Those who recently drafted Andrei Vasilevskiy (not to mention those in keeper leagues) were dealt some unexpected bad luck on Thursday, as he will reportedly miss 8-10 weeks following back surgery. Vasilevskiy was considered a top-5 goalie in many preseason rankings, but obviously that is no longer the case. The 8-10-week timeline means that Vasilevskiy should return around the end of November or early December, which could burn off just over a quarter of the season. It could be worse, but it is far from ideal.

My thinking is that a heavy workload has finally caught up to Vasilevskiy. He's played in at least 60 regular-season games over each of the past two seasons. Over the past four seasons, no goalie has played more combined regular-season and playoff games than the Big Cat. In 2021-22, Vasilevskiy played a combined 86 regular-season and playoff games, which is a feat in an era where load management is receiving more attention. Vasilevskiy is only 29, so this is hardly the end of his career.

Because of the injury to their workhorse goalie, the Lightning have been forced to consider what other goaltending options they have. Unfortunately, their cap situation has prevented them from addressing the problem beyond using bargain-basement backups such as Brian Elliott and Curtis McElhinney in the past. That goalie is now Jonas Johansson, who until recently had not found success at the NHL level.

It's easy to write off Johansson, but the 28-year-old Swede posted solid numbers in 2022-23 (3 GP, 2.10 GAA, .932 SV% at NHL level, 26 GP, 2.33 GAA, .920 SV% at AHL level). Playing in front of a decent team, Johansson might post serviceable numbers, but at the moment he could be ranked among the lower tiers of NHL starting goalies if the Lightning don't add another goalie before the season. Prospect Hugo Alnefelt is probably another year or two away, but he could also challenge for starts if Johansson struggles. So could Matt Tomkins, who played in the Swedish Elite League last season. The Lightning could also wait for a few goalies to be waived, including the following:

If I'm Tampa I wait for waivers. A few goalies would be great gambles:
– Alex Lyon (DET)
– Hunter Shepard (WSH)
– Primeau or Montembault (MTL)
– Stolarz (FLA)
– Rittich (LA) https://t.co/egZ4FIfrDt

— Pat Quinn (not that one) (@FHPQuinn) September 28, 2023

I'll add Spencer Martin to Pat’s list, since he was recently waived by the Canucks. In addition, Martin was in the Lightning organization at one time.

Among goalies rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues, some potential Vasilevskiy fill-ins beyond Johansson (11% rostered and climbing fast) that aren't expected to break your goaltending stats include Philipp Grubauer, Antti Raanta, and Pheonix Copley. If Johansson has already been grabbed, check on the availability of someone like Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Spencer Knight. Most of this group won't earn nearly as many starts as Vasilevskiy would have, but you should target quality over quantity in your goaltenders. Replacing all of Vasilevskiy's potential starts will be nearly impossible, so the focus should turn to ensuring that you meet your minimum goaltender starts.

All in all, the Vasilevskiy injury exposes the Lightning as an organization that has very little goaltending depth beyond their starter.  

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In one of my leagues, there's currently a bidding war for Ty Smith. With the news that the Penguins have placed Smith on waivers, that bidding war might cool off. (My league is a slow auction draft). This is an example of the disconnect between real life and fantasy leagues, where a defenseman that has potential in fantasy leagues can't find a way to stick around on an NHL roster because, well, defensemen have to play defense and not just score.

The fact is that Smith, and not someone like Pierre-Olivier Joseph, might be the odd man out with the addition of Erik Karlsson. Because of his offensive upside, Smith could easily be claimed by another team looking to add to its defense. Because what teams aren't looking for defensemen?

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Back in my earlier days of writing for other fantasy hockey websites, I occasionally wrote a feature called the Fantasy Stockwatch. As you might guess, the objective was pretty simple: which players' stock was rising, and which players' stock was falling. Since we are approaching a post-draft period in many leagues, I thought it would be a good time to introduce something where we check up on the most added and dropped players recently and the reasons for that. Are the most added players worth the hype? Are the most dropped players worth giving up on? I try to investigate.

