Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Matthew Tkachuk is expected to be ready for the start of training camp. You may remember that Tkachuk missed the final game of the Stanley Cup Final with a broken sternum, which is an injury that can take months to heal and where pain can linger. Tkachuk has recorded 100 points in back-to-back seasons, and only McDavid and Draisaitl have more points over the last two seasons. He’s a top-5 pick in single-season drafts. With that recent point production, you could even make the argument that he could go as high as #3 behind the two Oilers. (sept15)

2. The injury news might not be so positive for Torey Krug, however. Krug is dealing with an injured foot from training and will be re-evaluated on October 1. He may not necessarily miss time, since the season starts about a week and a half after that. However, he will at the very least need more time to get up to speed.

A Krug injury might help Scott Perunovich, particularly when it comes to power-play time. However, Perunovich has experienced injury issues of his own, having been held to just 22 AHL games and no NHL games last season due to shoulder surgery. The Blues reportedly tried to trade Krug during the summer, so they may still be ready to move on from Krug anyway if they can figure out a way for a team to take on part or all of his $6.5 million cap hit for four more seasons. Also keep an eye on how this situation could help Justin Faulk, although he’s not as productive on the power play as Krug is. (sept15)

3. A signing that flew under the radar but may have fantasy implications is the Devils signing Keith Kinkaid to a one-year, two-way contract. It seems like the door is open for Kinkaid to make the Devils this season as a seldom-used backup to Vitek Vanecek, with Kinkaid possibly playing on the now-unaffiliated Chicago Wolves if he plays in the AHL. The Devils fans that I know have told me they thought that they would try to trade for a veteran goalie. At first, that would be a goalie on the block like Connor Hellebuyck, but now it’s a possible backup so that Akira Schmid could get playing time, even if it’s in the AHL.

With expectations being higher for the Devils this season, I’d expect Vanecek to be on a short leash. Schmid is still a sleeper to me, which I explained earlier. Kinkaid has played only three NHL games total over the past two seasons – all with three separate teams. That’s why I still think Schmid has a better than 50/50 chance of making the Devils, but like a lot of things it’s not 100%. (sept15)

4. According to Frank Seravalli, the Avalanche are researching available goalie options because Pavel Francouz may not be ready to start the season. I’m surprised Francouz isn’t a Band-Aid Boy, given the fact that he played just 16 games last season and has missed time due to injuries previously. Alexandar Georgiev should receive enough starts and wins to be worth consideration of drafting as a top-5 goalie, since he likely won’t have significant competition for the starter’s job. 23-year-old Justus Annunen is currently the third goalie on the Avalanche depth chart. (sept15)

5. We (and by we, I mean me) discuss plenty of single-season scenarios through mock drafts. However, there are a considerable number of questions that inquire about which player or players to retain in a limited keeper format. With that in mind, I’ll take you through my decision-making process for this if you follow the link… (sept15)

6. In Tuesday’s Ramblings, we started looking at my point projections for defensemen. The focus was on groups of players, such as those leading our projections, blue liners with serious competition for top offensive time, younger stars, and others. Go read that for a review of a dozen-or-so blue liners that are comparable in some way.

Today’s (Thursday) focus will be on individual defensemen. They will be selected because the projection gives us a big improvement/decline from recent seasons, is out of line with what I had envisioned from the outset, or for any other interesting reason. As usual, we have four caveats:

1. These are the first run of projections, so there will be changes – some significant – between now and the start of the regular season.
2. First-year players have not been included yet.
3. We are not separating by position, so they’re all defensemen and not LD/RD.
4. All starting players are projected for 82 games played.

Below are a few looks at Thursday's Ramblings:

7. Evan Bouchard
Projection: 57.06

Seeing Edmonton’s young blue liner projected for roughly 57 points was both surprising and not. His career-high is 40 points, so this would represent a sizable improvement, but he will be the top PP quarterback out of training camp and likely around 21 minutes a night. Looking into the projection, the issue is that it’s giving him 80% of the top PP time, and not 95% like he finished last season with. If it does end up being closer to a 95% top PP share, his projection is likely close to 65 points. The Dobber Guide – available for purchase here! – has him at 64 points, so that seems a better bet than 57.

