Top 10 players who can surprise us in 2023-24

Tom Collins

2023-10-09

The NHL season starts Tuesday, which means on Wednesday, we’ll start to see fantasy general managers either start to panic or be overly optimistic based on the first day of action. 

Over the last few weeks, this top 10 column has also focused on optimism. We’ve looked at players who could score 50 goals for the first time in their careers, as well as potential first-time 70-point forwards and defensemen. So let’s continue that optimistic trend this week. 

Below are 10 players who can surprise us this upcoming season. Maybe these players are undervalued in one-year leagues, or they are veterans who will be getting a great opportunity to produce. Maybe they’re not even on your radar at all, or you’re planning on keeping an eye on them for streaming spots. 

If you still have a draft, some of these players could be worth bumping up your draft board.

They won’t be scoring 50 goals or reaching 70 points, but they could be worth a shot, especially in deeper leagues. 

10. Ryan Donato

Donato is probably the longest shot on this list. Normally a bottom-six player who rarely gets any power-play time, his career high is 31 points. However, the 27-year-old could find himself in the best position he will ever find himself in. He’s been lining up on the top line this preseason with Connor Bedard and Taylor Hall, and there’s not a lot of competition to usurp him. He’s been getting plenty of ice time and has also been given a shot on the top power-play unit. If you believe Bedard will be elite out of the gate, you hope he can do for Donato what Sidney Crosby did for Pascal Dupuis. 

9. Ryan Johansen

Johansen has been a frustrating player for fantasy general managers over the last few years. He doesn’t produce enough in peripheral categories, so you’re only hoping for points and power-play production, and both of those have been lacking as the 2021-22 season was his only decent season of the past four years. Now he’s in Colorado and he should be on a top-six line. Perhaps most importantly, he seems to have a spot on the top power-play unit. Maintaining that spot will be key, but if he can put up 20 power-play points, 60 points are back in play.

8. Zach Benson

A great preseason can be an indicator of things to come but isn’t a guarantee. Last year I focused on 10 players who had a great preseason. From that list, Vitek Vanecek, Barrett Hayton, Calen Addison, Andrei Kuzmenko and Martin Necas had surprisingly great preseasons that carried over into the regular season. But Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway, Shane Pinto, Yegor Chinakov and Marco Rossi didn’t. Rookie Benson has been awesome this preseason with four goals and seven points in six games. The four goals were one short of the preseason leader, and the seven points were two short. Buffalo is stacked, and Benson is an undersized 18-year-old. Can he make the team and get enough ice time to be relevant? If the team gives him a nine-game tryout, then perhaps he can stick around and be a surprising Calder candidate. 

7. Cam Talbot

No matter how great Pheonix Copley has played for L.A., it doesn’t seem like the organization trusts him. Last year, they brought in Joonas Korpisalo at the start of March and handed Korpisalo the starting reins in the postseason. In the offseason, the team brought in Talbot on a cheap contract but early speculation is that he will be the Kings’ main netminder. The Kings are a very good team in a tough division but should make the postseason. This means at least 45 wins for the squad between their two goalies. If Talbot gets the majority of the starts, he could hit the 30-win mark for only the second time in the past six campaigns. 

6. Cam York

Remember a few years ago when Philly passed on Cole Caufield to draft Cam York and gave us this moment? Well, York finally will get the opportunity this year on a poor Philadelphia team to make Flyers fans forget about that moment. The Flyers are rebuilding, especially on defense. Gone are Tony DeAngelo, Ivan Provorov and Justin Braun, and York is the best option to step up with plenty of ice time. He could also be the top guy on the top power-play unit. He could wind up as a 40-point defenseman, which is the minimum benchmark you’re looking for when it comes to offense from a defenseman. 

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5. Barrett Hayton

It’s amazing what young players can do when given the opportunity. The former fifth-overall pick was brought along slowly, averaging fewer than 11:30 minutes per contest in each of his first two partial seasons. At the start of last year, he averaged fewer than 16 minutes per night. In the last half of the season, that ice time got bumped up to about 19:30 per night. He responded with 29 points in his last 39 points, including 19 in his last 20 games. It also helps that he went from playing with Zack Kassian and Nick Ritchie to Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller. He could have easily been listed as a potential first-time 70-point candidate last week, but he should still be in line for a major breakout campaign. 

4. Henry Thrun

Most of the time, I recommend staying away from rookies in one-year leagues. However, if you’re in a league where you need to draft rookies, or where you want to take a chance on one, Thrun should be near the top of your list. San Jose doesn’t have much depth, and the 22-year-old Thrun has been one of the team’s top players in the preseason, finishing with four points in three games. He’s also the quarterback on the team’s top power-play unit. Sure, San Jose will be bad, but they will score 200-plus goals, which means someone needs to pick up points. Thrun is in a great situation to do so. 

3. Filip Gustavsson

Last Thursday, I was in a one-year draft that started at 8 p.m. I had to leave at 8:10. I got a few picks in, and before I left, I set up a quick queue to auto-draft. Gustavsson was at the top of that queue. Each year, there’s a goaler who completely surprises us, and the Wild netminder could be that player this season. The only thing holding Gustavsson back is the ghost of Marc-Andre Fleury. If the team decides to give Fleury an opportunity to get his groove back, then it may take a bit longer before Gustavsson truly takes over. However, there’s no doubt he is a much better netminder than Fleury. If Gustavsson can start 50 games, he should hit the 30-win mark pretty easily and possibly reach 35. 

2. Mike Matheson

Matheson missed 34 games last year due to injury, but he was great once he got into the lineup. This was surprising, considering that most of the top Habs players were out of the lineup at this point of the season with various injuries. Now the team is healthy to start the year, Matheson will be easily the top choice for the Habs top power-play unit. Last year, he had 34 points in 48 games, a 58-point pace. Even if his even-strength production comes down a little bit, that should be offset by an uptick in power-play production. Don’t be surprised if he flirts with 60 this year. 

1. Gabriel Vilardi

Vilardi’s production stagnated due to a back injury a few years ago, but he was great in limited time in Los Angeles last year, finishing with 41 points in 63 games, a 53-point pace. Now with the Jets, he’s been lining up in preseason on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. He’s also been on the top power-play unit. Even if Winnipeg has a major setback and struggles, you have to envision anyone getting top-line, top power-play minutes should be a shoo-in for 60 points. 

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