't his PPPt rate, which, for the second season in a row, was unremarkable, as in 2021-22 he tied for 29th in PP scoring among rearguards and received the 29th most PP time, while for 2022-23 his PPPt total was tied for 31st and his PP TOI 34th. So he neither thrives nor lags on the man advantage.

Where does the explanation lie? Yes, the Knights in 2022-23 averaged 3.26 goals per game while the 2019-20 St. Louis team for which Pietrangelo also sported a scoring pace of 61 was a tad less potent at 3.14 goals per game. That might have given Pietrangelo perhaps a couple of added points, or not enough to explain his output.

What tells the story is IPP, as Pietrangelo's was 51.4%, versus an average of 41.5% over the prior four seasons. In his 61-point scoring pace 2019-20 campaign it was 44.8%. But his IPP in 2022-23 being about 23% higher than his average over his most recent four seasons, in a campaign where he also set a career best in scoring rate, is a big sign of unsustainable good luck. What of his PP IPP? It was 60.9%, or much closer to his prior four-season average of 58.7%. But while that doesn't mean he was even more unsustainably lucky, it, coupled with his PPPt date from this season and last, also doesn't' suggest he will be able to offset much, if any, of his unsustainable ES good luck via any added PP production.

As for other metrics, Pietrangelo's secondary assist percentage was 55.8%, which, for a rearguard is not too high, but certainly is not low either. Moreover, Pietrangelo's OZ% when he previously had a 61-point scoring rate was 52.9%, or a slight bit better than the 50.9% it was in 2022-23. Also, the iron was kind to Pietrangelo who, despite hitting double digits in goals, managed just one crossbar and no posts.

What about player comparables? At 13 instances, Pietrangelo is far and away the leader going back to 1990-91 in number of seasons in which a defenseman appeared in 40+ games between the ages of 21 and 33 while averaging 0.5 to 0.75 points per game. The only other two who were in double digits were Shea Theodore and Keith Yandle. How did they fare from age 34 onward? With Weber we can't really tell because of injuries, but Yandle went from posting 45 points in 62 games at age 33, to just 48 combined points in 133 games before retiring after his age 35 season. Not good.

Pietrangelo has been one of the most unspectacular but remarkably consistent rearguards in terms of his scoring. The story does not check out when it comes to his 61-point scoring pace for the 2022-23 season, as it was the result of an unsustainably high IPP not to mention hitting only one crossbar and no posts. Despite leaving no stone unturned, as you read there was nothing else that was unsustainably unlucky which could offset the points he gained via an inflated IPP. Accordingly, Pietrangelo's 2022-23 was TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 8.75, suggesting a scoring pace of 50 points would be more reasonable, with a couple more if the Vegas offense thrives like it did in the playoffs.

***********************

Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for a couple more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.