Good morning/afternoon/evening everyone. I am covering for Ian today as he had a couple of prior commitments, but he'll be back in his usual spot next weekend.

The big news out of Minnesota over the last couple days was the move of Marco Rossi to the top line, with Matt Boldy coming along with him, to play with Kirill Kaprizov. Rossi went into Saturday night's home game against the Rangers being tied for the rookie lead in goals and tied for the rookie lead in even strength points. If this trio does the damage we think (hope?) they can, it could be a huge breakout year for Rossi after going through so much just to get to this point. There is potential for a great story here.

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Adam Pelech was out of the lineup for the Islanders on Saturday. Not that he's someone most fantasy owners target, but as we saw with Scott Mayfield out of the lineup, it's something that can transfer a lot of minutes to guys like Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock. Pelech did skate yesterday morning so it doesn't seem he'll be out for long but it's something to monitor.

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Ottawa had a very different-looking lineup on Saturday as they moved Mathieu Joseph to the top line and Claude Giroux to the 'third' line, along with Drake Batherson. Following a season that saw a big per-game goal scoring drop for Batherson, he had only scored once in nine games heading into Saturday's tilt with Tampa Bay. We will see how long this lasts.

The Sens gave up a hat trick to Brayden Point in their 6-4 home loss against the Lightning on Saturday. Tampa Bay had split Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos across three lines and they mostly stuck to it. That balance led to a dominant performance from the road side.

Point added an assist for a four-point game. Kucherov had 1+4 with five shots on goal while Stamkos had a helper and four shots. Michael Eyssimont also scored once on two shots landing a hit.

Ottawa broke up those lines by the end of the second period and Brady Tkachuk registered a goal and assist afterwards on a line with Norris and Batherson. Tkachuk finished with 1+2 in the loss. His 50-plu goal pace continues.

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St. Louis put a 6-3 beatdown on Montreal in a game that was chock-full of Habs mistakes from start to finish. Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou each had a goal and two assists while Robert Thomas had one of each. Thomas is now up to four goals and nine points in 10 games while averaging over two shots per game. Not a bad start to his season.

Brandon Saad also had a goal and an assist while Juraj Slafkovsky, Brendan Gallagher, and Nick Suzuki replied for Montreal.

Christian Dvorak returned to the lineup for Montreal.

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An Auston Matthews hat trick was not enough for Toronto as they gave up a 6-4 game to Buffalo. He and Mitch Marner (1+3) both had big fantasy nights, while William Nylander had an assist with five shots.

The story was Alex Tuch on the other side as he boosted Buffalo's offence with two goals of his own, including the game-winner that went off his chest (shoulder?).  Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson also scored while JJ Peterka had one of each to go with four shots. That is six points in his last five outings.

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It was a huge day for Nashville's top line in Edmonton as Ryan O'Reilly managed a hat trick and added an assist in the team's 5-2 win over the Oilers. He now has seven goals in 11 games, a goal total he didn't reach last season until December. Four of those tallies have been on the power play.

Filip Forsberg had the inverse game with one goal and three assists, landing four shots and a pair of hits as well. Not only is he up to 13 points, he is over four shots and nearly 1.5 hits per game.

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Winnipeg fought back from a 2-0 deficit in Arizona to take their game 5-3. Nino Niederreiter managed a hat trick of his own, pushing him to five goals, nine points, and 12 hits in 11 games. That will play just fine in banger formats.

Brenden Dillon had two goals and an assist from the blueline.

Lawson Crouse scored a power play goal, totaled three shots, added an assist, and threw three hits in the loss. He has four goals, 19 shots, and 17 hits in 10 games as he's started to heat up.

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Detroit clawed back from a 4-2 score to overtake Boston 5-4 at home in Michigan on Saturday night. David Perron had his best night of the year with a goal and two assists (one on the power play) with three shots and a hit. Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond both had a goal and an assist with Raymond posting five shots and a pair of hits.

Jake Walman also scored for the Wings and he now has three goals and six points in 12 games to go with 22 shots and 34 blocks. What a fantasy season he's having.

Both David Pastrnak and Matthew Poitras had a goal and assist each in the loss. That makes six points in his last seven games for the rookie.

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Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev led the Kings to a 5-0 win over the Flyers with the former managing three assists (one on the power play) and the latter posting one goal and one assist with three shots. Byfield is now up to 10 points in 11 games as his breakout season is fully underway.

Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar both scored while Trevor Moore had one of each. That makes four goals and 11 points in his last eight games for Kempe, totaling 33 shots on goal.

Cam Talbot stopped all 24 shots he faced for the shutout.

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Carolina erased a 3-0 deficit to win 4-3 in overtime against the New York Islanders. Sebastian Aho scored the overtime winner, doing so by hiding in the neutral zone and then exploding past the defence:

Our Sebastian Aho is elite 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/tOLG8GUD2F

— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) November 5, 2023

He may not reach the true upper echelon of centres, but the guy is so, so good.

Andrei Svechnikov had a pair of assists with two shots and two hits in his best fantasy effort since returning. He is still stuck on the second PP unit so temper expectations, but he's starting to look like himself again.

Very, very quietly, Jesperi Kotkaniemi is up to 12 points in 12 games. He is averaging 2.5 shots per game but is below a hit per game for the first time since his rookie season. I'm sure the team will take that tradeoff.

Noah Dobson had a goal, four shots, and a pair of blocks in the loss as his fantastic start rolls on.

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Petr Mrazek stopped 38 of 40 shots faced as Chicago took a 5-2 win over Florida. He now has three wins in six starts with a .923 save percentage as he's keeping this team in a lot of games they shouldn't be in. A nice late pick for fantasy owners thus far.

