Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Marco)

What is going on with Blake Wheeler in New York? Why would they have signed him if they were going to use him like this? Or is he just really bad at this point?

Let's not forget that only a few weeks ago I pegged Wheeler to finish with the most points of any 2023 UFA. I'm definitely wondering the same thing as you.

In Wheeler's first game as a Ranger, he skated 15:00 overall, seeing time on PP2 and registering two SOG. Peter Laviolette must not have liked what he saw though, as after that Wheeler has failed to take the ice for even 13:00 for the next seven games in a row.

Perhaps now the signs are pointing towards an improvement? As I write this, he was above 13:00 in the last two contests and even back on PP2 in one, averaging three SOG in those two games and even finishing in the plus column for the first time all season. That having been said, Wheeler is not even averaging a hit per every other game, which is low even considering his downward trend in recent seasons.

The big question though is whether he's bringing down Vincent Trocheck, with whom he's most often taken the ice, or vice versa. Tough to say, as although Trocheck has four points, three of those came on the PP, where he's still getting first unit time. That, to me, is the key detail. Somehow the Rangers had deemed Wheeler as undeserving of any PP time, and only now have started to give him scraps yet again. In their mind least a half dozen other forwards give their PP a better chance to score. If this continues, Wheeler is basically toast.

Looking back, there were signs perhaps pointing in this direction, as Wheeler had points in only three of his final 13 games of 2022-23, and took the ice for less than 15:00 in his last six contests. This for a Jets team which wasn't exactly brimming with other offensive talent. Let's not forget that the Rangers are only on the hook for $1.1M to Wheeler for this season only. That kind of money won't buy him the chances he'd get if he were still earning over $8M as he was in Winnipeg last season.

Wheeler might awaken from this brutal slump at some point however, but I can't see it lasting long. I think we've reached a stage where, due to his size plus mileage, Wheeler might have simply run out of gas. He should be unowned in nearly any league, except, I suppose, cap leagues with very deep benches where one could hold and hope. Good question!

Question #2 (from Kent)

Fill in the blank – if neither Victor Hedman nor Mikael Sergachev misses any games, the one who will end the season with more points will be ________? And same question, except this time for Morgan Rielly and John Klingberg.

Going into this season I'd have banked on the answers being Sergachev and Klingberg, but the pictures are definitely cloudier now.

I figured that the Leafs wouldn't have brought in Klingberg if not to deploy him in a manner that is conductive to scoring. Plus, like fellow new Leafs Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi, Klingberg bet on himself in the form of a one year contract. Sure enough, Kiingberg was on PP1 to start the season and his offensive zone starting percentage is among the highest of any d-men in the league at nearly 70%.

The issue is Klingberg has been squandering his opportunity. He's barely above one SOG per game and had half as many PPPts through eight games as Rielly, despite being on PP1 and Rielly logging most of his time on the second unit. I suspect the Leafs will do what they can to ignite Klingberg, and that likely includes continued offensively favorable deployment. If he loses his PP1 gig though, then things could get dicey, since the Leafs PP1 is among the most stacked of all NHL teams. Klingberg shooting so little is a worrisome development too, although perhaps not entirely shocking, since at closer glance his SOG rate per game had decreased a whopping five consecutive seasons going into 2023-24.

As for Rielly, past results are not future predictors; but he's had an off again on again productive trend, with this season – if trends continue – being one where he should be "on" again. Sure enough, his ice time is up quite a bit, although not surprisingly given Klingberg's OZ%, Rielly is starting fewer than 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone for the first for him since 2017-18, which, interestingly, marked his most productive season. None of Rielly's luck metrics are out of whack. It almost seems like Rielly picks and chooses when to prioritize scoring, and seemingly he's done so for this season.

In the end, Klingberg is being paid a decent amount and the Leafs likely want to try to continue to set him up for success; however, Kilingberg simply looks like he's no longer the player he once was and it likely will be only a matter of time before he's even more deemphasized. So I'm going with Rielly.

In Tampa, there was supposed to be little doubt Sergachev would be "the guy" in terms of deployment after he broke out big time. For one, he's now making more money than Hedman, who, although he spent parts of last season playing hurt, looked like he was slowing. But Hedman is back doing what he was doing before last season's hiccup. Meanwhile, Sergachev is getting PP scraps.

