Ramblings: Hughes Injured, Fox on LTIR, Toothless Sharks, Canuck Luck? (Nov 4)

Ian Gooding

2023-11-04

Jack Hughes has raced out to the NHL scoring lead, but his season might have hit a detour. Hughes left Friday's game in the first period with an upper-body injury after crashing into the boards following a scoring chance.

According to Elliotte Friedman, it might take a day or two to figure out the severity of the injury. For now, consider Hughes doubtful for Sunday's game against Chicago and cross your fingers that it's not something serious. Without Nico Hischier (upper body) and now potentially Hughes, the up-and-coming Devils suddenly look very thin up the middle. As an example, Erik Haula‘s icetime had already been trending upward, but he skated nearly 19 minutes on Friday.

With 11 forwards, the Devils seemed to double-shift Jesper Bratt, as he played a season-high 23 minutes in the 4-1 loss to St. Louis. Bratt's eight-game point streak came to an end, one that he has recorded all 18 points of his season so far.

With roster spots opening up due to Adam Fox's injury (more on him shortly), I took a gamble on two players that do not have a point yet but should by now: Dawson Mercer and Torey Krug. Sure enough, neither player was able to break the goose egg on Friday. My reason for adding both players is more scheduling than anything, since I also need a defenseman for Saturday (Krug), while Mercer and the Devils play again on Sunday. But it's definitely counterintuitive and channels my inner George Costanza. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Mercer at least took four shots and blocked four more, and with the line juggling ended up on a line with Tyler Toffoli and Timo Meier. If Hughes is out for any length of time, then Mercer is one player who could stand to benefit. He's spent at least part of the season on a line with Haula and Curtis Lazar, which seems to have hindered him offensively.

The Blues have scored just one power-play goal all season, an area where Krug's strength lies. In addition, his points-per-game averages have declined for five consecutive years, from 0.83 PTS/GP in 2018-19 to 0.51 PTS/GP last season to nothing this season. You're justified in dropping Krug, and I'm wondering if a change is made on the power play soon. If Craig Berube is fired, the stock of Justin Faulk or even Scott Perunovich could definitely rise. Krug has a cap hit of $6.5 million for four more seasons, which might explain why a change hasn't already occurred.

Kevin Hayes led the Blues with a pair of goals and an assist and a plus-2 in their win. Yet it should be concerning for St. Louis that top-6 forwards Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, and Brayden Schenn are nowhere to be found on the scoresheet. All three are without a point in their last four games. Yet that all comes back to the power play, where all three are mainstays. The Blues are also averaging just two goals per game, the league's third-worst offense when measured by that category.

At least Robert Thomas is scoring. Thomas scored an empty-net goal on Friday, giving him six points over his last six games.

The Rangers have placed Adam Fox on LTIR as a result of the possible knee injury he suffered during Thursday's game. An initial estimate has Fox missing 2-4 weeks, but Fox is eligible to return to the Rangers lineup in late November. He will miss a minimum of 10 games, which puts of course puts fantasy teams in a tight spot.

One option for Fox owners is Erik Gustafsson, who was the most-used Rangers defenseman on their power play on Thursday. Depending on who else is available in your league, Gustafsson is worth an add to try to make up some of the points Fox would have contributed. As mentioned yesterday, Gustafsson picked up 25 points over 33 games last season with the Capitals when John Carlson was injured.

Also related to the Rangers: Filip Chytil (upper body) has been placed on IR, while Igor Shesterkin is battling a day-to-day injury. Jonathan Quick, who is expected to start today (Saturday) against Minnesota, is a possible waiver-wire pickup. Quick has started the season strong with two wins and just one goal allowed in the equivalent of 2.5 games. The Rangers also play three home games against Detroit, Minnesota, and Columbus next week.

Sean Couturier missed Friday's game with a lower-body injury. Couturier has missed significant time over the last two seasons because of two back surgeries, so it's not known whether this is at least somewhat related. In Couturier's absence, the icetime among Flyers forwards was fairly evenly distributed, so it's difficult to know who really benefitted.

