Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Those who recently drafted Andrei Vasilevskiy (not to mention those in keeper leagues) were dealt some unexpected bad luck on Thursday, as he will reportedly miss 8-10 weeks following back surgery. Vasilevskiy was considered a top-5 goalie in many preseason rankings, but obviously that is no longer the case. The 8-10-week timeline means that Vasilevskiy should return around the end of November or early December, which could burn off just over a quarter of the season. It could be worse, but it is far from ideal.

My thinking is that a heavy workload has finally caught up to Vasilevskiy. He’s played in at least 60 regular-season games over each of the past two seasons. Over the past four seasons, no goalie has played more combined regular-season and playoff games than the Big Cat. In 2021-22, Vasilevskiy played a combined 86 regular-season and playoff games, which is a feat in an era where load management is receiving more attention. Vasilevskiy is only 29, so this is hardly the end of his career. (sept29)

2. Because of the injury to their workhorse goalie, the Lightning have been forced to consider what other goaltending options they have. Unfortunately, their cap situation has prevented them from addressing the problem beyond using bargain-basement backups such as Brian Elliott and Curtis McElhinney in the past. That goalie is now Jonas Johansson, who until recently had not found success at the NHL level.

It’s easy to write off Johansson, but the 28-year-old Swede posted solid numbers in 2022-23 (3 GP, 2.10 GAA, .932 SV% at NHL level, 26 GP, 2.33 GAA, .920 SV% at AHL level). Playing in front of a decent team, Johansson might post serviceable numbers, but at the moment he could be ranked among the lower tiers of NHL starting goalies if the Lightning don’t add another goalie before the season. Prospect Hugo Alnefelt is probably another year or two away, but he could also challenge for starts if Johansson struggles. So could Matt Tomkins, who played in the Swedish Elite League last season.

3. Among goalies rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues (at time of writing), some potential Vasilevskiy fill-ins beyond Johansson (11% rostered and climbing fast) that aren’t expected to break your goaltending stats include Philipp Grubauer, Antti Raanta, and Pheonix Copley. If Johansson has already been grabbed, check on the availability of someone like Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Spencer Knight. Most of this group won’t earn nearly as many starts as Vasilevskiy would have, but you should target quality over quantity in your goaltenders. Replacing all of Vasilevskiy’s potential starts will be nearly impossible, so the focus should turn to ensuring that you meet your minimum goaltender starts.

All in all, the Vasilevskiy injury exposes the Lightning as an organization that has very little goaltending depth beyond their starter. (sept29)

4. One player was claimed off waivers on Friday, and it was not Ty Smith. Spencer Martin was claimed by Columbus after Vancouver waived him. Tampa Bay probably could have used him more than anyone else after the Andrei Vasilevskiy injury, but the Blue Jackets would have had higher waiver priority based on last year’s standings.

Martin is at best an NHL backup goalie, so don’t expect him to seriously challenge Elvis Merzlikins for starts unless the latter struggles mightily again. As for what happens to prospect Daniil Tarasov, he has yet to skate in training camp. Although Tarasov is listed as day-to-day, the Blue Jackets need a goalie with NHL experience in the immediate term, hence the claim for Martin. Aaron Dell is also at Blue Jackets camp on a PTO, but he doesn’t have a contract.

As for Smith, I discussed his situation in yesterday’s Ramblings. Barring an injury on the blueline, he will start the season in the AHL. Although Smith has tremendous offensive upside, he simply isn’t viewed by teams as an NHL-level defenseman right now, even at a very affordable cap hit of $775,000. He’s only rosterable in deep keeper leagues at the moment. (sept30)

5. Back in my earlier days of writing for other fantasy hockey websites, I occasionally wrote a feature called the Fantasy Stockwatch. As you might guess, the objective was pretty simple: which players’ stock was rising, and which players’ stock was falling. Since we are approaching a post-draft period in many leagues, I thought it would be a good time to introduce something where we check up on the most added and dropped players recently and the reasons for that. Are the most added players worth the hype? Are the most dropped players worth giving up on? I try to investigate.

Rising: John Klingberg

Signed to a one-year “prove it” deal this offseason, Klingberg has been inserted on the first-unit power play in training camp ahead of Morgan Rielly. Obviously this could change during the season or even before camp finishes, but this is promising if you’ve drafted Klingberg. Even through the disaster of a season he had mostly with Anaheim last season, Klingberg has reached double-digit power-play points in each of his nine NHL seasons.

