The Journey: Hot Starts from Brzustewicz, Lekkerimaki, Rossi, Roy, Cooley, and Jiricek

Ben Gehrels

2023-10-21

Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

Who should probably have been taken in the first round of last year's draft instead of the third? Hunter Brzustewicz (VAN), a right-shot offensive defender currently leading the OHL in points with an astounding 19 points in his first nine games, including this lethal wrister:

That production places him third in the Rank King's PNHLe ranking behind Matvei Michkov (PHI, 146) and Anton Silayev (2024, 128), a top candidate for the 2024 draft. He has decent size, no real holes in his game, and seems to be taking a significant step forward past being solid to great—at least at the OHL level.

Get him now before your leaguemates figure out how to pronounce his last name.

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There was a point last year when a different Canucks prospect, Jonathan Lekkerimaki, looked like he should have been a third-round pick instead of a first back in 2022. But he too has been scoring with a vengeance out of the gates this year—in his case in the SHL.

I had Lekkerimaki ranked higher than both Noah Ostlund and Liam Ohgren in their draft year but had been fading him hard in redrafts prior to this year. Someone offered me Danila Yurov (MIN) at the end of the summer, so I re-ranked the top of the 2022 class to see where I felt everyone was value-wise these days, and Lekkerimaki slipped from 10th to 21st. That slotted him in just behind Ostlund, who stayed constant at 19th, but still ahead of Ohgren (17 → 25), who slipped himself—despite being by far the most prolific and seemingly well-rounded of the three in their draft year.

With Lekkerimaki's blistering start to the 2023-24 campaign, however, he is regaining much of his former lustre and looks like a much more dynamic and motivated player. He currently has eight points (six goals) in his first 11 SHL games, is seeing top power-play time, and is showcasing the high-end shot and puckhandling skills that convinced Vancouver to swing for him at 15th overall.

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Speaking of Yurov, the young forward has an impressive 13 points in his first 19 KHL games this year—already one more than he managed in 59 games last year. Unlike 2022-23, when he was being shuffled between leagues and given atrocious deployment, the 2023-24 Yurov is averaging closer to 15 minutes a night, including time on the top power play, where has continued to look dangerous from the half wall.

I still have questions about Yurov's eventual upside. He has an above-average skill set across the board and seems like a balanced, skillful player, but he does not have a ton of "Wow!" moments. That was a smooth, sneaky shot, though, and he feels like a prospect whose stocks are steadily on the rise. He is on pace for 45 points in 65 games, a total which would definitely excite fantasy managers everywhere.

We still have him ranked down at 108th in the Dobber Top Prospect Forward Rankings for October, but you can expect that to change in short order—especially as his timeline for crossing over to North America draws closer. He is only signed with Magnitogorsk Metallurg through the end of 2023-24, and while he could pull a Marat Khusnutdinov and sign a two-year extension, it seems equally likely that we could even see him in a Wild sweater for a few games at the end of the current campaign.

Could Yurov be Zucarrello's eventual replacement as Kaprizov's running mate? There remain tons of question marks for now, but as a Yurov owner in multiple leagues, I love the way things are shaping up for him.

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Sticking with the Wild—these transitions are writing themselves this week! — the entire hockey world was delighted to see Marco Rossi (MIN) score his first NHL goal that wasn't immediately called back. He batted a loose puck out of mid-air (below the crossbar) against the Leafs early last week and finally got the monkey off this back.

While one point in four games is not necessarily a "hot start," there are a few other positive signs here: he is shooting the puck a good amount (2.5 shots/game), seeing about 33% of the available power play time, and holding his own at the face-off circle (48.6%). Those face-off stats are buoyed by the Wild's most recent game against L.A. when he went 85.7% on the draw (six wins). It certainly helps that he is largely facing off against bottom-six centers, but these are the kind of underlying stats that fantasy managers want to see from Rossi because it shows he is figuring out how to play in this league.

The scoring will come. Many commentators seem to have lowered their ceiling projections on Rossi, but Dobber still has his upside at 95 points in the Guide, seven points higher than young phenom Matt Boldy for reference. That differential makes me want to insert the eyes and spicy pepper emojis. I like it.

