For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 21^st annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

Be sure to pick up your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.

Gone – Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari, Ivan Barbashev, Tyler Pitlick, Martin Frk, Matthew Highmore, Josh Leivo (still unsigned), Luke Witkowski, Dmitri Samorukov, Thomas Greiss

Incoming – Kevin Hayes, Jakub Vrana, Kasperi Kapanen, Oskar Sundqvist, Sammy Blais, Mikhail Abramov, Adam Gaudette, Wyatt Kalynuk, Malcolm Subban

Impact of Changes – Some of the changes occurred at the 2023 Trade Deadline but bear repeating because they overhauled the forward group. Captain Ryan O'Reilly was shipped with Acciari and aside from draft picks, they got some AHL depth in return. It immediately opened two roster spots while Leivo remaining unsigned opens a third.

Vrana, Blais, and Kapanen were acquired late last season, Hayes before free agency started, and Sundqvist returns from Detroit/Minnesota. Whatever roster spots opened by the veterans being traded (or leaving) were filled by other veterans that were acquired by various means. With five key forward pieces returning, the other five just mentioned, plus younger guys/depth options like Alexey Toropchenko and Jake Neighbours, the St. Louis forward group was reloaded.

The lack of centres led to Brayden Schenn taking over 1000 faceoffs in a season for just the second time in his career, and first time since 2017-18. Hayes being brought in should spell off Schenn a bit, but Schenn's multi-position eligibility in the fantasy game could lead to a lot of face-off wins from a wing position. Hayes had 54 points last year but may be stuck behind Schenn and Robert Thomas as the third-line centre.

In Washington, Vrana was one of the most efficient goal scorers in the NHL, in league with names like David Pastrnak and Nikita Kucherov. His use of the Player's Treatment Program limited him to 62 games since leaving Washington, but he's remained an elite shooter since his Capitals tenure. He brings great scoring talent to the Blues though his TOI levels remain an ongoing issue and that caps his upside.

Bringing in Hayes, Vrana, and Kapanen basically gives the Blues an entire scoring line that they had lost over the last couple years with O'Reilly, Ivan Barbashev, and David Perron moving on. It keeps impediments in place for younger guys like Neighbours and Toropchenko.

Ready For Full Time – Nikita Alexandrov, Hugh McGing, Scott Perunovich, Tyler Tucker, Joel Hofer

There are familiar names here as Hofer has gotten into games for the Blues in each of the last two seasons while both Tucker and Perunovich have 45 NHL appearances between them.

Hofer may have the most fantasy impact of the young group. Starting goalie Jordan Binnington has seen a steady decline since his Cup win in 2019. At best, he's in the Sergei Bobrovsky/Carter Hart tier of unreliable fantasy starters, and he could be a backup by Thanksgiving. Hofer, meanwhile, has improved each year in the AHL and St. Louis wants to get back to the playoffs. He could do to Binnington what Binnington did to Jake Allen in 2019.

Perunovich is a name keeper/dynasty owners have had an eye on for years. He was highly touted coming out of college, even as a mid-second round pick, and has 44 points in 39 AHL games. He missed much of 2022-23 recovering from a shoulder injury and has the ability to run a power play. The roster on the blue line, like the forwards, remains an impediment: the Blues have seven veteran defencemen under contract for 2023-24 and the youngest is Calle Rosen, who turns 30 years old in February. Perunovich may have a season like Noah Dobson had in 2021: decent levels of PPTOI but buried on the depth chart, leading to low overall minutes and minimal fantasy impact. It is a precarious situation for his immediate fantasy value.

McGing turned 25 in the offseason. If he can't make an impact this fall, it may never happen for him.

Alexandrov had 19 goals and 38 points in the AHL last season and looks primed to earn a bottom-6 role in October. If he can maintain his hit rates from his 28-game debut last season, he could have multi-cat value in deeper banger formats.

Fantasy Outlook – For several years now, the Blues employed an offence that focused on quality rather than volume. For several years, that worked well enough, and that was true in 2022-23: they finished 25^th in 5-on-5 shots per minute but 11^th in goals. Over the final 20 games of the season, they were 3^rd in 5-on-5 scoring rate, trailing only Colorado and Florida. Despite sizable changes these last two seasons, the beat goes on. With high-end offensive stars like Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Pavel Buchnevich, there is more than enough talent to sustain two good scoring lines, and probably one high-end line.

Thomas is an interesting name. He broke out for 77 points in 72 games in 2021-22 before dropping to 65 points in 73 games last season. The note here is registered a point on nearly 71% of Blues goals scored with him on the ice at even strength from 2018-2021. Two years ago, that was 70.6% but cratered under 60% in 2022-23. It cost him around seven points, which would have pushed him over 70 on the season. He is a true 70-point player, though his peripherals are poor.  

Kyrou saw the team score less frequently with him on the ice and that cost him nearly one-third of his even-strength assist total from 2021-22 (down to 23 from 33 even with five more games played). It is a blip in his playmaking that should rebound and see him push 80 points in a healthy year. Buchnevich has similar upside.

The real question for the fantasy game is how everyone else fares. Schenn played all 82 games and reached both 60 points and 140 hits for the first time in five seasons (he may have gotten there in 2019-20 had the regular season played out). He did that with just 15 power-play points, down from 17 in 62 games the year prior. Whether at wing or centre, he's a 20-goal, 60-point, 125-hit threat.

Saad, Hayes, and Kapanen all have similar production outlooks with all being reasonable 40-point threats though none of them may reach 50. Vrana could be an elite fantasy producer with 18 minutes a night, but at 15 minutes, expecting more than 30 goals and 60 points is too lofty.  

The blue line is aging but there is still value in Justin Faulk after posting two straight seasons with at least 10 goals, 30 assists, 100 blocks, 110 hits, and two shots per game… Torey Krug saw his ice time nuked to 18:35 a game last season, over 2:30 less per game than Nick Leddy. Last season, the only regular NHL defenceman to reach 40 points and average under 19 minutes a game was Evan Bouchard. If Krug's usage doesn't improve, with his already-meagre peripherals, 40 points should be seen as his upside, and that's a steep drop in expectations… Colton Parayko remains a steady multi-cat fantasy option… Perunovich may get some run on the power play but if he's skating 16-17 minutes a night, he's a worse version of Krug.

Binnington has had two very poor seasons in a row and with the team's desire to return to the playoffs, he won't get a third. His first month of the season will tell us a lot about how they're going to handle their goalies all year. It makes Hofer a risky late-round option in fantasy drafts. The incumbent could be a good fantasy value, as goalies can be volatile, but relying on him as a steady second fantasy goalie is rife with peril.

Fantasy Grade – B- (last year was a B)

Read all the other fantasy grade articles here.

Data from Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, and Cap Friendly.