Ramblings: Woll, Korchinski, Kulich, Some Goalie Talk, and More… (Sep 11)

Dobber

2023-09-11

The 18th annual Fantasy Guide is available for immediate download in the shop. Last week I updated Tampa's roster for the Tyler Motte signing, put in my Top 50 Calder favorites, and the projected NHL standings, as well as the latest tryouts. Business is about to pick up in the NHL – and those updates will come flying at your often.

By now you know that Goalie Post has an app, and you made a note to download it since it's free and can give you email (and soon to have push) notifications of any last-minute goalie changes. But please download it now, as my ad agency won't set me up until I have 10,000 downloads. Rate it, review it, so I can reach that goal and get 'real' ads on there instead of Google's crappy ones. Within the app's Starting Goalie Grid are probable win projections – a bar that goes right or left towards the team the calculation favors…goes further, the more of a favorite that team is. There is also a projected save bar for each starting goalie.

Get it on your iPhone here. And after you download it, give it a day or two, and then please rate five stars and comment.

Get it on your Android here!

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In an effort to see if 'Threads' is ready for fantasy hockey, I posted a question there asking for Ramblings topics (Threads account here: https://www.threads.net/@dobberhockey). I did get one! Here it is, from kolson10:

https://www.threads.net/@kolson.10/post/CxCESOmL7yM

Dobber, question for you: I've noticed a trend of people denying that goalies matter in fantasy. They say, “The position isn’t predictable!”. Yet, at the same time these people are reaching for young prospects like Levi and Wallstedt as if they are layups long term. What gives?

Well, there is a movement out there dubbed the Zero Goalie System (via Apples & Ginos podcast), which to me is just a more extreme form of my tiered goalie system in which I say don't draft any goalie until you feel the last goalie available in the first tier won't be around for your next pick. This could happen by the fourth round, or it may not happen until the 12th round or later – it all depends on the personalities in your league. And then you do the same thing with the second tier. Because when it comes to goalies in the same tier, one is as good as another. The Zero Goalie System is to not draft a goalie until the last two rounds, or not at all (and grab the scraps off the waiver wire). Both systems cater to the idea that goalies are unpredictable and not worthy of wasting good draft picks on, and instead focus on the best group of skaters. The Zero Goalie is for one-year leagues (I'm pretty sure, correct me if I'm wrong), because in keeper or dynasty leagues, not having a goalie is death – because all the goalies will be owned.

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Just a thought, but Michael Bunting has a reputation for being pretty annoying/getting under people's skin. Tony DeAngelo has one for being a bit of a hothead. The two of them being teammates – is that a powder keg waiting for a match?

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Earlier I mentioned my Top 50 Calder picks that just went into the Fantasy Guide and I thought I'd dig in a little bit on a few of them. Obviously, unless every single hockey expert and fan is extremely wrong, this award is already being handed to Connor Bedard – and only an injury will stop him. So really this is just Bedard plus 49 other promising rookies who will compete from one of the other two nomination slots.

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9 – Leo Carlsson, Anaheim. I am leaning towards him not making the team because…why rush him? They can bring him in a year from now when they are better equipped to challenge for a playoff spot. Plus, they can push his ELC back a year. Lots of benefits to holding him off for a year and letting him play in the SHL. But if he's absolutely lights-out in camp, then it might force the matter. Carlsson making this team would have a domino effect on players like Alex Killorn, Mason McTavish, Adam Henrique (probably in a bad way with Henrique), Cam Fowler, Jamie Drysdale, Ryan Strome (likely in a bad way for him too). It would also likely bump Carlsson a few slots higher on this list.

11 – Joseph Woll, Toronto. This could be a sneaky pick, or it may end up being nothing at all. Woll is going to be Toronto's backup goalie. But Ilya Samsonov gets injured a lot. Each time Samsonov gets sidelined is an opportunity for Woll to sneak some easy wins behind a top five roster. The more time Samsonov misses, the higher in rookie voting Woll will go.

15 – Kevin Korchinski, Chicago. This one was tough because it's a Catch-22. He could make the team and then seriously flourish thanks to Bedard, who will win the Calder. But if Bedard gets hurt…then Korchinski won't flourish because there's no Bedard. Either way – no Calder. But I couldn't leave him off the list, as he is potentially a top rookie.

24 – Jiri Kulich, Buffalo. The 28th overall pick last year was thrown straight into North American pro hockey as an 18-year-old, which is not an overly common though it happens from time to time. But he flourished! His 24 goals (in 62 AHL games) led Rochester. On many NHL teams, he's pushing for a roster spot. But on Buffalo? Even with Jack Quinn sidelined, they have seven other young, high-upside forwards fighting for top-six ice time. And that's not even factoring in Jordan Greenway, who I think team brass really wants to push hard to succeed, nor Victor Olofsson. He'll be up and down (NHL-AHL) all season long, I suspect.

45 – Ruslan Iskhakov, NY Islanders. A future Dobber Darling? Perhaps. He's 5-9 with loads of skill and he made a huge splash in his AHL debut with 51 points in 69 games. Right now I don't have him making the team, but at this point on my list (high 40s) is when I take my longshots and throw out some hunches. As the current Islanders' roster looks, I see Julien Gauthier and Simon Holmstrom as easy pickings for a hotshot rookie to steal their job. I also see Oliver Wahlstrom as quite injury prone. And don't get me started on Ross Johnston, who to this day I'm convinced has compromising photos of somebody in order to even have an NHL job.

49 – Tye Kartye, Seattle. The Kraken are too deep for this one to pan out, but as I already noted – this is when I start throwing things at the wall and see what sticks. Kartye more than held his own over 10 games in the playoffs, and posted 57 points in 72 games as an AHL rookie. His ascension into R-O-Y talks would requite at least three or four key injuries to the Seattle lineup, though.

50 – Matthew Phillips, Washington. A legitimate Dobber Darling right here, his development had some poor timing. NHL-ready and of that age (24) where he needs to make the jump, Phillips had the misfortune of Darryl Sutter coaching Calgary. Right at that key time. And at 5-7, you know Phillips isn't getting any kind of extended stay under Sutter. Now 25, he joins the Caps, which is a team that may have room for him. A long shot, but I'm pulling for him.

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See you next Monday.

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