Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team dynasty league dressing 2C, 4W, 1F, 4D, 1G daily and categories of G (3), A (2), STP (1), SHOG (1), +/- (0.5), SOG (0.2), Hits (0.2), Blk (0.2), FOW (0.1); W (5), SO (2), Sv (0.2), GA (-1), who is the better own Drake Batherson or Jordan Kyrou?

Looking first at Batherson, while he's already 25 he's also not far past his breakout threshold, meaning he still could improve. However, I can't shake the feeling that he should already be better than he is now, suggesting, in turn, that he might be less likely to indeed improve. For starters, last season he was successful on the PP, plus saw his scoring reach new heights. But he was a very minus player, which, while a deemphasized category nowadays in fantasy, can matter in the eyes of a player's real-life situation. For Batherson, it appears to have put a ceiling on his ice time, which is on pace to drop for the second straight season, when, if anything, it should be climbing at this stage of his career.

Also, his IPP, which in his first full season was a very impressive 73.9%, has dropped in each of the past two campaigns and is on pace to fall yet again, hovering barely above 60%. The same largely holds true on the PP, where his IPP was 83.3% in 2020-21 to go along with his great IPP overall, but it too has since lagged, ranging from 55-60%. In short, he's playing with talented forwards but he's not finding ways to factor into the scoring. If we were one or maybe even two years removed from 2020-21 I could see hopes of a rebound; but here we are in the third season after that campaign and his IPPs are lagging yet again.

Still, Batherson likely will continue to command a top-six spot, which, on a team like Ottawa, will likely lead to a floor of 65 points. But I'm hard pressed to picture Batherson becoming a point per game player given what we've seen of late, plus his ice time and deployment, which is seeing him take the ice less often in the offensive zone than last season, when it was worse than the prior season. Yet another troublesome trend.

As for Kyrou, if I'm going to mention Batherson being a very minus player last season, I certainly can't ignore that Kyrou was even worse. Yet unlike Batherson, Kyrou's team appears to be very forgiving, with Kyrou seeing more ice time than his prior season, something that has occurred in every season since he landed in the NHL. And that's not Kyrou's only uninterrupted trend, as his SOG rate is up this season to 3.8 per game, or more than a full SOG per game better than what Batherson is doing this season, and having more than doubled since 2020-21. It does not even stop there, as the percentage of his team's PP minutes that he sees is up again, with it too having risen ever season in his career thus far.

Looking at Kyrou's SOG rate, it's 12.2/60 minutes. If it stays that high, it'd put him in the top ten or 15 among all forwards, with those ahead of him all but two players ahead of him averaging at point per game or higher this season, or having done so previously.

Yes, Kyrou's IPP's dropped last season and are on pace to do so again; however, he's never finished a full season with an overall IPP lower than 74.2%, making his barely 60% figure for 2023-24 thus far seem very low for him, and likely to rise before all is said and done with the campaign, raising his scoring rate in the process.

Although Batherson is in a good spot on the Sens, he doesn't seem to be cut from a scorer's cloth, whereas Kyrou's trends are better, he shoots the puck more, and he should see his scoring rate increase once his IPP, which has always been 74.2% or better, rebounds. Of the two, I like Kyrou as an own now and going forward.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team weekly H2H keep ten league with daily rosters and stats of G, A, PPPts, SHP, GWG, SOG, +/-, PIM, W, SV%, GAA, SO, a GM has the following roster:

C: Kuzy, Hischier, Bedard, Newhook, Rossi
LW: Ehlers, Perron, Iafallo
RW: Bratt, Caufield, Marchessault, Atkinson
D: Chychrun, Sergachev, Toews, Carlson, Boqvist
G: Hart, Kuemper, Raanta, Mrazek
Minors: Tomasino, Primeau, Dorofeyev, Evans, Phillips, Greig, Bourque, Benson, Simashev, Reinbacher, Spence, Soderstrom, Olausson, Eklund, Neighbours, Silvos, Zhigalov, Bourgualt, Askarov, Brisson, Kulich, Jarventie, Samoskevich, Pinelli, C Savoie, Stankoven, Suzdalev

What pitch should they make to try and acquire William Nylander?

There's a lot to like about what Nylander has done thus far. He has a vice-like grip on a spot on one of the best PP1s in the league, and he's gone from someone where you wondered if he was being propped up by others, namely John Tavares, to being confident he's an offensive catalyst. In short, he's arrived. But in doing so, he's likely driven up his cost to the point where it will be difficult to get him without paying through the nose.