Rising

John Klingberg

Signed to a one-year "prove it" deal this offseason, Klingberg has been inserted on the first-unit power play in training camp ahead of Morgan Rielly. Obviously this could change during the season or even before camp finishes, but this is promising if you've drafted Klingberg. Even through the disaster of a season he had mostly with Anaheim last season, Klingberg has reached double-digit power-play points in each of his nine NHL seasons.

The Leafs seem to want something different on their power play, as Rielly's PPIPP has dropped from 60-70% earlier in his career to 40-50% the past two seasons. Even through some down seasons, Klingberg has maintained at least a 55% PPIPP, and he tends to shoot more on that power play than Rielly does. Rielly is more of a distributor, so it will be interesting to see if Klingberg can stick here. Klingberg has a Yahoo ADP of 165 and had only been drafted in just over one-quarter of Yahoo leagues, but he's a very hot waiver-wire addition at the moment.  

Zach Werenski

Here's another example of a player whose ranking has fallen because of injuries last season. Werenski played in just 13 games before shoulder surgery ended his season. After that, the Blue Jackets brought in more defensemen than they seemed to need, which included both Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov. So his stock should be down, right? Not necessarily.

Werenski was drafted in only 43% of Yahoo leagues, but he's getting added in a number of leagues because teams are realizing he's still available. Despite all the offseason additions, Werenski is still the blueliner with the highest near-term offensive upside, so he shouldn't lose his power-play time. Werenski has reached the 40-point mark four times in his career, and he should be a strong bet to do so again for a fifth time if he can remain healthy.

Falling

Max Pacioretty

Surprising or not, Pacioretty has been one of the most added players in Yahoo over the past few days. I can understand the appeal of Pacioretty to a degree, as he hovered around the point-per-game mark during his three seasons in Vegas. However, he hasn't begun skating yet after re-injuring his Achilles last season, and as of early September he was not expected to be ready for the start of the season. On top of that, Patches is a Band-Aid Boy Certified having played in just 39 games the season prior and battling his share of injuries before that.

I guess Pacioretty is a possible stash on IR if you're in a position where you've got nothing to lose. If you have multiple IR spots and a player that needs to be moved there, you could then add Pacioretty and move him to the second IR spot, then add a healthy player. IR spots can sometimes be under-utilized in leagues, so the 34-year-old Pacioretty might be worth an add if he still has something left and you're not sacrificing an active roster spot in order to retain him.

Pyotr Kochetkov

On my appearance on the Fantasy Hockey Hacks podcast, Devon brought up the fact that Kochetkov has a higher ADP on Yahoo (123) than Jacob Markstrom (130). Taking another look, Carter Hart, Ville Husso, Adin Hill, Logan Thompson, and others who should be guaranteed an NHL role also have an ADP below Kochetkov as I write this. As I mentioned during the podcast, that might be the autopickers, but it could also be folks who aren't carefully checking through the rankings.

It may not be fair, but the Hurricanes brought back both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for the coming season. Andersen should be the starter, and the brittle Raanta should back up because he can't seem to string together a few games in a row without getting injured. As I mentioned in the fantasy guide, if one of these goalies is injured, Kochetkov is challenging the other for starts. Kochetkov is waivers-exempt, which also explains this situation. Regardless, I'd treat Kochetkov more as a potential waiver-wire pickup as opposed to someone to draft.

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Preseason highlight time. Looks like this Connor Bedard kid could be fun to watch.

Connor Bedard wowing the crowd in just his second NHL preseason shift. #Blackhawks pic.twitter.com/pueOByPIVF

— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) September 29, 2023

Athanasiou gets the winner, assisted sauce from Bedard pic.twitter.com/uSMyyEvJhz

— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) September 29, 2023

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