Taylor Hall scored in his return to the lineup, managing three shots total. Connor Bedard also scored while Philipp Kurashev had one goal and two assists as he retains his top-line role next to the rookie.

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In the Night of the Comeback, Minnesota roared back from a 3-0 first-period deficit, scoring twice in the second and twice in the third to force a 4-4 overtime, eventually winning in a shootout. Rossi scored in his top-line debut, managing four shots and a block in 22:44 of ice time. The only Wild forward to play more than he did was linemate Kirill Kaprizov. It seems he's arrived.

Erik Gustafsson had a goal and an assist for the Rangers in his first game replacing Adam Fox. We just saw him do this for John Carlson last year. Be sure to check waiver wires.

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Thatcher Demko's great season persisted with a 2-0 shutout of the Dallas Stars. He now has six wins and a .947 save percentage in eight starts on the season. He has been phenomenal since returning from injury last season. Elias Pettersson scored in the win, making him the second player (after Jack Hughes) to reach 20 points on the season.

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Vegas beat the holy hell out of Colorado 7-0 on Saturday night. Mark Stone had a four-point game, posting two goals and two assists on five shots, adding a pair of blocks. Both William Karlsson and Jack Eichel had two goals so the offence was spread across three lines, which shows the danger of this team when they're at their best.

Adin Hill stopped all 41 shots he faced as his save percentage on the year is up to .938. The Avalanche have now been shutout in three of their last four games. That is, uh, concerning.

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It happened again: San Jose allowed 10 goals. The Penguins beat the Sharks 10-2 in another laugher. Having endured the mid-2010s Buffalo Sabres, I feel qualified to say this: bring relegation to the NHL. The bottom two teams go to the AHL every year while the top two teams in the AHL go to the NHL. Have these NHL owners lose tens of millions in gate revenue because they failed to even bother icing a competitive team and see how long tanking persists in the league.

Jake Guentzel (2+2), Reilly Smith (2+2), Bryan Rust (1+3), and Evgeni Malkin (2+0) all had great games while Erik Karlsson (0+2, two blocks, two PIMs) had a successful revenge game.

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Calgary took a 6-3 win in Seattle and showed their path to success this year: don't let their goalies face more than 20 shots while also scoring at least five goals. It feels like a recipe to a playoff appearance.

Even with six goals, Mikael Backlund (2+0) was the only player with multiple points while Martin Pospisil scored his first NHL goal. Dan Vladar saved 17 of 20 shots faced in a game that he played.

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There were 15 games in the NHL yesterday so there won't be much research-type stuff. I did want to highlight a few players that have had great starts to their seasons, even if it doesn't translate to monster fantasy production right now.

The tracking website AllThreeZones tracks hundreds of games every year in a lot of different areas. One that I key in on is 'scoring chance contributions per 60 at 5-on-5' (SCC/60) or the rate at which a player either takes an individual scoring chance or assists on one from a teammate. It can help highlight players that are heavily involved in their team's even strength offence.

Obviously, there isn't a big sample yet. For that reason, we'll limit it to forwards with at least 40 minutes tracked and defensemen with 50. It's nothing to hang a hat on, but it is something fun to track through the season to see how things change. A few notes first:

• The league average in SCC/60 among forwards in the sample is 7.62. One standard deviation away from that is above 11.6 or under 4.0.
• The league average in SCC/60 among defensemen in the sample is 2.42. One standard deviation away from that is above 4.3 or under 0.9.

Some notable highlights.

Following a great year by this measure in 2022-23 (~10.7/60), Brandon Hagel is up to ~12.3/60 minutes. The difference between the two seasons is that he's rarely played with Nikita Kucherov this year. I am fascinated to see if he can keep this up:

Uh, yeah. Playing with Steven Stamkos so much is probably helping, but doing this with two different sets of line mates in two different seasons is very notable.

Dylan Larkin leads the league at 17.7/60 minutes. The only other forward over 17.0 is Auston Matthews, and only Artemi Panarin and Kucherov are over 15.0. Larkin has long been the offensive engine of this team, and the acquisition of Alex DeBrincat and (hopeful) ascension of Lucas Raymond are helping a lot early on.

Seattle's Tye Kartye is inside the 90^th percentile of forwards. The way they use their forwards is unlikely to lead to a huge fantasy season for the rookie, but he's certainly showing more of the promise he showed in the 2023 playoffs.

On the topic of young players, Quinton Byfield's rate is well above the league average and in line with some notable offensive stars around the league:

See both Kevin Fiala and Phillip Danault there? Neither play on his line. Byfield's SCC/60 number is higher than that of Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe combined. He is the bus driver for that line right now.

Of the top six defencemen, most names make sense: Quinn Hughes, Erik Karlsson, Shea Theodore, Cale Makar, and Hampus Lindholm. None of them are leading all defencemen, though, as that title goes to *shuffles notes* Travis Sanheim. His start has not been a mirage; he's been excellent. Let's see if he can keep it up for five more months.

Just outside the top-6 blueliners is Drew Doughty. I had concerns that his career was on a serious downswing, but he's turned back the clock. Again, let's see where he stands five months from now, but a great start for him (and a lot of Kings, honestly).

There are a handful of defenders on the list without a single SCC so far this season and, again, most make sense: Brayden Pachal, Ian Cole, Erik Cernak and so on. Also on the list of the SCC-less rearguards? Bowen Byram. There is a good reason why his production – particularly the assists – has not been great to start the year. It is a wonder if he's playing injured because he does keep taking maintenance days rather than practicing.

Again, all these numbers should be taken with a pound of salt, but it's still interesting to see how this lines up with good/bad production early on.

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