The Leafs seem to want something different on their power play, as Rielly’s PPIPP has dropped from 60-70% earlier in his career to 40-50% the past two seasons. Even through some down seasons, Klingberg has maintained at least a 55% PPIPP, and he tends to shoot more on that power play than Rielly does. Rielly is more of a distributor, so it will be interesting to see if Klingberg can stick here. Klingberg has a Yahoo ADP of 165 and had only been drafted in just over one-quarter of Yahoo leagues, but he’s a very hot waiver-wire addition at the moment. (sept29)

6. Falling: Pyotr Kochetkov

On my appearance on the Fantasy Hockey Hacks podcast, Devon brought up the fact that Kochetkov has a higher ADP on Yahoo (123) than Jacob Markstrom (130). Taking another look, Carter Hart, Ville Husso, Adin Hill, Logan Thompson, and others who should be guaranteed an NHL role also have an ADP below Kochetkov as I write this. As I mentioned during the podcast, that might be the autopickers, but it could also be folks who aren’t carefully checking through the rankings.

It may not be fair, but the Hurricanes brought back both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for the coming season. Andersen should be the starter, and the brittle Raanta should back up because he can’t seem to string together a few games in a row without getting injured. As I mentioned in the fantasy guide, if one of these goalies is injured, Kochetkov is challenging the other for starts. Kochetkov is waivers-exempt, which also explains this situation. Regardless, I’d treat Kochetkov more as a potential waiver-wire pickup as opposed to someone to draft. (sept29)

7. It took some time but my multi-cat projections, for both forwards and defencemen, are ready. There will be changes made as updates are made in the next couple weeks, and rookies still need to be included, but it’s a pretty good outline of what to expect for this season.

Let’s take the Ramblings today to discuss some multi-cat players that stood out to me while perusing these projections. Data for the projections came mostly from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and AllThreeZones.

A reminder: all players are projected for 82 games.

The 200-Shot/100-Hit Forward Club

There are 24 forwards projected for at least 200 shots and 100 hits. Most of the names are the ones we consider when looking at multi-cat options like Brady Tkachuk, Alex Ovechkin, JT Miller, and Timo Meier. Two names, however, are sticking out to me for different reasons.

The first is Valeri Nichushkin. Following his rather expedient exit from the 2023 postseason, it seems fantasy owners are not very high on him as he’s going around the 200^th pick on ESPN, the 144^th pick on Yahoo, and the 100^th pick on Underdog – even the latter seems like okay value. He has averaged 32 goals, 41 assists, 241 shots, and 102 hits every 82 games over his last two seasons. If they throttle back his ice time, the peripherals will suffer, but he should be a fixture of the top PP unit (though I’ll be honest and say I don’t feel comfortable saying that). Whether he can stay healthy or not is a fair question, but whenever he’s on the ice, he’s a high-end multi-cat winger. (sept28)

8. The next is Owen Tippett. The former Florida Panther had 27 goals, 231 shots, and 125 hits in his first full season with Philadelphia. Adding four minutes a game to his overall profile helped immensely, but his role for 2023-24 is the question here. Cam Atkinson is healthy, Travis Konecny is a star, and Joel Farabee seems to have a top-line role in his possession. It leaves one winger spot in the top-6 and that could easily be Tippett, but he’s likely the fourth guy in the pecking order. Any changes are likely to be at his expense, and that is a concern for his fantasy value. It might be a case where the team improving due to a healthy roster may not work out in Tippett’s favour. At the same time, he could just force the coaching staff’s hand and be a top-6 regular. He is being drafted ahead of Nichushkin by a lot on ESPN and by a little on Yahoo. His draft cost has to factor in here, and it would get me to lean to Nichushkin instead. (sept28)

(Follow the link for more multi-cat breakdowns…)

9. Last year I ran a pre-season Ramblings where I went through the top-100 players by their ADP at the time. We’re just getting into the start of training camp, and while there is some interesting injury news, the production and lineup sorting is nothing that we should be jumping to conclusions on yet.

This time around, we’re still going to be running through the top-100 by Fantrax ADP (it’s a more accurate base), with whatever little tidbits might be interesting for you come draft date. The top-100 is where you lose your draft, so if you keep yourself from doing that, you’re in a better position to win. (sept27)

Note, Fantrax’s ADP numbers severely underrate goalies, so I’ll be focusing more on the order of them, rather than exactly where they’re being drafted:

10. 1-10:

Connor McDavid: (Same text as last year) The top guy, and if you're considering anyone else with first overall then you're either getting too cute, or your league has some wacky categories/weightings.

Leon Draisaitl: The undoubted second-overall pick now, and may have wing eligibility depending on your provider. Edmonton also has the best H2H playoff schedule this year, so make every effort to get one of the above-two on your team this year.

Nathan MacKinnon: This is where it opens up a little, but MacKinnon and his shot volume is the safest bet. If I’m not drafting in the top three this year, then I would prefer to be at the back end of the first round to scoop up whichever of the top players drop, because the next tier or two after MacKinnon is very deep. (sept27)

11. Auston Matthews: Has dropped from his second-overall ADP at this point last year, but he’s still a top-five based on potential. Health is the main issue, which really dragged him down because he was playing through a shot-affecting injury last season. If he’s back to full-health, then he has the scoring and shooting upside of the other top options, on top of high hit and block numbers.