Bobby Brink scored a goal and added an assist on Friday, giving him three multipoint games in his last five games. Brink is a rookie with a bright future, and he's worth at least a short-term pickup. Yet beyond Couturier, no Flyer has averaged more than 17:30 of icetime. John Tortorella isn't the most fantasy-friendly coach, so I'm having a hard time figuring out whether this could be sustainable. If a player like Morgan Frost can be healthy scratched a bunch of times already, then what's stopping Torts from placing Brink on the fourth line soon if he's not impressed with his game? The Flyers have been better than expected early on, creating multiple worthwhile waiver-wire adds. Brink is the latest, but I wouldn't give him a long leash unless you're in a keeper format more because of the system he's in than anything.  

In case you missed it on Thursday night, the Canucks spanked the Sharks to the tune of 10-1. The Sharks are the only winless team left, with every other team winning at least two games. The Sharks are the absolute gimme matchup of the season, so start every single one of your Penguins on Saturday (I'll beat the daily fantasy and game picks writers to the punch on that one).

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If you've had a chance to scan the San Jose roster, you'll see it's a team filled with at least a few players you've never heard of and some more players that have fallen out of fantasy relevance. Remember when Mikael Granlund was piling up the points for your fantasy team? Or when you could count on at least 25 goals per season from Mike Hoffman? Or when Kevin Labanc was the breakout candidate you needed to have on your team? Yup, they're all on the Sharks, a team that has scored 10 goals all season – the same number the Canucks scored on Thursday. It's funny how hard we clutch on to certain players, yet in a few short years they reach "just another guy" status.

On the other side of the coin, the Canucks have been one of the league's biggest surprises so far. Rick Tocchet has them near the top of the standings as a team playing its best hockey since the 2020 bubble playoffs. If you have a Canuck on your fantasy roster, chances are you haven't been disappointed at all.

(Stats on the graphic above are before Friday's games. If you can’t see it, Pettersson is second in NHL scoring with 19 points.)

There's nothing like a 10-goal game to inflate the stats. But will any Canucks be hit hard by regression?

Let's start in net. Thatcher Demko has won each of his last four games while posting quality starts in three of them. We know that a healthy and effective Demko is critical for the Canucks' playoff chances. He's been that and then some so far, leading the league with a .967 SV% in high-danger locations. Usually that specific type of save percentage is much lower than the league average, which you’d expect and as you'll see below.

By my research the Canucks are giving up a similar number of high-danger scoring chances this season compared to last season, so Demko's current ratios (1.79 GAA, .940 SV%) aren't sustainable in any way. That doesn't mean he'll turn into a terrible fantasy option, but his overall numbers should come back to earth. As it stands now, you could try flipping him for an elite option.

All of Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller, and Elias Pettersson have shooting percentages north of 20 percent. All are multiple shades of red on the Frozen Tools Buy/Sell Meter, indicating that you could sell high on all. I don't know how much higher you return on a player like Pettersson or even Miller, since both were drafted on average in the top 50 of Yahoo drafts. Pettersson already has a 100-point season on his resume, while Miller fell just short (99 points) in 2021-22.

Boeser seems like the most likely sell high to me, since he scored just 18 goals last season and is already up to eight this season. That being said, Boeser is shooting the puck a little more, and he is averaging more power-play time per game than he had last season – clearly now a PP1 fixture after Bo Horvat was traded. There's still a lot to like about Boeser, who could hit the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career. It wouldn't be a bad idea to try to flip him for a more established option.

The player I'd be the most confident about is Quinn Hughes. Leading all defensemen in scoring, Hughes is shooting the puck a lot more (from 2.0 SOG/GP last season to 3.5 SOG/GP this season). That's already led to four goals for a player that has never scored double-digit goals. Better yet, Hughes' bread-and-butter in terms of fantasy value has been assists. Hughes' secondary assist percentage is actually lower (33%) than it has been in previous seasons (between 45-50%). That could be offset by a lack of 10-goal games going forward, as Hughes was able to pick up five points on Thursday. If he regresses to his point pace from last season, Hughes will be in the conversation for a 90-point season.

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