Still, I wouldn't call this an open and shut case for Hedman. Tampa realizes he's had a lot of mileage over his career and they need him at the top of his game come playoff time. As such, I'd expect to see a period of time where Sergachev gets re-elevated. The issue is when it would come and if it would leave enough time for Sergachev to pad his point total to be more than that of Hedman. There's also the matter of Hedman, through ten games, having as many PPPts as Sergachev despite more than double the PP time per game. And Hedman's SOG per game is on track to be his lowest since 2016-17, although that happened to be his second best season. Still, Sergachev isn't firing pucks on the net either, with a rate lower than Hedman's and one that was not even that high last season when he broke out.

With Hedman looking great in early going and Sergachev not really forcing the issue, I suspect Hedman will continue to get the better deployment. But, I believe that Sergachev will rise again this season, whether by his own doing or Hedman getting rested. Still, Hedman likely will have built a big enough buffer so as to end up outscoring Sergachev for the season. If I was a Hedman owner and he was still cruising by the new year, I might try to sell high, out of a fear that he will be throttled in order for him to be in the best shape possible for the playoffs. Good question!

Question #3 (from Eddie)

I noticed a good number of goalies in your Calder finalist poll last week, and it looks like at least a handful are poised to play perhaps 25+ games this season, which would be basically unprecedented for rookie goalies. What gives, and what do you see unfolding for each?

Sure enough there are more rookie netminders seeing regular action early this season than in years past. As for why, what it mainly boils down to is opportunity, plus the fact that most dipped their toes into NHL waters already last season.

First and foremost there's Devon Levi, who, prior to getting hurt, was seemingly handed the starter gig in Buffalo. What will unfold with Levi remains to be seen; however, he should continue to factor into the equation unless he looks out of place, which, if last season was any indication, shouldn't happen. Given Levi's age and the fact that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has looked much better and Eric Comrie still lurks, I would not be too shocked to see Levi deemphasized until/unless the others falter. Or to put it another way, Levi had his chance but getting hurt might have cost him, at least for 2023-24.

With Joseph Woll, he had more than bided his time in the minors and played well in limited duty during the 2022-23 season plus looked more than up to the task in the pressure-packed playoffs. Still, it said a lot for him to be named as back-up since Ilya Samsonov had never played in more than 44 games in any prior season. Woll could be the most impactful rookie goalie this season when all is said and done, as the Leafs have essentially hitched their wagon to him for at least a significant back-up role.

As for Lukas Dostal, given the long stretch of poor play from John Gibson, who also tends to get hurt from time to time and could even be shipped out of town, Dostal has a realistic chance at being able to play in the majority of Anaheim's games. And the Ducks have looked better than many would have expected, at least thus far, so he's very intriguing. Dostal also did quite well last season in terms of lack of really bad starts and quality starts, plus he had a SV% over .900 despite a GAA above 3.75, which no other goalie has managed dating back to at least 2000-01. Long story short, he passes the sniff test and could become the starter in Anaheim sooner rather than later.

Arvid Soderblom plays for a team with very low expectations and had a good amount of experience last season, not failing despite essentially having a glorified AHL team in front of him. For 2023-24, all that stands in the way of Soderblom and the starting gig is Petr Mrazek, who has not looked great when he's played in recent seasons, and is very much a band-aid boy. He too could log a lot of playing time.

Then there's Joel Hofer, who many presumed would transition into a larger role this season after Jordan Binnington used his ninth life. Binnington has somehow found his game, at least for the time being, meaning Hofer stays the back-up for now. But the winds could change in St. Louis, and the Blues likely would not hesitate to turn to him if need be.

Lastly there's Pyotr Kochetkov, where the reality is the team has two band-aid-boy goalies in Frederick Andersen and Antti Raanta, and they've had no qualms with Kochetkov stepping in as needed, but likely would prefer he log more time in the AHL until next season, when Raanta, a UFA to be, probably would be allowed to walk and Kochetkov anointed the back-up until Andersen's deal ends after 2024-25. While some might argue Kochetkov's time is – or should be – now, he likely will continue to be used only when needed, although his outlook might be the best of all come two years from now.