One thing to note about Bouchard is his blocked shots. My peripheral projections will come in the next couple weeks, but just glancing at his stats will show a big decline in blocked shots as compared to 2021-22. Overall, Bouchard’s shots blocked per minute declined 27% from the year prior, and at a time when blocked shot rates are rising, any further decline will really hurt his multi-cat value. (sept14)

8. Noah Dobson
Projection: 51.21

So, this is a little worrisome. In the section on Bouchard, it was mentioned that Bouchard had seen a sizable blocked shots decline in 2022-23. Curious enough, Noah Dobson also saw a 27% decline in shots blocked per minute when compared to 2021-22, and a 17% decline in hits per minute. A guy that once seemed destined to get to the 300 hits+blocks plateau in a single season paced for just 172 hits+blocks/82 games last season. 

That drop in peripherals is brought up because Dobson’s point projection is right in line with his last two seasons. If he keeps producing the same rate of points, but his peripherals keep dropping, it’s just bad news. He lost over a minute of ice time per game last season and if he can’t get back to the 21- to 22-minute range – at least – he may not be the multi-cat monster-in-the-making he looked to be a year ago. It will be interesting to follow how the Islanders use their defensemen this season. (sept14)

9. Sean Durzi
Projection: 34.55

It is time to talk about the Coyotes. As I’ve mentioned frequently when talking about forward projections, the Coyotes power play has not been a haven for points for quite some time. The hope is that Durzi and Juuso Välimäki replacing Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun – two guys that love to shoot – can help with efficiency, but that’s a hope and not a promise. Then there is the issue with what the PP units look like – 3F/2D or 4F/1D – and Durzi/Jusso Välimäki spelling each other off on the top unit throughout the season. For all these reasons, Durzi’s projection for PP points is just shy of 11, or roughly what JJ Moser did last season. Durzi also won’t get heavy even-strength minutes, and Arizona is not yet a top-end offensive team at even strength, so his projection there is basically in line with what he did in 2022-23. Put it all together and it’s a 35-point season.

Looking at different projections, the Dobber Guide has him pacing for over 51 points in 82 games, Evolving Hockey has him over 41 points, and ESPN has him for over 25. Four different projections, none closer than six points apart, and spread between 25-52 points. Honestly, that range of outcomes feels appropriate. His ADP seems to fall between the 50^th and 60^th defenseman off the board, so at least the price is right for that gamble. (sept14)

10. Juuso Välimäki
Projection: 32.40

Now, to the other notable Arizona blue liner and a projection that isn’t that far off from Durzi’s.

Using the same four projection sources as Durzi, the spread is tighter: a high of 46.5 points/82 games in the Dobber Guide and a low of what I have for him. Four projections within 14 points gives us half the spread of his teammate so maybe he’s a safer fantasy bet? That feels both true and misleading at the same time.

Anyway, the issue with Välimäki is the same as his partner: the power play. A non-elite power play with a rotation on the blue line and differing setups does not portend high-end power-play production. If there is any sort of clarity on the power play roles in training camp, the projections for these two players could change a lot. Again, the price to buy in drafts is relatively cheap so it’s probably worth the risk, especially Durzi with his peripheral upside. (sept14)

11. Here is an excerpt from Tuesday's Ramblings:

The 80-Plus Group

Cale Makar: 89.96 (points)
Erik Karlsson: 87.79
Roman Josi: 83.75
Adam Fox: 82.76

Let’s start at the tippy-top with the defensemen carrying the four highest projections. Three of these four players have all had at least one season of 80-plus points, with Adam Fox being the exception and he’s averaged 75 points/82 games over the last two years. If we projected Roman Josi to play 72 games and Erik Karlsson to play 68, things would change a lot, but as we mentioned earlier, everyone is projected to play 82. Let’s briefly go over each of them.