David Pastrnak: Having lost his main two centres, we have to wonder whether he doesn’t have the same support and his scoring drops, or if that can be offset by having the puck even more. His ceiling is as high as ever, but we’re not quite sure where the floor is this year.

Mikko Rantanen: The healthiest option of the top-tier Avalanche skaters, plays some wing and centre, and is very consistent year to year. One of the safest options after the top three. (sept27)

12. 11-20:

Brady Tkachuk: Maybe as high as number four on my list depending on the league categories. I had my bold take on him last week that he is passing 90 points and pushing for 100 this year. Older brother Matt just keeps getting better, why can’t Brady do the same on an improving Sens team?

Elias Pettersson: On one hand this feels earlier than I would select him, but on the other is there really much of a drop down from Hughes or Robertson to Pettersson? Maybe it’s the single-position C designation, maybe it’s the Canucks in general that make me nervous, but I won’t be taking him quite this early.

Cale Makar: The first defenceman off the board is pick #13, which seems like in a lot of drafts someone will reach higher for him. Makar is certainly worth reaching for, but at the same time his band-aid-boy status makes him a little riskier. This year I likely let someone else reach for him because there are other 1D options to get a round later. (sept27)

13. Kirill Kaprizov: Does he finally have a skilled centre this year? No. Will that matter? Probably not. Kaprizov will likely still pace somewhere around the 100-point mark, and his hits per game have risen every year as well.

Tage Thompson: Doesn’t have the same track record of success as those above him, but his combo of stats that he put up the last year-and-a-half is tough to pass up on at this point. I will likely end up taking safe options here, as I don’t know how much higher the ceiling can go for Thompson either.

Mitchell Marner: It’s a matter of “when”, not “if”, Marner will hit 100 points. If you miss out on the first-round tier of RWs, then it will be tough to pass on Marner. He hits and shoots more than you would expect too for a 60+ assist player. (sept27)

Follow the link for the full 100…

14. One thing I love about writing about fantasy hockey is digging into what makes a player good/valuable, what changes they have/haven’t made, what changes they need/do not need to make, and what it all says about their future. It is like putting together a puzzle where different parts of the picture change every so often, and that makes it a fun challenge every day.

Nick Suzuki is a player that fits this bill. At the outset of his career, Dobber Prospects updates were effusive about his creativity, speed, and playmaking ability in junior hockey 5-6 years ago. That gives us insight into what made him a coveted prospect at the time.

This is going to be an entire section devoted to Suzuki, what his career has been like so far, changes made both on the ice and behind the bench, and what it tells us about the player he is now and could be moving forward. This will inform us as to what kind of fantasy upside he really has, and whether he’ll ever be a fantasy hockey star. (sept26)

15. As already noted and Rambled about all week, NHL training camps have opened and a few things have caught my eye.

Columbus has an obvious and intriguing battle at center, and as expected – Boone Jenner is getting the Golden Boy treatment. He’s a two-way guy, a leader, and more of a checker, but prolonged exposure alongside Johnny Gaudreau is bound to have an impact on his upside. I always find that these types of pluggers who would normally struggle to reach 55 points, eventually get to 70 or beyond if they play with a superstar for a couple of seasons. Jenner is looking like a strong candidate for this, if he can just stay healthy.

Also of note, though, is the fact that 18-year-old Adam Fantilli is coming off a huge prospects camp and was immediately inserted on the Patrik Laine line. The two have shown good chemistry so far, and if this works out it would definitely expedite Fantilli’s expected production. It would also help Laine, as well, because – Fantilli has far more offensive talent than Jenner and this line would quickly become the No.1 line on the team.

This would also spell bad news for Jack Roslovic. While Roslovic was ‘okay’ last  year, it wasn’t good enough. Last season was his time to really put his stamp on the team. Had he done that, he would roll into this season as a top-six pivot, with expected production to be very promising. Instead, he was mediocre, and now at risk of losing most of his offensive opportunities. (sept25)

16. Preseason games are well underway and with that is our coverage in Frozen Tools. Of interest to you:

• Find training camp Player News here.
• Preseason Player Stats here.
• Our preseason Box scores here.
• And, of course, our preseason Line Combos here.