In the end, I like the situations for Woll and Dostal the best. I also think Hofer could be a buy low, or at least a good bit lower than those two. Soderblom might be worth a gamble, although his peripherals will be tough to stomach. Levi is a hold if you own him, yet I do worry he let his grip on the starter gig slip through his fingers, so he might be a decent sell option in one year leagues. Good question!

Question #4 (from Lou)

Despite a coaching change, Calgary looks terrible again. Are there any buy low opportunities or does everyone fall instead into the buyer beware category?

It looks like it has the making for another long, frustrating season in Calgary, both in real life hockey as well as fantasy. As I write this, they have zero plus players and just two skaters averaging more than a point per every other game. Still, I think all might not be lost for some.

Elias Lindholm is getting ample ice time, plus has added motivation to play well in order to punch his UFA ticket out of Calgary. Yes, there is only so much he can do if those around him are playing very poorly, and when he was part of a super line with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk in 2021-22 he still wasn't that amazing. But he has a good shot at 70 points I'd say. Although his numbers thus far aren't terrible, his owners might be worried simply because of the Calgary factor, allowing you to trade for him without having to give up a lot of value in return.

For the next player, I'll preface this by saying I realize past results don't dictate future outcomes; but Rasmus Andersson has seen his scoring rate increase for five straight seasons, even managing to do so last year when the team around him was gawdawful. I also like that even after he missed several games this season he was immediately reinstalled on PP1, showing that's his gig… period. For whatever reason poolies just don't believe in him, as in Yahoo drafts this season he was somehow being taken, on average, after the likes of Ryan Suter, Joan Brodin, Damon Severson, and Thomas Harley to name just a few. That, plus his lack of superb start, should make him readily available on the cheap.

Lastly there's Mikael Backlund. Yes, he's 34 and has the added weight of being team captain now, but this is a player who posted a scoring rate of 49-56 points in three of the last four seasons. Also, it looked like last season was going to be a loss for him until he finished very strong with 33 points in his last 38 contests. I suspect that once he adjusts to the captaincy he should elevate his game to familiar levels, making him a decent buy low, albeit one who doesn't have quite the potential impact of Lindholm or Andersson. Good question!

Question #5 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a Yahoo! 10 Team Keep 6, H2H league with categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO and rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA. I'm all about making sure I have the best core of six keepers, since I trust my ability to fill I the blanks via the draft. Going into this season I kept, for forwards and goalies, Tim Stutzle (C), Leon Draisaitl (LW), Brady Tkachuk (LW), Mitch Marner (RW), and Andrei Vasilevskiy. I'm concerned that Vas has started to take a turn for the worse, even though he's still quite good. I'm also tantalized by Jack Hughes. With these things in mind, what would you do in response to these trade offers: Stutzle for Igor Shesterkin; Stutzle, Tkachuk and Martin Necas for Jack Hughes, Aleksander Barkov, and Igor Shesterkin, and finally, Tkachuk for Hughes straight up?

I replied to this person privately, but since then I've started to look at this differently. Notably, I think there might be merit to owning both Shesterkin and Vas. After all, 4 of 11 categories are goalie-based and more of them start than any forward position. Plus, having them both allows for Vas to continue to provide wins, with Shesterkin to help with peripherals.

With these things in mind, I'd be open to a deal where you give Stutzle to get Shesterkin. But I think that Stutzle has too much future promise for it to be a straight up trade. If you're getting back Shesterkin and Hughes, as you would in the second deal – that I'd pounce. As I write this his injury situation is not yet known, but If you think of what Hughes brings to the table, it's basically Nathan MacKinnon minus the recurring injury issues. In fact, he might be better, as going back to 1980-81, there is only one other center who, by age 21, had a season with an average of 4.3 SOG per game and 1.25 points per game in 60+ contests – some dude named Wayne Gretzky. No one else….period. So grab that second deal.