We only need to look at what Cale Makar has done recently – averaging 91 points/82 games over the last two seasons – to understand why he’s at the top of the list. He doesn’t even need a full season to lead defensemen in points, but imagine if Colorado is firing on all cylinders and he plays 80 games? It is a wonder if they don’t throttle his minutes back a bit, but he should be the first defenseman off the board in any non-cap format.

Erik Karlsson putting up 87 points would be a big step back from a year ago, but it would still be an elite total across the league. There is more discussion including Karlsson a bit further down this list.

What is projected for Roman Josi is partly a product of his 2021-22 season when he posted 96 points. Last season, he had 0.88 points/game, and that number was 0.69 points/game in the Bubble season. It looks like Nashville is starting to turn the keys over to the next generation and that makes his upside very tenuous. He will have to do a lot of heavy lifting to get over 80 points and I think this projection is too high.

Adam Fox is the interesting player in this group. He has never hit 80 points, but he clearly has the talent, the role, and the supporting cast to get there. When I looked into his projection a bit more, it seems a big reason for this is that the assumption is all of Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, and Alexis Lafrenière take steps forward in even-strength production, and that will filter down to Fox. If that doesn’t happen, then 70-75 points seems likely once again, so the Kid Line has a lot riding on it this season in more ways than one. (sept12)

12. All of the rookie of the year hype is (rightfully) centered around Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, and Logan Cooley. I would like to put forward that Matthew Knies should get some love as well. He may not win, but is a very fair bet to finish in the top five. He has the look and feel of a very dominant player, and with the linemates he is set to play alongside, the points will certainly come as well. (sept13)

13. Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour could be returning anytime between Halloween and Christmas. That’s a wide range, but it means we should get at least a month without either of them. That’s enough time for someone else to settle in on the top power play unit, and ride it all season long – just like Montour did last season.

Gustav Forsling is the best bet, and put up a career-high 41 points last season. However, despite seeing a minute and a half of power play ice time per game, he only notched a total of five power play points. The majority of his scoring came at even strength, where he was used as an all-around first-pairing defender.

With that in mind, we turn to another option with the Panthers who will be easier to shelter, and who has some streaky power play success in the past. Yesterday’s Gordle answer Mike Reilly may look like the fourth lefty on the depth chart right now, and thus an odd-man out, he might actually be a lock for an opening-day roster spot due to the absence of reliable fill-ins on the right side. (sept13)

14. Maybe ruining what would be my breakout pick for Seattle this year (the rest are coming next week), but Eeli Tolvanen is someone that I wanted to mention. He’s a scorer that is approaching his breakout threshold, and there was all of Daniel Sprong’s sheltered offensive zone and power play time that just got freed up on the right wing. For an over/under set at pacing for 57.5 points for the 24-year-old, I think I would be taking the over. (sept13)

15. Does Tomas Tatar signing in Colorado likely hurt Jonathan Drouin’s chances? Personally, I don’t think it has a huge impact. Drouin was always going to get an easy shot in the top-six, and he will either stick or he won’t. If he doesn’t, then it’s down to the bottom-six with second-unit power play time for the rest of the year. Tatar becomes one of the names that can fill in for him in the top-six, but initially Tatar makes for a great third line addition alongside Miles Wood and Ross Colton.

It is a good landing spot for Tatar, as the exposure up the lineup would be a boon for him, but being able to not be the focal point also seems to serve him well in the regular season. He’ll be a bargain in cap leagues this year at the $1.5 million price tag. (sept13)

You can find Cliffy’s take on it here.

16. My Top 50 Calder picks just went into the Fantasy Guide and I thought I’d dig in a little bit on a few of them. Obviously, unless every single hockey expert and fan is extremely wrong, this award is already being handed to Connor Bedard – and only an injury will stop him. So really this is just Bedard plus 49 other promising rookies who will compete from one of the other two nomination slots.

