Scoring 50 goals is a tough benchmark to hit, but we’ve been seeing it more in the past couple of years. 

The last two seasons have seen nine 50-goal seasons, with Leon Draisaitl as the only player to hit the mark twice. The last time we had this many 50-goal scorers within a two-season timeframe was 1995-96 and 1996-97.

Last year, five players hit the 50-goal benchmark. Aside from Draisaitl, the other four (Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen and Brayden Point) all potted 50 goals for the first time. 

With goal-scoring up around the league, we may see another couple of 50-goal first-timers this season. The question is, who has the best chance to accomplish that feat? There are plenty of candidates, more than I originally thought when I started thinking of this topic. Some of the players who didn’t make it that have a shot include:

• William Nylander, if he is one of those players who excels when playing for a new contract
• Patrik Laine, potentially in line for a bounce-back year for a new coach
• Elias Pettersson, if he decides to take an extra shot per game
• Roope Hintz, if he continues to improve and takes that next step
• Jared McCann, if he can be that complete shocker 50-goal guy, similar to Chris Kreider two years ago

To figure out who has a chance to reach 50 goals, there are a couple of statistics we need to examine. You need a player who can average at least four shots per game with a shooting percentage of 15 percent. Those are lofty numbers, and if a player sees action in all 82 games and hits those marks, that’s just shy at 49 goals. Any decrease in any of those three categories (games, shots-per-game and shooting percentage) means a player needs to see a significant uptick in the other categories. 

Having a 50-goal scorer or two on your squad will go a long way to helping you win the goals category in a roto league or in a head-to-head matchup.

Below are 10 players who have a chance to hit 50 goals for the first time this season. Be warned, I am not saying they will all do it. Most of them will fail. There have been 23 50-goal seasons by active players. Alexander Ovechkin has nine of those. As great as Steven Stamkos was as a goal-scorer, he has two. Sidney Crosby has one. If we’re lucky, we’ll see a couple of new players added to that list this year. 

10. Adrian Kempe

Kempe is the biggest long-shot on this list, but he had a great season last year, concluding with 41 goals in 82 games. He finished with a career-high shooting percentage of 16.4 percent, while also averaging three shots per game. He’s had great chemistry with Anze Kopitar and is on the top power-play unit. That last part is key. Last year, seven players had at least 18 power-play goals. Four of them hit the 50-goal mark (the only exception was Rantanen, who was the first player in more than a decade to reach 50 goals without getting at least 16 power-play tallies). If you want to push for 50, you need that power-play production.

9. Cole Caufield

It may appear strange to have Caufield on this list, considering we are still waiting on his first 30-goal season. However, he’s a high-volume shooter, has a high shooting percentage, and is guaranteed to be on the top line and the top power play. A 50-goal pace over 82 games equates to 0.61 goals per game. Last year, Caufield had 0.57 goals per game, a 47-goal pace. A full 82 games, and either a small increase in shots per game or shooting percentage will put him at 50 goals. 

8. Kyle Connor

By his standards, Connor had a poor season last year, finishing with 32 goals. His 0.39 goals per game was the lowest of his career, and his shooting percentage had dropped to 11.7 percent, whereas his previous low was 14.8 percent. Don't forget he has flirted with 50 goals before. Two seasons ago, he potted 47 goals in 79 games. Losing Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois will hurt the team overall, but it could mean that the team will choose to overload the top line and top power-play unit, and be forced to lean more on Connor than in previous years. 

7. Alex DeBrincat

In the 56-game covid season, DeBrincat hit the .62 goals per game mark, but didn’t hit 50 goals due to a lack of games. Aside from that year, he hit the 41-goal mark twice. Last year, it didn’t work out in Ottawa for DeBrincat as there were plenty of other options for goal-scoring. Now in Detroit, DeBrincat will be the main guy Detroit will lean on to score goals. Dylan Larkin had 32 goals last year to lead Detroit. Two other players had 20 goals, but one is now in Ottawa, and the other is 35-year-old David Perron. DeBrincat should be seeing an extra two minutes per night in Detroit, and if he has chemistry with anyone with the Red Wings, there should be an uptick in goals.

6. Jack Hughes

Last year, Hughes entered the echelon of elite fantasy players. This year, he could enter the stratosphere of top goal scorers. Last year, he netted 43 goals in 78 games, thanks to 4.3 shots per game. That was up almost a shot per game from the previous year, which was necessary as his shooting percentage dropped from 15.8 percent to 12.8 percent. The Devils are a young talented team, which can help Hughes reach that 50-goal mark.

5. Jason Robertson

Robertson started his NHL career as a great player, and he’s gotten better each season. Last year, he notched 46 goals in 82 games. His shooting percentage has always finished in the teens (his career average is 15.7 percent), and his shots per game pace has steadily increased, up to 3.8 last year. What’s most interesting about last season is Robertson started hot (23 goals in his first 25 games) before hitting a wall (one goal in his next dozen games). He finished with 22 goals in his final 45 games. At this rate, all he needs is a little more consistency to reach 50 goals. 

4. Matthew Tkachuk

Back-to-back 40-goal seasons have put Tkachuk on the radar as a potential 50-goal scorer. In his first season with Florida, he averaged an extra shot per game compared to his final year with the Flames, from 3.1 to 4.1. However, his shooting percentage tumbled from 16.6 percent to 12.3 percent. If you expect Tkachuk’s shooting percentage to increase while maintaining his shot rate, then he has a potential shot at 50. 

3. Tage Thompson 

Thompson probably would have reached 50 goals last year if he hadn’t missed four games. He finished with 47 goals in 78 games, and is bound to be a popular pick for a potential 50-goal season. Last year, his shooting percentage went up only 0.8 percent from the previous season (to 15.8 percent), and his shots per game went up from 3.2 to 3.8. That was enough for him to see an increase in goals from 38 to 47. All he needs is another small increase in either of those two categories. 

2. Kirill Kaprizov

The Wild forward is right on the cusp of the 50-goal plateau. Two years ago, he had 47 goals in 81 games, a 0.58 goals-per-game pace. Last year, he had 40 in 67, or 0.68 goals per game. He continuously scores on a high percentage of his shots (last year’s 15.3 percent was the lowest of his three-year NHL career). The only downside to Kaprizov is that he doesn’t play with great linemates. His most frequent linemates last season were Mats Zuccarello, Sam Steel, Ryan Hartman and Frederick Gaudreau. This puts all the focus of a team’s defense on Kaprizov. If he can get some better linemates that will take some of the attention away from him, it might help boost his numbers. 

1. Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon has not yet hit that 0.61 goals-per-game mark, but he was close last season at .59. He may have hit 50 goals if he had stayed healthy, but he missed 11 games due to injury. Unfortunately, that’s a recurring characteristic of MacKinnon’s career, as he’s missed at least eight games in each of the past four seasons. One reason to like MacKinnon reaching 50 goals is the number of shots he takes. Last year, he averaged 5.15 shots per game, which not only led the league, it was the highest in a season since 2008-09. A small uptick in shooting percentage and a full healthy season would go a long way to getting him to 50 goals for the first time.