Wild West: Early Surprises from Each Team (Part 1)
Grant Campbell
2023-10-23
This week I'm going to look at each team in the West and pick some players who have stood out positively and perhaps negatively after just a few games.
Anaheim Ducks
Pavel Mintyukov is still only 19 years old but has already scored his first NHL goal and has two points in five games. He's averaged 19:47 per game and hasn't needed to be sheltered as he owns xG% at 5v5 of 62.9 with 48.1% of his zone starts in the offensive zone. With Jamie Drysdale out with an injury, Mintykov slotted in as the quarterback on the first unit of the power play. It was a great sign that the coaching staff originally went with Mintyukov rather than the seemingly easy choice of Cam Fowler. On Sunday, the Ducks put Fowler back as the quarterback as the game progressed with Boston in a 3-1 loss.
Jamie Drysdale should be back in the lineup sometime this next week.
After missing most of the pre-season it doesn't come as a huge surprise that Trevor Zegras failed to hit the ground running with just one assist in his first five games. His xG% at 5v5 is 71.4 so all indications point to him putting up some points at ES sooner than later.
It is unusual that a club has as many young defenders in their lineup as the Ducks do. They have three rookie defensemen on their roster with Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe and Tristan Luneau. Not to mention the 18-year-old rookie Leo Carlsson at center. I'm not sure why, but the Ducks have elected to not play Carlsson in every game during the first half of the season and as a result he didn't dress against Boston on Sunday after playing 21:33 the night before.
Arizona Coyotes
I could choose either one of Logan Cooley or Sean Durzi as the early pleasant surprises. The 19-year-old Cooley has impressed with four points in five games which have all been on the power play. He has yet to get a point at even strength but his expected goal percentage is 49.3 at ES. He has been good in the face-off circle and has won 52.1 percent of his draws so far. The Coyotes are giving Cooley every opportunity to this point. He has just five SOG, so unless he increases his shot rate, he might struggle to get 15-20 goals this year.
As for Durzi, he has been given the quarterback job on the first unit of the power play and already has two PPGs in five games and four points overall. His ice time has increased from 18-19 minutes in Los Angeles to 23:00 in Arizona.
Karel Vejmelka and Connor Ingram have both been excellent in the first five games. I'm not sure the Coyotes play defense well enough over 82 games to allow any goalie success over the long haul, but enjoy the success of both while it lasts.
On the other side, Barrett Hayton, Lawson Crouse, Alex Kerfoot and J.J. Moser have gone pointless in their first five games. Hayton started 2022-23 with just three assists in his first 20 games and he certainly doesn't want a similar start to 2023-24. For Hayton, it should just be a matter of getting some bounces as he has 15 SOG and is on the first unit of the PP while averaging 19:30 per game.
Crouse has seen his ice time reduced from over 17 minutes per game the past two seasons to 15:13 per game so far. It is going to be difficult for Crouse to get back over 20 goals without playing 17 minutes or more, but the Coyotes have added Jason Zucker, Logan Cooley and Alex Kerfoot to the mix on the wing.
Moser is a real concern moving forward as he has seen his ice time go from over 21 minutes per game to just 15:34. He is currently being slotted as a fifth defender with no power play time. Just a reminder that he had seven goals, 24 assists, 80 hits and 137 blocks in 82 games in 2022-23 as a 22-year-old. The additions of Durzi, Matt Dumba and Travis Dermott have hurt him to this point.
Calgary Flames
Adam Ruzicka has had a good start with two goals and two assists in six games while averaging 12:55 per game. In 2022-23, he had a good start as well, with five goals and nine points in his first 11 games. He had 11 points in 33 games the rest of the season where he was a healthy scratch more often than not. He received a chance to play on the top unit of the power play for the Flames last three games, but that opportunity might not be there for a fourth game as he produced nothing, but there should be the same concern as 2022-23 that he will slow down. I think he's earned a regular ES role at the very least.
Andrew Mangiapane has had three goals and two assists in six games, which might get people excited for him to get back to 35 goals once again. The bad news is that he has had just seven SOGs and is sitting with a shooting percentage of 42.9. When he scored 35 goals, he had a shooting percentage of 18.9.
Matt Coronato has been an exciting addition to this roster and has a goal and an assist in six games, but has struggled at ES and is a minus six. He was dropped from the first unit of the power play after game three but saw some time there on Sunday in the Flames 6-2 loss to Detroit.
The good news in goal is that Jacob Markstrom has had three quality starts in four games. The bad news is that he has a save percentage of 90.5 and a GSAA of 0.14 which puts him as an average goaltender. The Flames need him to be better than average, but it's a good start.
Nazem Kadri has had a disastrous start to the 2023-24 campaign. He has just one assist in six games and is a team worst minus eight with a xG% at 5v5 of 40.4.
Jonathan Huberdeau had a good first few games but has tailed off a little and has four points after six games (0.67/g) which is slightly below his very disappointing 55 points in 79 games (0.70/g) from 2022-23. His xG% at 5v5 is 45.1.
Chicago Blackhawks
Connor Bedard went pointless in three successive games before getting his first goal on home ice. He has two goals and two assists in six games with three points which puts him on pace for 50-55 points. Is that a more realistic expectation than what most of us had for him? The good signs are his 22 SOG which is 3.7 per game and his CF% of 48.8 and xG% 5v5 of 47.0 tell us that he is trading chances fairly evenly with the opposition overall at ES. I still have him for 30 goals and 70 to 75 points.
