Ramblings: Who Do You Draft – “This Guy, or That Guy?” Taking Your Questions … (Sep 18)

Dobber

2023-09-18

The 18th annual Fantasy Guide is available for immediate download in the shop. Last week I updated this Guide for Tomas Tatar in Colorado, four or five injury notes and adjustments, as well as the latest tryouts. Business is about to pick up in the NHL – and those updates will come flying at you often.

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And get ready for the new Dobbernomics app, which is coming very soon. Hoping within a week…

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https://twitter.com/RyeseRichards/status/1703570218029822379

Give me Miller here. He'll get more than 80 points (I project 85), decent PIM (over 50), solid Hits (185). Meier is more of a 70-point guy, with a bit of upside for more. His PIM is probably going to be slightly below Miller and his Hits will be lower as well.  Push comes to shove, I can see him only topping Miller in goals and even that will be close (I have it 35-32).

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Good one! Because on the surface, my instinct was Dobson – a player on the rise versus a player on the decline. But digging deeper, the points projections for both of these players are close. As are the SOG and PPPts projections. Dobson, to be honest, wins or ties all of those categories…but it's close. However, he is nowhere near Letang in Hits. Letang will help so much in the Hits category, at minimal loss in the other categories, that he gets my nod. The risk is in him playing at least 70 games. That's key here or this could blow up in my face. He missed 18 games last year but has missed just 23 games over the last three seasons combined – that averages just under eight games missed, or a projection of him playing 74 games.

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This one is so close that it's not worth agonizing over in that league format. I ran your categories on Fantasy Hockey Geek along with my projections. The result spit out Pastrnak at sixth spot… and MacKinnon at eight. MacKinnon is the greater injury risk, which makes the Pastrnak call a little easier to make.

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Skinner. I think he gets back to at least 70 points, even though a decline is likely. Kuzmenko will also decline, likely falling short of Skinner's production by about 10 points. He won't have as many SOG, and neither player really throws a check or blocks a shot. So for them it will come down to the points, and Skinner gets the nod.

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Robertson. I think Kucherov will end up with about five more points than Robertson, but he won't score as many goals, take as many shots and his plus/minus won't be anywhere close. Your follow-up tweet didn't indicate a plus/minus category, but SOG and goals were categories so I would stick with Robertson. Only take Kucherov here in a points-only league.

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I think Bratt will come close to 80 points this season, and I don't think Tuch plays 70 games. I don't see Laine playing 65 games. On a per-game level, all three of them will be pretty close, so for this I would lean toward the guy with a healthier track record.

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For this one I have Kane about equal to Nurse, with Trocheck tailing a little ways behind. I generally prefer to fill a D slot over a wing slot, so I would lean Nurse here. Nurse will obviously give more BLKS but fewer Hits. Nurse's low-40s for points as a defenseman will be more important than Kane's low 50s in points as a forward.

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This is a close call, as I have both players in that 72- or 73-point range. The other categories are close as well, though I think Konecny will take more shots and maybe 50% more Hits. So go with Konecny.

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If you league counts SOG then I would lean Lafreniere here. But otherwise, yes, Byfield. Kakko will beat him this year for points, but in the long run with bangers categories, Byfield is your guy

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Toffoli will beat Hagel in all three of these categories.

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Go Josh Morrissey here. He'll decline, but I still think he gets to 70 points. And he beats Hamilton in Hits and BLKS too.

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I think Sharangovich is a safer pick, but I would take Tolvanen for the upside and hope.

Mittelstadt easily, if he can stay healthy – which he did last year.

Luostarinen here, as Sprong's boom-or-bust risk is a little much and Luostarinen I think will be a steady guy.

If he makes the team and plays all year, Dorofeyev will be pretty good. Eyssimont is safer but has little upside.

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I have Staal getting over 750 faceoff wins, while Coyle settles in at around 500. But Coyle will get you a lot more points and SOG. Staal also offers better Hits, but overall I would say take Coyle.

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In such a small keeper league, only keeping six players, you don't want to use up a spot like that for two years on Michkov. You have to take Fantilli or Cooley, and there's no wrong answer. Myself, I would prefer Cooley.

Keller all the way. He's still on the rise, and will pay immediate dividends as opposed to waiting on Fantilli to get going.

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Much as I like Petterson, we're talking about Draisaitl here. I mean…Draisaitl! He just about reached 130 points! Petterson will never do that.

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I like DeBrincat, both in terms of my projections (77 points to 71) as well as upside.

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Thomas will get more points this season and probably has higher upside in the long term. If your league is points-only, then Thomas is the better choice.

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Krebs is a better player for points-only leagues. This is only a discussion in banger leagues, but even then I just like Krebs' upside too much to pass on him.

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I take Marchand here, even though his production is going to dip. The PIM and Hits will still be tops among these three, and he'll be close enough in points (or even lead the three) to make points a non-issue.

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I have Verhaeghe with a tiny edge over Toffoli in PPPts (by one) and a bigger edge in goals (by six) and points (three).

I have a lot of faith in a Calgary rebound. Couple that with Benn coming back down to earth a bit, and you have to go with Lindholm.

As for Mats Zuccarello vs. Sam Reinhart – Reinhart is likely going to play the full season, whereas Zuke gets hurt a lot. Reinhart will have a lot more goals and similar end result in terms of points. PPPts will also be similar. Fairly close, but Reinhart is the safer pick – if Zuke stays healthy then he'll win. But that's a big "if".

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See you next Monday.

One Comment

  1. isle b. 2023-09-18 at 02:27

    I don’t know, I think I would go with the 23 year-old dman with upside over the 36 year old dman who suffered a stroke 9 months ago.

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