Leo Carlsson, Anaheim. I am leaning towards him not making the team because…why rush him? They can bring him in a year from now when they are better equipped to challenge for a playoff spot. Plus, they can push his ELC back a year. Lots of benefits to holding him off for a year and letting him play in the SHL. But if he’s absolutely lights-out in camp, then it might force the matter. Carlsson making this team would have a domino effect on players like Alex Killorn, Mason McTavish, Adam Henrique (probably in a bad way with Henrique), Cam Fowler, Jamie Drysdale, Ryan Strome (likely in a bad way for him too). It would also likely bump Carlsson a few slots higher on this list. (sept11)

17. Joseph Woll, Toronto. This could be a sneaky pick, or it may end up being nothing at all. Woll is going to be Toronto’s backup goalie. But Ilya Samsonov gets injured a lot. Each time Samsonov gets sidelined is an opportunity for Woll to sneak some easy wins behind a top five roster. The more time Samsonov misses, the higher in rookie voting Woll will go. (sept11)

18. Kevin Korchinski, Chicago. This one was tough because it’s a Catch-22. He could make the team and then seriously flourish thanks to Bedard, who will win the Calder. But if Bedard gets hurt…then Korchinski won’t flourish because there’s no Bedard. Either way – no Calder. But I couldn’t leave him off the list, as he is potentially a top rookie. (sept11)

19. Jiri Kulich, Buffalo. The 28^th overall pick last year was thrown straight into North American pro hockey as an 18-year-old, which is not an overly common though it happens from time to time. But he flourished! His 24 goals (in 62 AHL games) led Rochester. On many NHL teams, he’s pushing for a roster spot. But on Buffalo? Even with Jack Quinn sidelined, they have seven other young, high-upside forwards fighting for top-six ice time. And that’s not even factoring in Jordan Greenway, who I think team brass really wants to push hard to succeed, nor Victor Olofsson. He’ll be up and down (NHL-AHL) all season long, I suspect. (sept11)

20. Ruslan Iskhakov, NY Islanders. A future Dobber Darling? Perhaps. He’s 5-9 with loads of skill and he made a huge splash in his AHL debut with 51 points in 69 games. Right now I don’t have him making the team, but at this point on my list (high 40s) is when I take my longshots and throw out some hunches. As the current Islanders’ roster looks, I see Julien Gauthier and Simon Holmstrom as easy pickings for a hotshot rookie to steal their job. I also see Oliver Wahlstrom as quite injury prone. And don’t get me started on Ross Johnston, who to this day I’m convinced has compromising photos of somebody in order to even have an NHL job. (sept11)

21. In case you missed it, we’ve made some major changes to the Top 100 Roto Rankings for September. If you’re participating in any multicategory league drafts soon, I encourage you to have a look.

As I’ve always said, feel free to leave feedback. In making these changes, I’m hoping that we are being more amenable to what the regular readers and visitors are looking for. The blocked shots category is being used in more and more leagues and allows for a broader player pool, so it was a change that I had in mind for a while. Dropping plus/minus was a tough choice since it is still very widely used (at least in my experience), but there are too many negative opinions about its validity nowadays when you compare it to advanced stats. Say what you want about penalty minutes, but it’s a necessary stat in bangers leagues.

I should also give a shout out to the fine work that Hockey Bangers is doing. If you’re on Twitter, you should definitely be following them. In the Roto Rankings, there is a link to their full worksheet, which includes category projections that create a bangers score for each player that go above and beyond to include a top 300. In other words, you get to see how the machine is built along with rankings above and beyond what we previously had in the Roto Rankings. (sept16)

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* More hockey reading for you? The last of our Offseason Fantasy Grades team articles was published this past week. You will be able to find the links to all of them here.

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Have a good week, folks!

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