The 22-year-old rookie Alex Vlasic seems to have received a regular role in Chicago after turning pro at the end of 202-22 after three years at Boston University. He is not likely to be much of an offensive defender, but in six games has six hits and 13 blocks while averaging 19:14 per game.
19-year-old Kevin Korchinski has played six games and has two points. He has seen some PP time (37.8%) and has 13 blocks while averaging 19:28 per game. For Korchinski to stick for the whole season as a regular, the power play will need to start clicking while he is on the ice and he'll need to improve defensively without the puck.
Lukas Reichel gave some people high expectations for what he could do in 2023-24 after he had seven goals and eight assists in 23 games in 2022-23. In six games, he is pointless with 15 SOG and has gone minus six. He will need to start producing or he might be in danger of heading to the AHL sooner than later.
Colorado Avalanche
Alexandar Georgiev has been stellar after five games with five wins, a save percentage of 94.3 and a GSAA of 5.44. He could see more than 55 starts in 2023-24.
Ryan Johansen has two goals and one assist in five games and all the points have come on the power play. I think the benefit for the Avalanche is most important in the face-off circle where Johansen has won 57.7% of his draws and defensively where Johansen sits at 73.6 xG% at 5v5. If Johansen can chip in 50-55 points it will help out the Avalanche even more.
Artturi Lehkonen has had a great start with six points in five games and four of those points coming on the power play. He could exceed his career-high of 21 goals and 51 points in 2023-24.
Bowen Byram has been a little disappointing with just one point in five games with very little power play time and averaging 17:42 per game. In 2022-23 he averaged just under 22 minutes per game and had 0.57 points per game.
Jonathan Drouin's connection to playing junior hockey with Nathan MacKinnon hasn't had the desired outcome for Drouin yet. In Colorado's last game, Drouin was taken off the line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen and replaced by Tomas Tatar. Right now, he has one point in five games and had his shot for four games, which he might not get back.
Dallas Stars
Wyatt Johnston has seen his role elevated as he has averaged over 18 minutes per game after averaging 15:29 in 2022-23. He has responded with four points in his first four games.
Thomas Harley as expected has been given a regular role in the top four and has averaged 20 minutes per game after the first four games. While his increased role might not translate to offense it has put him on the radar for poolies.
Jason Robertson has struggled out of the gate with just two assists in four games on seven SOG which is just 1.8/g. He averaged 3.8/g in 2022-23. The healthy return of Roope Hintz should get Robertson back on track but he might be hard-pressed to duplicate 46 goals and 109 points.
Matt Duchene, Evgenii Dadonov and Mason Marchment have all been held without a point after the first four games.
Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid has had a slow start under his standards with eight points in his first five games as he's had just three points at even strength and was a minus three with a 46.8 xG% at 5v5. Fortunately, his slow start still has him on pace for 131 points. He had 4.3 shots per game in 2022-23 and has had 2.6/g after five games. He was injured in the Oilers last game and is expected to be out of the lineup for 1-2 weeks.
Evan Bouchard has had five points in five games with four of those points coming with the man advantage. His ability to breakout and score 60 points or more in 2023-24 is looking to be on pace.
Evander Kane has just one point in five games but he does have 11 SOG and 19 hits. His 35.5 xG% at 5v5 has been the issue as he is a minus six and the Oilers have been thoroughly out-chanced while he has been on the ice.
Connor Brown missed almost all of 2022-23 and it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that he has had a very slow start to 2023-24. In five games, he has produced just four SOG while being pointless. He has had a PDO of 850, so should start to see some production.
Stuart Skinner has had two RBS (really bad starts) in his two starts. He currently has a save percentage of 81.4 and a GSAA of negative 5.34. The Oilers need him to rebound to the goalie who won 29 times in 2022-23.
Los Angeles Kings
Trevor Moore had 10 goals in 59 games in 2022-23 and already has four goals after five games in 2023-24. He is currently shooting 28.6 percent and he has a career shooting percentage of 8.9 so expect this to come down. It is still an encouraging start for Moore to break his career-high of 17 goals.
Alex Laferriere scored his first NHL goal in his fifth NHL game. He hasn't produced many points but he has 17 SOG in five games and has a xG% at 5v5 of 51.1. He is someone to keep an eye on.
Jordan Spence made the Kings over Brandt Clarke after the pre-season and has been used on the second unit of the power play and on the third pairing averaging 14:21 per game. In the four games he has dressed he has no points. Drew Doughty is unlikely to give up his role on the first unit, so Spence will need to take advantage of the limited opportunities he does see.
Minnesota Wild
Joel Eriksson Ek had elevated his production six years in a row from 0.21 to 0.78 points per game. So far in 2023-24 he has had four goals and three assists in five games (1.4). While he is unlikely to maintain this pace, he should improve upon the 0.78/g from 2022-23. He has a great chance to exceed his career-high of 26 goals.
Brock Faber has a role in the top-four for the Wild this season and after five games he has a goal, an assist, four hits and 10 blocks while averaging 23:09 per game. Calen Addison is still getting a regular turn as the quarterback on the first unit of the power play, but Faber might be the next option with Jared Spurgeon out with an injury.
Marco Rossi scored his first NHL goal in his 23rd NHL game. He has one goal in five games on 13 SOG, which matches his shot total in 19 games from 2022-23. He should be able to stick this time around.
Calen Addison has averaged 18:55 per game which is an increase from the 16:07 he averaged in 2022-23. He is still the quarterback on the first unit of the power play and has two assists in five games with one coming with the man advantage. If Addison can maintain his current defensive play, he should be able to dress for 75 games or more. Keeping his role as the quarterback will rely on his production.