The box scores are especially notable because the NHL changed their presentation. Now, at a glance, you can’t see the assists. Our box scores are not only set up for the optimal fantasy hockey experience, but yeah – we have goals and assists right there at the top of each game. (sept25)

17. I had my first draft and it was in a huge dynasty league with a group of very smart and invested owners. Trophies are very hard to come by, and I find it very difficult to have players that I want in the draft to slip through. After a deep NHL draft like the one we just witnessed in the summer, it certainly gave us an abundance of options – which allowed other players to slide. I was happy to acquire Alexander Nikishin with my first pick, at 10^th overall. He won’t be in the NHL this season or next, so the wait time is there and so is the risk. But this guy is an elite talent worth holding onto. He already has seven points in nine KHL games. (sept25)

18. I had managed to acquire 12^th overall as well, and was thrilled to have Zachary Benson reach me there. I had been adding Sabres over the past several months and so he fits in with that – I now have Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn, Casey Mittelstadt, JJ Peterka, Devon Levi, Eric Comrie, Noah Ostlund and Benson. This is a team that packs a lot of offense, which is what fantasy hockey is all about. At least in this league! The Sabres are a deep team with a lot of firepower both in the NHL and in the system. So how do they fit all those players in? Well, the cream rises to the top. And if other players are looking great but not finding a proper role, they’ll be moved to other teams to fill needs. On other teams, those players will then flourish. Don’t let organizational depth here hold you back from adding some of Buffalo’s prospects to your dynasty squads. (sept25)

19. NHL Connor Bedard Primer (interesting notes from the desk of the NHL)

345 players have made their NHL debut at age 18 or younger, including 76 active players and five last season. Only seven 18-year-olds have averaged at least a point-per-game at that age (minimum 20 GP).

That’s an amazing stat, and something to keep in mind. Connor McDavid turned 19 halfway through his first season, so he doesn’t count. Bedard – he’ll still be 18 at the end of the campaign, as his birthday is in July. Here are the seven players who achieved a point-per-game average at age 18 or younger at the end of the season:

1. Wayne Gretzky 1.53
2. Dale Hawerchuk 1.30
3. Sidney Crosby 1.25
4. Ron Francis 1.16
5. Patrick Kane 1.10
6. Steve Yzerman 1.08
7. Ted Kennedy 1.00

And that’s it. That’s the full list!

If Bedard scores on opening night, he will be the third-youngest player in NHL history to do so, trailing only Aleksander Barkov and Eddie Olczyk. (sept25)

20. Non-Bedard Season Primer

Since 2014, there have been at least five new teams making the playoffs each season that did not make it the season prior. Something to remember. Those 16 teams are not locks to get there again. You can expect five to miss. In my Guide, I projected four teams to miss the postseason this year that made it last year – so odds are, I have missed one.

Ottawa has never had four 30-goal scorers in the same season in their history. They have three players who did it last year – Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux. And Vladmir Tarasenko has reached that mark six times.

The most goals in season-opening games? Michel Goulet and Dino Ciccarelli are tied with 14. Eight different players have done this 13 times, but just one of them is active. You guessed it – Alex Ovechkin.

Ovechkin, by the way, is 72 away from Wayne Gretzky’s lofty 894 career regular season goals.

Sidney Crosby is 48 assists away from 1000, and 13 just other players have hit that mark.

Marc-Andre Fleury is 15 games away from appearing in 1000. Only three goalies have done this. And he is eight wins away from passing Patrick Roy for second all time. Martin Brodeur’s 691 is way out of reach.

Auston Matthews‘ next goal will be his 300^th. If he scores in the first game, he’ll be the 10^th fastest in history to do so (482 games). Gretzky did it in 350. (sept25)

21. Mats Zuccarello agreed to a two-year extension with a cap hit of $4.125 million. His five-year contract worth $6 million is set to expire after this season. Zuccarello is now 36 years old, which explains why his pay decreases in spite of some career seasons with the Wild.

I was not a big fan of Zuccarello’s contract when he first signed it, as he was on a modest 47-point pace during his first season with the Wild. Then Kirill Kaprizov burst onto the scene in 2020-21, which had a major impact on Zuccarello’s numbers. Playing mainly on Kaprizov’s line, Zuccarello has been a 0.8 PTS/GP player for three consecutive seasons, including recording a career-high 79 points in 70 games in 2021-22. Zuccarello should continue to produce at about a 70-point pace as long as he’s on Kaprizov’s line, but downgrade him if Kaprizov is injured or if Dean Evason somehow decides to separate them.

Later in the day, the Wild announced that Marcus Foligno has signed a four-year extension with a cap hit of $4 million. That’s a raise for Foligno, who is earning $3.1 million this season. Although his scoring was down last season (21 PTS in 65 GP), Foligno has carved out a role as a power forward for the Wild. His 23 goals and 42 points in 2021-22 were riding the wave of a 23.5 SH%, so a 30-point campaign seems like a more reasonable expectation. Foligno has much higher value in bangers leagues, as he has averaged over 100 PIM and over 200 Hits over the past two seasons.

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