Ramblings: Training Camp Notes; Projecting Multi-Cat Performers Like Nichushkin, Tippett, Sergachev, and More – September 28
Michael Clifford
2023-09-28
Another day, another slew of training camp notes.
Before we get to them, be sure to get your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide if you haven't already! There are projections, depth charts, prospect upside, and a slew of articles to help gain an edge in your fantasy league(s). It is updated throughout training camp so the information is always current. Help support what we do by purchasing a guide today.
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Anyway, to the training camp notes:
- I have a bit on Valeri Nichushkin later in this piece and that's why Colorado's power play work on Wednesday makes me nervous. I assumed Nichushkin would be the fourth forward on the top PP unit, but Artturi Lehkonen was there during a full practice yesterday with Nichushkin on the second PP unit. That is a big concern because there's a sizable gap in how the two units are used and it's something that could cost the Russian winger ~15 power play points over a full season. It is, as the kids say, not great. Devon Toews also took Cale Makar's spot for the practice, and not Bowen Byram, so that helps establish the pecking order on the blueline.
- Eetu Luostarainen and Anton Lundell were taking turns practicing PP1 for Florida with Aleksander Barkov having the day off. What is more notable is that Evan Rodrigues was on the top PP unit with Lundell and Carter Verhaeghe on PP2. Rodrigues had been skating with Barkov at even strength as well, so it's something to keep an eye on. Oliver Ekman-Larsson was running the top power play rather than Gustav Forsling.
- Pittsburgh was using both Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang for their power play work. Bryan Rust owners should be nervous.
- Montreal coach Martin St. Louis said they'd like to keep Kirby Dach as a centre, so that would leave a top-line wing spot open for the taking. Sean Monahan got a crack there in Wednesday night's exhibition game.
- Columbus is mixing around their centres, which could be problematic once the season starts.
- Washington had their veterans running the top PP unit in practice, including Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov. We will see how long it lasts. The Caps also had Ivan Miroshnichenko on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom.
- In what looked like a mostly full Seattle practice, Tye Kartye was on the fourth line while Kailer Yamamoto was on the fifth. It seems as if Kartye may have played his way ahead of Yamamoto already.
- St. Louis has had a few injuries to deal with, notably from Justin Faulk and Jordan Kyrou, but coach Craig Berube said they "should be fine" so it doesn't seem as if there's anything that should alter fantasy drafts.
- Roope Hintz was held out of practice and the team said they're being cautious but this is always something to keep an eye on.
- It doesn't look like Nikolaj Ehlers will be playing in exhibition this week as he deals with his neck spasms.
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An unfortunate injury update on Calgary winger Jakob Pelletier:
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The Islanders say Kyle Palmieri is day to day and that might give Oliver Wahlstrom a chance to work his way to the second line, if temporarily. We will have to wait and see how long, if long at all, Palmieri is out.
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It took some time but my multi-cat projections, for both forwards and defencemen, are ready. There will be changes made as updates are made in the next couple weeks, and rookies still need to be included, but it's a pretty good outline of what to expect for this season.
Let's take the Ramblings today to discuss some multi-cat players that stood out to me while perusing these projections. Data for the projections came mostly from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and AllThreeZones.
A reminder: all players are projected for 82 games.
The 200-Shot/100-Hit Forward Club
There are 24 forwards projected for at least 200 shots and 100 hits. Most of the names are the ones we consider when looking at multi-cat options like Brady Tkachuk, Alex Ovechkin, JT Miller, and Timo Meier. Two names, however, are sticking out to me for different reasons.
The first is Valeri Nichushkin. Following his rather expedient exit from the 2023 postseason, it seems fantasy owners are not very high on him as he's going around the 200th pick on ESPN, the 144th pick on Yahoo, and the 100th pick on Underdog – even the latter seems like okay value. He has averaged 32 goals, 41 assists, 241 shots, and 102 hits every 82 games over his last two seasons. If they throttle back his ice time, the peripherals will suffer, but he should be a fixture of the top PP unit (though I'll be honest and say I don't feel comfortable saying that). Whether he can stay healthy or not is a fair question, but whenever he's on the ice, he's a high-end multi-cat winger.
The next is Owen Tippett. The former Florida Panther had 27 goals, 231 shots, and 125 hits in his first full season with Philadelphia. Adding four minutes a game to his overall profile helped immensely, but his role for 2023-24 is the question here. Cam Atkinson is healthy, Travis Konecny is a star, and Joel Farabee seems to have a top-line role in his possession. It leaves one winger spot in the top-6 and that could easily be Tippett, but he's likely the fourth guy in the pecking order. Any changes are likely to be at his expense, and that is a concern for his fantasy value. It might be a case where the team improving due to a healthy roster may not work out in Tippett's favour. At the same time, he could just force the coaching staff's hand and be a top-6 regular. He is being drafted ahead of Nichushkin by a lot on ESPN and by a little on Yahoo. His draft cost has to factor in here, and it would get me to lean to Nichushkin instead.
