Ramblings: Roto Rankings Changes, 14-Team Mock Draft (Sept 16)
Ian Gooding
2023-09-16
In case you missed it, we've made some major changes to the Top 100 Roto Rankings for September. If you're participating in any multicategory league drafts soon, I encourage you to have a look.
As I've always said, feel free to leave feedback. In making these changes, I'm hoping that we are being more amenable to what the regular readers and visitors are looking for. The blocked shots category is being used in more and more leagues and allows for a broader player pool, so it was a change that I had in mind for a while. Dropping plus/minus was a tough choice since it is still very widely used (at least in my experience), but there are too many negative opinions about its validity nowadays when you compare it to advanced stats. Say what you want about penalty minutes, but it's a necessary stat in bangers leagues.
I should also give a shout out to the fine work that Hockey Bangers is doing. If you're on Twitter, you should definitely be following them. In the Roto Rankings, there is a link to their full worksheet, which includes category projections that create a bangers score for each player that go above and beyond to include a top 300. In other words, you get to see how the machine is built along with rankings above and beyond what we previously had in the Roto Rankings.
–
Time for another mock draft. One change: Unlike the previous 12-team drafts I participated in, this is a 14-team mock draft, so this team shouldn't look quite as deep as other teams that I've mock drafted. Having 14 teams also means that we dip a little deeper into the player pool. In addition to that, certain forwards had added eligibility as of last weekend, which made draft decisions a little more flexible.
As I've done for all my mock drafts so far, you can see full results at my personal blog Goods Fantasy Hockey. It's the usual Yahoo default settings of Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Powerplay Points, Shots on Goal, Hits, Wins, Goals Against Average, Save Percentage, and Shutouts, and standard positions of C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN.
By the way, I used an online random number generator to select my draft position, since you can choose any pick you want if you get there early enough. Picking a number between 1 and 14, the random number generator selected 6, so that's the slot I went with.
Round 1 (6th overall): Matthew Tkachuk – I thought this was an easy pick at #5 with scoring and peripherals, since I'd picked Tkachuk fourth overall in another mock draft. Now that he's been cleared for the start of training camp, he should be a top-5 pick in drafts.
Round 2 (23rd overall): Ilya Sorokin – Call the second round the goalie round with Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, Alexandar Georgiev, Sorokin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Linus Ullmark all being selected in this round (in that order). Not exactly Zero G? I thought this was the right spot to draft Sorokin in anyway, but I'll have to see if I revert to Zero G when my real-life draft comes up (which, by the way, is also 14 teams). As a reader pointed out to me, there's a massive tier break in forwards once Mitch Marner, Alex Ovechkin, and Sidney Crosby are picked, so picking a goalie might not be the worst thing.
Round 3 (34th overall): Steven Stamkos – The Bolts captain made the most sense here. He may receive wing eligibility as well if he's on a line with Brayden Point. As well, he is listed as both a C and LW on Fantrax.
Round 4 (51st overall): Kyle Connor – I was originally going to draft Erik Karlsson, but then noticed Connor was still available, even though I didn't think he'd be. Connor is a back-to-back 80+ point player who sometimes flies under the radar. Karlsson was picked right after.
Round 5 (62nd overall): Alex DeBrincat – I was also surprised that the Cat was still available here. DeBrincat turned out to be an important pick because I hadn't drafted a right wing yet and only drafted one other RW.
I know I need defensemen, though, and they'll be a priority for the next round. That being said, I’ve noticed that Yahoo has only five defensemen with an ADP above 50, so elite defensemen don’t grow on trees. In my experience, a d-man drafted early better be elite – just like a goalie.
Round 6 (79th overall): Brandon Montour – I actually meant to click on Darnell Nurse here because of Montour's uncertain injury status. However, this is a great spot for Montour if he doesn't end up missing much time (ie. one month or less).
Round 7 (90th overall): Darnell Nurse – If you can wait one round to pick a certain player, I say pick them then. So it made sense to wait on Nurse, a shots and hits machine who deserves a Yahoo ADP higher than 106.
Round 8 (107th overall): Travis Konecny – He's the other right wing that I drafted. As well, his ranking has increased in the Top 100 Roto Rankings this month. In case you didn't notice, Konecny was a point-per-game player last season, albeit not in a full season (61 points in 60 games).
Round 9 (118th overall): Pierre-Luc Dubois – Also highly ranked in the updated Roto Rankings. As well, there are a number of defensemen that I'll target for the next round.
Round 10 (135th overall): Kris Letang – This is a lower-risk spot to draft him in. Even with age and Karlsson's presence, Letang could become a draft-day bargain if he can stick on the first-unit power play.
Round 11 (146th overall): Shea Theodore – Theodore is clearly not getting enough respect in fantasy drafts with an ADP right around where I drafted him. He should (might) be on the first power-play unit on the defending Stanley Cup champions. This is another example of a player's rank dropping because he missed significant time due to injury. Also, this might be the year to wait a while to draft defensemen.
Round 12 (163rd overall): Philipp Grubauer – The next task was to search for another goalie that could be a Zero G target. A few options were there, including Ville Husso, Logan Thompson, and Grubauer. I went with Grubauer, who should start plenty of games. He seems to have shaken off his rough start with Seattle, who should push for a playoff spot again.
Round 13 (174th overall): Pavel Buchnevich – He's an underrated fantasy option that I couldn't believe was available in this spot. Perhaps this is because teams have been filling other positions. Receiving RW eligibility on Yahoo like he has on Fantrax would be huge for this team. Buchnevich also has a misleading ranking and ADP because he missed games last season. However, beware of shooting percentage regression.
Round 14 (191st overall): Nick Suzuki – I was targeting both Vincent Trocheck and Anze Kopitar, but both were picked a few spots before this pick. Regardless, Suzuki seems like a decent consolation prize who could actually outscore them both.
Round 15 (202nd overall): Sam Bennett – He's a multicategory wonder for hits and shots. Unfortunately, I have too many centers and left wingers and need RW, D or G. Thankfully this is a mock draft. My mistakes won't come back to haunt me all season… but if I type something on the internet, then it lives forever?
Round 16 (219th overall): Damon Severson – A team is more likely to need d-men, so I went with the guy who Columbus signed to a lucrative deal after trading for his negotiation rights. I don't think Severson explodes fantasy-wise on the Jackets, but this is a late-round pick and I wasn't enamored with the remaining available blueliners. Plus the lower the pick, the more likely I am to drop them if a tempting waiver-wire option comes along. I often use this spot to target a rookie or sleeper that I'm hoping could make a splash, but the limited time given didn't allow me to find that player.
–