This week on Frozen Tool Forensics we are going to be digging into time on ice. In what has become a recurring series in the column we are going to use our Frozen Tools Reports to highlight some players who are seeing big changes in their deployment. Production follows deployment, so knowing how players are being used is crucial to fantasy success. Today we are going to be looking at players who are seeing an increase in their fortunes.

To dig into this, I am comparing two Time on Ice reports. The first is from the end of the 2022-23 season. It contains essentially the second half (about 40 games for each player) of the season. The second report is from the games to date (November 1) for the 2023-24 season (November 2 not included). We will be looking at percent of the team's total power play (%PP) and average total time on ice (TOI). Power-play percent gives us an idea of how much usage a player is getting compared to other players on the team and helps account a bit for small sample sizes.

First up, power play.

The first caveat to this table is this only includes players who had a relevant sample of games in 2022-23. We are not including rookies or players who one got a game or two last season. So yes, Connor Bedard and Luke Hughes are getting much bigger shares of the power-play time currently than they did last season.

It does seem like a good time to check in on Ryan Donato. He was a nice early season stream, but has been very quiet since. He started hot riding shotgun with the aforementioned Bedard at even strength and on the power play. Lately though, not so much. In his last three games he has less than 30 percent of the team's power-play and 13 or fewer minutes of total time on ice. Nick Foligno and Philipp Kurashev have taken over top line and top power-play duties. So I suppose if you want to chase Bedard exposure those are your guys, but at the moment they aren't really appealing targets. As for Donato, he is pretty clearly a drop if anyone happens to still be hanging on.

Nicholas Paul and Evan Rodrigues are in a bit of a similar situation for power-play deployment at least. They have both stepped into top power-play roles and thus far it seems to be sticking. for Rodrigues. There is a question if the power-play will look different once Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad return (maybe end of November). On the plus side though Rodrigues has top line even strength minutes with Alex Barkov and Sam Reinhart, while Paul has been dealing with a bit of line shuffling in Tampa, most recently on a second line with Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel.

On D we have Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Travis Sanheim. We won't spend too much time on OEL. He has the role given Florida’s top two choices are injured (Montour and Ekblad) so hold him while he is there, but that likely changes once Montour and Ekblad return. Sanheim, on the other hand, certainly seems to be thriving in Philly. He has ascended to the top power-play and top pair seeing dramatic increases in both areas. It has resulted in career high power-play time on ice, total time on ice, shot rates, and ten points in ten games. We will see if there is any shake up when Rasmus Ristolainen returns, but things are looking great for Sanheim right now.

For honorable mention I wanted to throw out two more names, Ryan O'Reilly and Pavel Zacha. They are seeing increases in the 30 percent range, but in terms of players who might be/might have been available early in the season they are the next names on the list.

Pavel Zacha is inheriting a top line/top power play role in Boston sort of by default because Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retired. We knew that going into the season, but this seems like a good point to check in on how it is going. Boston has been shuffling lines a bit, but as of their October 30 game Zacha was getting top line treatment with David Pastrnak and surprise Matthew Poitras. In that game Zacha was on the second power-play unit. As of practice on November 1, that top line was still intact, but Zacha was back with the top power-play unit. As far as results, Zacha is seeing career high time on ice, power-play minutes, and shot rates, but is currently on a 55-point pace, which is not great, or a career high.

Most of Zacha's underlying numbers seem very consistent with previous years (or too high if anything) with the exception of his points participation numbers. Basically, his linemates are scoring frequently with him on the ice, he is scoring at his usual pace, but he isn't getting in on as many assists as we might have expected (both at even strength and on the power-play), which is a little odd as his secondary assist rate is actually a bit high. So essentially, he has not been that involved in the offense in a primary assist capacity. It is early so likely some of that will even out a bit and means we could see a career year for Zacha, but that still may only be 60-65 points.

Thus far moving to Nashville has been a good change for Ryan O'Reilly. He has spent most of the year with Filip Forsberg at even strength and on the power-play. There really isn't much better you can do in Nashville. After a very disappointing 2022-23 season, he is seeing increases in total ice time, power-play deployment, shot rates, and his overall point pace. He is scoring unsustainably at the moment (21% shooting percentage), but everything seems to be lining up for a bounceback season for O'Reilly.

If we focus on total time on ice, we mostly see D as the biggest beneficiaries. This makes sense as they see the most minutes, but doesn't help us all that much. More ice time does sometimes mean more peripherals, and more opportunities to luck into points, but outside of Sanheim, there isn't a ton of actionable data here.

It gets a bit more interesting if we look just at forwards though.

We have already talked about Donato, Foligno (now in that top line role in Chicago), and O'Reilly. I am not super optimistic about Evgeny Kuznetsov whose inclusion here is more a reflection of how poorly he did in 22-23 rather than a real endorsement of his current situation.

Frank Vatrano on the other hand is worth a quick pause. Vatrano has technically been on a second line and second power play with Mason McTavish, though as of November 1, Trevor Zegras joined that group making it maybe the top line? Either way he and McTavish at least have been having a great start to the season. He has ten points in ten games coming in the form of nine goals and one assist. Sure there are a few warning signs. His sky-high personal shooting percentage for one, which is also driving his team even strength shooting percentage to be too high. But on the flip side, he is getting more time on ice than ever, has higher shot and expected goal numbers than ever, plus his points participation is actually a little bit low (only having one assist will probably do that to you). So will he end up point per game with 72 goals? Probably not. But he is getting more opportunity than he ever has before so exceeding his career high 42-point pace is certainly in the cards. And while he is hot? Definitely roster him and see what happens.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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