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The Jiri Kulich highlights from the AHL are piling up in a hurry. The young Sabres forward is picking up right where he left off last year with six points (four goals) in four games, continuing to prove that he is ready to join the big club.

The shot is impressive enough on its own—how smooth that wrister is, and how he can still fire it so hard from between his skates—but I love some of the details of these goals: How he slows things down after entering the zone, weaves around, loses the defenders with a drop pass, then opens up his body for the one-timer on that OT goal (a lot like Jack Hughes' recent OT winner against NYI); how he anticipates the play up the middle and pinches in aggressively to cause the turnover; how aware he is of passing lanes, ensuring that he is not only ready to shoot but that his teammate is able to get the puck across to him cleanly.

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Great stuff from the young Czech.

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Kulich is not the AHL scoring leader, however, even with that hat-trick—he is tied for third with fellow under-the-radar Sabres prospect, Isak Rosen. That honour belongs to Joshua Roy (MON), fuelled by a lethal five-point game this week.

Check out this absolutely gorgeous, effortless-looking tic-tac-toe play from Roy and his linemates:

The general consensus lately on the Montreal pipeline is that it is surprisingly stacked but also devoid of elite pieces like Matvei Michkov (too soon?) Habs fans are hoping that one of their high-end prospects like Roy, Sean Farrell, Juraj Slafkovsky, Owen Beck, or Filip Mesar can take a big step forward in the coming years into that next talent tier to help give the club the boost it needs to hit contender status.

The jury is still out on Sam Montembeault, and Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have tons of potential but still have lots to prove. Ditto with Slafkovsky and recent first-rounder David Reinbacher.

Roy might just be the catalyst this team needs. He has always shown the ability to play with high-end players, like when he was an excellent linemate for Connor Bedard (CHI) at the most recent World Junior Championships. And he also has a history of prolific scoring dating back to when he led the QMJHL in scoring with 119 points in only 66 games back in 2021-22.

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Although initially demoted to the AHL at the start of the campaign, David Jiricek did not have to wait long to get called back up. He then scored his first goal against the Rangers:

Even with Zach Werenski back from his thigh contusion, Jiricek has managed to stick with the Blue Jackets for now, playing on a pairing with one-time fantasy darling Ivan Provorov.

I acquired Werenski on the cheap when he missed the entire season last year, so I'm biased here, but I feel like Werenski's track record and 9.5 million x five years price tag are going to make it very difficult for Jiricek to get the kind of exposure he needs.

A friend asked me recently: "What is the cautionary tale that defensemen such as Adam Boqvist, Erik Brannstrom, Ty Smith, Ryan Merkley are teaching us?" Surely Jiricek is a more surefire star than those four, but it has me reflecting on the relative lack of opportunity for young defenders versus young forwards. Each of those four profiled very well in the Hockey Prospecting model, were of slighter build, and put up incredible stats in junior. But so far none of them has been able to find sustained success at the highest level.

One answer to that question is that I think young defencemen face a higher bar in a variety of ways than young forwards. In Columbus, for instance, someone like Kent Johnson can see sheltered minutes on the third line, plus 40% of the available power-play time right out of the gates. The team wants his offensive creativity out there with the man advantage because that's where he shines. With most teams regularly running eight forwards and two defenders on the PP, it's a bit of a numbers game. Even high-end young defenders are often blocked indefinitely because their team already has a bonafide number one D. I'm thinking of Evan Bouchard behind Tyson Barrie, Miro Heiskanen with John Klingberg, K'Andre Miller behind Adam Fox, Bowen Byram and Cale Makar, etc.

As hyped and skilled as upcoming young D like Jiricek, Brandt Clarke (LAK), and Kevin Korchinski (CHI) are, I'd moderate my expectations for them over the next few years because they're dealing with Werenski, Doughty, and Jones. Follow the money. Someone like Calen Addison, by the way, doesn't fall into that same category because his biggest threat to consistent PP time is Jared Spurgeon, who has become more of a defensive D in recent years.

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Lastly, I couldn't wrap this up without highlighting this disgusting pass from Logan Cooley (ARI). This kid is going to be a star, no doubt about it.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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