The 60-Block/100-Hit Forward Club
For a large portion of the summer, these Ramblings discussed the rise or decline of league-wide levels of peripheral stats last season. One of the big notes was the huge jump in shot blocking, which rose a whopping 8.6% per game from the season before. In an era where hits are falling, blocked shots are going the other direction. In 2021-22, there were just 15 forwards that blocked at least 60 shots; in 2022-23, that number exploded to 33 forwards. A lot of those players are depth guys that rack up the blocks while on the penalty kill, but there are some high-end forwards mixed in like Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson, and Joe Pavelski.
There are a number of forwards that are projected for 60 blocks and 100 hits, many of them not overly relevant outside of very deep formats. One name did stick out to me, though: Rafael Harvey-Pinard.
The focus on Harvey-Pinard may be on him having 14 goals in 34 games in the second half of the season, but he managed 56 blocks and 57 hits in those 34 games. Funny enough, he had a brief stint back in 2021-22 that saw him manage three blocks and 12 hits in four games. Small samples abound, but that is a lot of peripheral production in a short amount of time. It might be why Harvey-Pinard is one of the few forwards projected for at least 80 blocks and 100 hits. He hasn't had a prime offensive role so far in training camp, but things can change quickly and if he can remain in a top-6 wing spot, there could be an excellent multi-cat player here.
Another guy projected for at least 60 blocks and 100 hits is Brett Howden. With Vegas losing Reilly Smith and not having (m)any internal replacements ready, Howden could be set for a full-time role in their bottom six. It isn't as if he has tremendous offensive upside, but 10 goals, 25 points, 60 blocks, and 125 hits are marks that are within reach here. He might be someone to keep in mind after the first few hundred players are off the draft board.
The 200-Shot/100-Hit Defence Club
Like their forward counterparts, there are a number of guys projected for at least 200 shots and 100 hits. Rasmus Dahlin is one of them, but the next three are all from Canadian teams: Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard, and Mike Matheson. I have spent enough time on Matheson this offseason so let's focus on the Edmonton guys.
Bouchard is a fascinating offseason discussion point in the fantasy game. He had monster production when he was moved to the top PP unit on a full-time basis after the Tyson Barrie trade. The 2018 10th overall pick is going inside the top-10 defencemen in drafts I've already done as fantasy owners expect that train to keep rolling – I have recently seen him go as the sixth and seventh defenceman off the board in two different drafts. My big question is about ice time. If he's around 21 minutes a night, he will need elite levels of efficiency to be a top-6 defenceman. Few have been able to reliably accomplish this with Dougie Hamilton being the most notable. If Bouchard is earning 23-24 minutes a night, that equation changes. It doesn't feel like he's being drafted at his ceiling, but he needs way more ice time than 21-22 minutes a night for that ceiling to be realistically attainable, and it's fair to ask whether that'll be the case in 2023-24.
As for Nurse, he has five straight 82-game seasons of at least 300 hits+blocks, three of those years also saw 190 shots on goal, and two of those 190-shot seasons also saw 40 points. The list of defencemen capable of 40-point, 200-shot, 150-block, and 150-hit seasons is extremely short, and Nurse is at the top. Anyone looking for more peripherals at a cheaper price than Dahlin or Bouchard should absolutely be looking his direction.
What Else Can a 60-Point Defenceman Do?
Across-the-board production is coveted in multi-cat formats and a number of defencemen are able to do that. Who, then, can give us a lot of points from the blueline while also providing high levels of peripherals?
The first name to mention is Mikhail Sergachev. This will completely depend on the person doing the drafting because some believe Sergachev is now the guy to run the Tampa Bay power play, some don't, and some are in the middle. I am in the camp that the keys to the power play kingdom have been handed to Sergachev so he's someone projected for over 60 points as well as nearly 300 hits+blocks. It is a level of across-the-board production that few defencemen can approach, especially with the injury to Brandon Montour. The trio to consider is Dahlin, Sergachev, and Josh Morrissey. After those three, there is a large step down to the next tier of high-end peripheral producers. Sergachev is either going to overwhelm or underwhelm drafters this year, there will be no middle-whelming.
The Triple-Triple Club
In a category I just made up, there are a number of blueliners projected for triple-digits in shots, hits, and blocks. Many of the top guys have already been discussed – Sergachev, Dahlin, Morrissey, Matheson – but one name is sticking out to me: Dmitry Orlov.
Orlov has not reached the 100-block mark in some time now, last getting there in the 2018-19 campaign. Injuries have shortened his last two seasons, though, and he averaged 103 blocks/82 games from 2021-2023. He is now on a Carolina roster that will likely keep him off the top PP unit, but Carolina's power play has not been a bastion of production and he did not get much PP1 time in Washington anyway. These projections have him approaching 150 shots, blocking 105, and landing nearly 150 hits in an 82-game season. Combine that with a point projection a shade over 40 points and this is a less-heralded multi-cat option in those formats. A lot of the news on Carolina's blue line revolves around Brent Burns and Tony DeAngelo while the best draft value is probably Orlov. A name for multi-cat drafters to highlight for later in drafts.
Also, a shout out to Justin Faulk. He is also included here and is just someone that seems to get it done in the fantasy game year after year. Always one of the more underappreciated fantasy assets.
Alright, that's it for today. We will talk about this more next week but until then, anyone wanting to discuss individual players can reach me on Twitter at @SlimCliffy, and the same on BlueSky.