Yes, I realize you'd be parting with Brady Tkachuk, who is morphing into a true scoring power forward before our eyes. But the thing about Tkachuk is his SOG rate seems to have maxed out, and he is not a very strong PP producer despite great man advantage deployment. Also, his value takes a bit of a hit in that you don't have PIM as a category. Yes, I realize Hughes is center only eligible, which is the deepest position in fantasy, and his FOW rate has been lousy; but even in that area he seems to be making a bit of progress, and it's something where he can and should improve.

In taking the second offer, that makes the third moot. But for the record I'd make that deal too, in case you aren't warm to the idea of keeping two goalies. If you do the second deal, your keepers going into next season would be Stutzle, Hughes, Draisaitl, Marner, Vas, and Shesterkin. And my guess is you will be able to find a taker for Vas at some point next season, to hopefully get you a keepable d-man. But do move forward with a plan to get Hughes at minimum, and Vas too if you agree it'd be a sensible move in view of your starters and categories. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Brendan)

In a keeper cap league, would you grab Pavel Mintyukov? My other d-men are Rasmus Dahlin, Evan Bouchard, Sean Durzi, Scott Perunovich and Noah Hanifin. I would drop Hanifin.

This season was supposed to be all about Jamie Drysdale's impact in Anaheim; however, he's injured yet again and that opened the door for Minyukov, who Anaheim likely projected to get a nine game cameo before being sent to juniors, to stick in the NHL all season.

How might he fare? Beware of recency bias, as the number of very young d-men who've been impactful of late is atypical. And let's not forget none of them – not Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, or Adam Fox – did so as a teen. In fact, dating back to 2000-01, there's been a total of just 24 d-men who played 60+ games in their first season as a teen and none posted even 50 points. And included among that list are the likes of Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen, Aaron Ekblad, Erik Karlsson and Morgan Rielly.

So it's far from a guarantee that Mintyukov can sustain the productive early season pace he's set. Far more likely is he comes back to earth, such as by hitting a rookie wall or not playing every game. But is the potential he represents enough to drop Hanifin? I'm a bit wary of doing so, as Hanifin had a pretty good season in 2022-23, including finishing with ten points in his final 16 games, despite the struggles of the Flames, plus is playing for a new contract, giving him a lot of incentive to up his scoring. Also, you have Perunovich, who for whatever reason the Blues seem hesitant to unleash.

Would Mintyukov be a keeper for you if you grabbed him? Or is that unclear? If you can play the long game with him, then that tilts the scales more toward taking a flier on him. But if you don't see him as keeper material, even if he continues to play well, I'd stick with what you have, as that lack of success from previous teen d-men, while not predictive of the future, is tough to ignore. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Paul)

Jake Middleton, Mikey Anderson, Brady Skjei and Jaccob Slavin are among the top-30 defensemen scorers, yet none takes the ice for, on average, more than 15 seconds per game on the power play. Will any of them use this as a springboard to get power play time, and if not, is it destined that each will come back to earth with a crashing thud?

Interesting observation. It prompted me to do some digging, and from 2000-01 through last season there were 1607 instances of defensemen tallying five or fewer PPPts despite playing 60+ games. Only a total of 12 averaged even a point per every other game or better, as all four of those you've mentioned have thus far this season. The best of all 1607 scored at a rate of 0.56 points per game, or basically a 46-point full season pace.

Before I say PP time is a must for defensemen to be even decent scorers, it is worth noting that all 12 of the instances of point per every other game scoring among the 1607 have occurred since 2015-16, so an average of three every two years. That could mean one, perhaps two, of these four might have the staying power to be able to score at a 41+ point rate throughout the season.

What are the ingredients to be able to accomplish this feat? Playing a lot of minutes, and for a team that racks up goals. It also doesn't hurt if the d-man is paired with an offensively-minded rearguard, with cases in point being Anderson (paired with Drew Doughty) and Slavin (paired with Brent Burns).

What should you do if you own one of these four? It's unrealistic to think you can sell high, as pretty much any poolie either would be skeptical about Anderson's or Middleton's value in view of their past performance, or, in the cases of slightly more proven players like Slavin or Skjei, would only give you what they're worth, which begs the question of why trade them? Instead, I'd say hold and hope that they can keep up some semblance of their early pace. Good question!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.