Ramblings: Point-per-game Sanheim, Jack Hughes scores in return, Sergachev Regaining Swagger

Ben Gehrels

2023-11-19

There was a full slate of games on Saturday night, so there is plenty to discuss. Let's get right to it.

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With 16 points in 17 games, Travis Sanheim is presently Philadelphia's leading scorer. I had been totally sleeping on this breakout. So as someone posted a week ago in the forums, "is he in the midst of a Morrisey-like breakout or is this just a hot start?" 

For the last five years, Sanheim has reliably posted between 22-35 points with a shot and a half, not quite one hit, and nearly two blocks per game. Solid block totals in particular, but he just never seemed to take that next step as a fantasy asset despite being a big scorer in junior. He had a ho-hum draft year back in 2014 but then marinated in the WHL for two more years, unlocking his scoring touch (133 in 119), which he then translated to the AHL in short order. But after a strong 35-point sophomore campaign in the NHL, he has never yet topped that total in the 4+ years since.

Well, would you look at that—Sanheim (6-4, 222 lbs) recently passed his 400-game Breakout Threshold and is seeing an out-of-the-blue (but actually predictable?) surge in production. A typical 25% boost on his previous career high suggests we will see a total in the mid-40s from him by the end of 2023-24. 

400-game BTs are tough. By then the player has been around forever and you don't think of them as having an extra gear. But hey, the Flyers are giving the man more than three times as much power play time as he ever saw before. While four PPP is not exactly blowing the doors down, the team as a whole has only managed six goals with the man advantage. Cam York, who is conceivably Sanheim's main competition for that PP1 slot, is currently sitting at zero.

Long story short, it is doubtful that Sanheim randomly posts a 70-point season, but 45-50 is not out of the question—especially if he keeps getting that PP time.

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Nice to see Sean Couturier finally playing again, and rocking a 71-point pace no less. There is a Flyer with a legitimate shot at 70. He is still shooting a bit less and winning fewer face-offs than he is accustomed to (49%), but I imagine both of those areas will slowly regress to his career norms. 

With the overtime winner against Vegas, Couturier is back to helping his beleaguered team find ways to win.

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Jack Eichel continues to rack up both shots and assists, which is a bit of an interesting combo. It is strange to see someone taking over four shots per game but still leaning heavy on helpers. 

Looking back on his career, though, Eichel has always been like this: tons of shots but consistently more assists than goals. His shooting percentage this year (9.5%) is only a smidge lower than his career mark (10.7%), which is on the lower end for high-end players. 

This shot volume + playmaking formula clearly works for him. He is back up above a point-per-game pace for the defending champs and potted another assist and three shots last night in the OT loss to Philly.

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With a three-point game against Edmonton, Mikhail Sergachev now has eight points in his last seven games. Back on track after a relatively slow start to the year in which he seemed to be missing some of his trademark offensive swagger. Unfortunately for Sergachev owners, Victor Hedman has clearly reclaimed Tampa's top PP rotation after ceding it to the youngster for long stretches in 2022-23.

But while it would be nice to see the 25-year-old rocking Hedman's current 87-point pace, he is now still pushing 60, which is excellent production from the back end. Expect his shot (1.72) and hit (0.72) rates to increase slightly over the coming days to fall more into line with his career norms. For those of you in Blocks leagues, his two blocks per game also provide solid peripheral value.

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Granted, Jonas Johansson has not posted great numbers (3.40 GAA, 0.896 SV%) to this point, but he has still provided Zero G adherents with an interesting asset basically for free off the wire. He is rocking the highest Quality Start percentage of his career (46.7%), and while Tampa has not looked like the same team so far this year without Andrei Vasilevskiy bailing them out, Johansson has at least provided poolies with decent volume stats: 30 saves per game, plus seven wins in 15 games. 

That's all found money. Not bad for a goalie known for being the subject of an infamous tweet basically a year ago about being "the worst goalie" a particular journalist had ever seen. 

There has not been a recent update on Vasilevskiy's progress on returning from shoulder surgery, but the initial estimate was that he would miss the first two months of the season. That would have him on track to be back between the pipes by early December at the earliest. Tampa will continue to ride Jonas until then.

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Another tough loss for the Oilers, who outshot the Lightning to a ridiculous degree in this one (43-24). Both their all-stars were held off the board too. It is very strange to see the best player in the game outside the top 100 in league scoring over a month and a half into the campaign. That's still just under a point-per-game pace, but McDavid is fresh off a 153-point season, so his standards are just on a different level.

Expect a fierce, torrential regression in the near future. You can only hold this guy down for so long. If this wasn't McDavid we were talking about, maybe there would be a slight buy low window here.

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Jack Hughes scored immediately upon returning from injury. Note my complete lack of surprise. Not his nicest goal, but it counts.

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That Rangers-Devils game saw one of the stranger calls in recent memory: Michael McLeod was initially assessed a five-minute major penalty for this hit on Ryan Lindgren behind the net, but then the call was reviewed and dismissed completely instead of being downgraded to a minor.

I am not exactly sure what the argument is here. McLeod did not leave his feet, which I imagine factored into the decision. Lindgren's head being down is also partly what led to the shoulder-on-chin contact, but still, it was surprising that the call went from a major to absolutely nothing.

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The prospect lover in me very much enjoyed watching Marco Rossi and Erik Brannstrom trading goals in the Wild-Senators game. Rossi continues to show off his incredible hand-eye coordination at the net front, tipping this Faber shot from the point.

Brannstrom's goal was an old-school slapper from the top of the circle after an incredible pass from Anton Forsberg allowed him to catch the Wild on a change. Sheldon Souray-on-a-shootout vibes from the young Swede.

This small sign of life is nice to see from him because Brannstrom has been impossible to roster so far this year. He was pointless before this goal, with weak peripherals to boot, and his pairing with Travis Hamonic has also been posting poor play-driving numbers. 

This game against Minnesota was his 200th career game, though, so maybe there is some point potential here down the stretch if he hits his Breakout? He has always had the skill and been a Hockey Prospecting darling, but it is hard to recommend him at this point—especially given that he is labouring behind both Jake Sanderson and Jakob Chychrun and is the kind of player who needs PP1 and offensive deployment to truly thrive.

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The Bruins took down the Canadiens, continuing to prove that their historic year in 2022-23 was no fluke. Even after losing their top two Centers, this team is 13-1-2 with a +24 goal differential. Impressive stuff.

Both Jeremy Swayman and last year's Vezina winner, Linus Ullmark, continue to be solid gold in fantasy. They consistently split starts and consistently dominate the competition. I am in the enviable position of owning both of them in one of my leagues, and they have been as consistent as I can remember any goalie tandem being in my fantasy career.

There are no big warning signs that this team is overachieving either. David Pastrnak is leading the charge with a 138-point pace, Brad Marchand is north of a point-per-game again after a relatively slow start, Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are both playing some of the best hockey of their career to buoy the Bruins down the middle. And of course they have Charlie McAvoy with 12 points in 12 games steering things from the back end.

I certainly wouldn't want my team to face Boston in June.

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Attention Philip Tomasino owners, your patience may be finally paying off. An assist last night on this Cole Smith goal brought the 22-year-old up to three points in nine games this year.

But beyond the production, there are signs that he is finally beginning to hit his stride at the NHL level—even though he is still about a full season away from hitting his Breakout Threshold.

Last year, he posted a 48-point pace after returning from his surprise AHL demotion to start the campaign. Hopefully that is the level of production we start to see from him more consistently moving forward. This is a young, emerging roster, and he figures to be a key part of it.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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