For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 21^st annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

Be sure to pick up your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.

Gone – Carson Soucy, Morgan Geekie, Daniel Sprong, Karson Kuhlman, Alex True, Jesper Froden, John Hayden, Ryan Donato, Joonas Donskoi, Brogan Rafferty, Martin Jones

Incoming – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Kailer Yamamoto, Devin Shore, Brian Dumoulin

Impact of Changes – Up front, Seattle lost some depth. Each of Sprong (66), Geekie (69), and Donato (71) all played at least 65 games while Kuhlman had been a press-box warrior for a couple seasons before heading to Winnipeg. Sprong (2^nd) and Donato (4^th) were among the team's leaders in goals per minute at 5-on-5, so this is genuine offensive depth lost from a team that relied on four-line scoring to succeed. Sprong also tied for the team lead in points per minute while on the power play, so there's at least one open PP spot with big shoes to fill. Donskoi missed all of 2022-23 with concussion issues and retired. A very unfortunate turn of events for the winger, but all the best to him and his family in the future.

Over his two seasons in Seattle, Soucy averaged 151 hits and 98 blocks every 82 games, while skating under 17 minutes a night. He was great on the third pair for Seattle, and there is no guarantee Dumoulin, or an internal replacement, replicates what Soucy did.  

Some of the depth will be replaced with Bellemare and Shore on fourth-line/press box duty, and Yamamoto in their middle-6. Yamamoto spent the vast majority of his last three seasons in Edmonton on a line with one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, if not both, skating over 16 minutes a night in each season. He could reach that TOI level again, but it won't be with comparable line mates, so it's hard to say he'll be better offensively.

Dumoulin is a possible replacement for Soucy and it's fair to wonder if he'll succeed. He struggled mightily in Pittsburgh last year and wasn't great in 2021-22. Turning 32 years old in September, Father Time might have come for the two-time Stanley Cup champion, and the team doesn't have the defensive depth to replace a poor performance on top of any other issues that crop up. It isn’t a huge change for the Seattle skaters, but it may hurt the goaltending.

Ready For Full Time – Shane Wright

The only lock (if there exists such a thing) among the Kraken prospects to make the opening night roster is Wright. He returned to the OHL for part of last season and throttled the competition with 37 points in 20 games. He had four goals in eight AHL games, too. Seattle has 14 NHLers signed, but they can easily bury a contract from Shore or Kole Lind to make room for Wright. The 2022 fourth overall pick is an easy replacement for Sprong on the power play, but the team split its power play units and he'll be in the 12- to 14-minute range at even strength. He is almost certainly capped at 16 minutes a night at the absolute most, and is a threat for AHL demotion because of his waiver exemption. There is no real fantasy value here in most one-year leagues, but he's still someone to watch as the season progresses.

It might be another year before Tye Kartye is an 82-game NHLer, but he looked great for the Kraken in the 2023 playoffs. Kartye had five points in 10 postseason contests. In the postseason, he skated bottom-6 minutes and managed a whopping 44 hits. A start to the season in the AHL looks likely, but he could force the hand of the coaching staff quickly if their NHL wingers underperform or are injured, and he'll instantly become a name to remember for banger leagues. It is not far-fetched that he quickly proves a better option than wingers like Lind, Yamamoto, or Brandon Tanev.

Fantasy Outlook – This is a precarious situation. Seattle was first in the league in goals per minute at 5-on-5 but did so with the highest team shooting percentage in an 82-game season since at least 2007-08. Even with all those goals, they only had three forwards reach at least 50 points, Jared McCann led the way with 70, and he was the only player to reach 25 goals (Beniers had 24). Seattle was 21^st by power play opportunities per game, split their PP units, and didn't have a single forward in the top-third of the league by on-ice goal rate with the man advantage. A team that doesn't draw a lot of power plays, splits the PPTOI they do get, and isn't efficient with their PP scoring hurts fantasy values tremendously – no Seattle player was among the top-100 NHL skaters in total power play points.

It isn't hard to envision a drop-off offensively. Repeating (literally) historic shooting percentages with meagre power play output is very small needle to thread. Something has to change if this team is to have multiple skaters with substantial fantasy value.

Last season, no Seattle forward reached 220 minutes of PPTOI, but they had nine forwards with at least 110. Across the league, there were 125 forwards that skated between 110-220 minutes with the extra man, and none of them had more than 25 PP points. Of those 125 players, only seven reached 20 PPPs, and three of them came from Los Angeles. If Seattle doesn't draw way more penalties, or doesn't change their PP usage, expecting more than 20 PPPs from any of their players is expecting too much.

Vince Dunn had the breakout year we have been expecting for many seasons, reaching 64 points in 81 games. The team also shot 13.2% with him on the ice at even strength, and he was the only regular defenceman in the league to clear 13%. In fact, he was the only defenceman to clear 12%. If that were to fall to 11% in 2023-24 (a rate that would still have him among the elite in the NHL), he'll be on the ice for 20 fewer goals and that means 9-10 fewer points. Again, something has to change for him to retain 60-point potential. No one else on the blue line reached 35 points so guys like Adam Larsson and Will Borgen have much more value in multi-cat formats than points-only ones.

Neither Jones nor Philipp Grubauer had a .900 save percentage last season and that makes two straight pedestrian-to-bad seasons for Grubauer. Chris Driedger is back in the mix, along with Joey Daccord, but the team will need more from Grubauer if the goal scoring takes a hit. Seattle didn't take many penalties and that should help Grubauer from having a lot of blow-up games, but the team's goaltending remains a gambit.

Seattle is a balanced offensive team with a high-end youngster in Matty Beniers. The blue line and goaltending leave a lot to be desired, and there isn't much to love in the fantasy game at those two positions outside of Dunn. As has been often repeated, this team can't rely on league-leading shooting percentages for success. They need to generate more shots, more PP opportunities, have a lopsided top PP unit, or preferably all three, to mitigate the incoming shooting percentage regression for some of their players. The Dobber Guide doesn't have a single Kraken player projected for 70 points but two (Beniers, McCann) projected for at least 60. That feels right and indicates Seattle is in tough to repeat their success last season. More than anything, fantasy owners need to see life from the power play. A bunch of guys with 12-18 PPPs doesn't do any good for the higher-end fantasy options.

Fantasy Grade – C+ (last year was C+)

Read all the other fantasy grade articles here.

Data from Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and Cap Friendly.