I think if a deal can be crafted for him, it's worthwhile. His SOG rate, IPPs and secondary assist rate all suggest he's truly elite Although his owner is probably turning cartwheels to see this happening, that doesn't mean seeds of doubt can't be attempted to be planted in their mind as to whether Nylander can continue at this pace, when in truth it does look like he can.

I think a deal likely would need to include Caufield. Don't get me wrong – what we're seeing from Caufield suggests he's likely going to be a special player too; however, I fear he will be too goal-centric to become more than a 90-point guy, if even that. Yes, in this league, with G, GWG, and SOG as categories, those favor Caufield, but you have to give in order to get, and I'd give Caufield to get Nylander and not bat an eyelash in doing so.

The question is whether another player would need to be added to get a deal done. I'm not entirely sure that would be necessary; however, if it was, I'd consider Carlson, who still is a name but who plays for a team clearly on the decline and who might never be quite the same after his injury last season. Losing him would hurt now, but Nylander will cushion the blow and the team can also try to make another deal to shore up its D. To that end, I'd consider trading Iafallo, who, once Gabe Villardi returns, I predict will come back to earth. But his numbers look good now and could land a decent rearguard in return.

Topic #3 – Who will be best over the next 3-5 years in points only: Nick Robertson, Anton Lundell or Alexander Holtz?

All three are intriguing, yet also concerning. They're all also roughly the same age so that won't factor into the equation. But Robertson is undersized, meaning he could need until game 400 to fully break out. That is a definite factor.

Let's start with Lundell. Whereas his rookie season saw him play a lot in the bottom six and on the PK, but still manage to score well, that was also the campaign when the Panthers became the first team in 25 years to average over four goals a game, so a rising tide was lifting quite a few boats, including, based on what we've since seen, Lundell's. Amazingly, this season he's on a scoring line, playing mainly with Matthew Tkachuk, but the result has been not great for either player, suggesting it won't last. And although Lundell's PK time has shrunk with each season, making my early comparison to Jordan Staal perhaps no longer applicable, he's not making the most of his chances. Keep in mind all this has happened while Florida's normal second line center Sam Bennett has been hurt. With Lundell failing to capitalize, it likely means a trip back to the bottom six for Lundell once Bennett is healthy. As for the future, I do like that his IPP this season is over 70%, this despite playing alongside more talented players. The issue though is 70% of fewer goals isn't going to cut it. Still, I think he has the makings of a top six center, with perhaps a ceiling of 60-70 points.

Holtz needs a new team. For whatever reason, New Jersey has kept the training wheels on him and the results have been subpar. Granted, this season he's fared better but is still seeing limited duty and not getting chances to line up alongside top tier talent. My hunch is that when New Jersey seeks to ready itself for a major playoff run, be it this season or next, they will deal Holtz and he will get a fresh start on a new team. Three-to-five years from now he could be in a much better position to produce. Then again, he might just sputter out, as it's far from a lock that he'll find his game. He's a risk/reward play, with the lowest floor of the three players but perhaps the highest ceiling.

Robertson did not play much in the past two seasons, and I mean at any level. That isn't good for a player who, as I noted, will need experience due to his size. He has not looked out of place in Toronto thus far, and next season the team should have two winger spots open with the likely departures of Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi, plus who knows what will happen with the now elite William Nylander, who's also set to be a UFA. Even still, that would mean a spot in the NHL for Robertson, which will be a start but which also might not lead to true dividends until close to five years from now due to his size.

To reiterate, the pictures surrounding each are both incomplete and have question marks. If I'm a rebuilding team looking for a home run, I grab Holtz and hope. Teams playing the long game also could snag Robertson, who could do better sooner and not be much worse than Holtz at the five-year mark, or perhaps even better. Essentially, Robertson has a higher floor than Holtz and maybe not much lower of a ceiling. Lundell I worry will be a middle or bottom six guy, as he has had a great opportunity this season thus far which has show he can factor into scoring often but perhaps not create enough scoring. He's the near-term choice, but in three to five seasons he'll likely be behind one or both of the other two.

Topic #4 – A GM drafted Torey Krug hoping for resurgence, but that hasn't happened, at least not yet. Does it make sense to drop him for John Klingberg, or is that trying to solve one problem with a similar problem?

As I write this, the two are separated by one point, but whereas Klingberg stormed out of the gate and has since gone ice cold, Krug was pointless in his first ten games and then tallied six points in his next five.

In truth, while neither Klingberg is this bad nor Krug this good, I worry more about Klingberg. He is being paid a decent amount, pretty much ensuring he'll get ample opportunities; however, even before he missed time he was taken of PP1. He struggled this badly despite just under two-thirds of his shifts starting in the offensive zone, which, if it sounds high for a d-man is because it is. The other worrisome factor when looking at Klingberg is his SOG total is equal to his games played total. Yes, Klingberg's SOG rate had been on a five season decline; but for it to drop from 1.7 last season to just 1.0 this year is very troublesome, especially since he's set to be a UFA this summer, meaning he needs to show he's still a viable offensive rearguard in order to get a decent deal. So far though, he's been downright lousy, and I'm unsure he still has what it takes to see his numbers rise again, especially since Morgan Rielly appears to be keeping to his recent bad season, good season pattern, with this being the good season.

Krug was downright awful last season and for sure is a shell of his former self. Although it appears his ice time is up nicely, the truth is he's seeing time on the PK, which he's literally never done in any capacity in his entire career. But for the Blues to press him into that duty shows they still consider him part of their big picture. It hasn't affected his PP time, nor has the fact he hasn't tallied a single PPPt as yet. That last data point though is of concern, since the Blues have Justin Faulk and Scott Perunovich who could be installed on PP1 instead. Even as Krug struggled early his man advantage minutes didn't drop. What has dropped, and not just in view of his PK duty, is Krug's OZ%, which last season was 73.4% but so far for 2023-24 is under 50%. While that is a sign that the Blues think he can be more complete, I do worry about his ability to produce well if that doesn't rise, recent hot streak notwithstanding.

I'd prefer to own neither of these two; however, if forced to choose it comes down to whether there is hope that Klingberg can snap out of his funk versus whether Krug can produce despite substantially worse deployment other than on the PP. I think Krug is the safer bet, meaning he has a higher floor; however, Klingberg, given his team and that he's playing for his NHL career, could ignite and do great. For a team that already has Krug, I'd hold unless they have an appetite for risk, in which case grab Klingberg.

Topic #5 –In an eight team keeper with skater categories of G, A, Hits, SOG, SHG, and GWG, should a Noah Dobson owner trade him for Zach Werenski and Brandt Clarke? His other defensemen on his main roster are Drysdale, McAvoy, Sanheim, Dunn, Sergachev, York, Power and his defensemen on his farm are Dragicevic, Edvisson, Jiricek, Harley, Heinola, Luneau, Morrow, Nikishin, Simashev.

After it started to look like Dobson would not make a leap into more elite territory, he's begun the 2023-24 campaign with what would easily be a career best scoring rate. Has anything changed? Let's dig deeper to find out.

First off, it's not difficult that his SH% is well above his career rate, likely having led to at least a couple more points. Beyond that, his PP scoring rate is considerably higher than his best season, and sure enough his PPIPP, as I write this is 87.5%, meaning he'd tallied a PPPt on seven of the eight PPGs scored while he was on the ice. Now Dobson has always had a knack for scoring on the man advantage, with a PP IPP once over 75%; but this is above and beyond anything that even he could sustain. So those two factors alone likely account for about 4-5 extra points, which, if he didn't have, he'd be right near his usual scoring rate.

Still, Dobson is shooting more and seeing a lot more ice time without a huge spike in PK duty. It looks like the Isles are treating him more like a "the guy" type of d-man, whereas before they looked upon him as an offensive catalyst but not a top pairing stalwart. More minutes will mean more points in the normal course, so that is key. As such, although he's undeniably benefitted from some unsustainable good luck, his added ice time likely will help him push for 60 points not only this season but others ahead, especially since he still hasn't even hit the 400-game breakout threshold normally associated with a defenseman.

Turning to Werenski, his lure in this league is he's more proven, plus he's a goal scorer and high-volume shooter, both of which are keys. In fact, by tallying 11+ goals in each of his first four seasons by age 22, he put himself in some pretty fine company, namely Bobby Orr, Phil Housley, Larry Murphy, and Ray Bourque, each of whom had at least two 80+ point seasons in their career. Yes, he plays for Columbus, which will hurt his output; however, he's doing pretty well so far this season despite his team's struggles. He really is made for this scoring format.

On top of Werenski the deal would land Clarke, who, with the offseason trade of Sean Durzi, is the clear heir apparent to Drew Doughty on a Kings team that is poised to be very good for the near term and beyond. He's playing great in the AHL, and not being rushed to the big club. And he too seems like he'll have goal-scoring prowess.

If this was me, I take the deal. Dobson is very good; however, his output thus far is not sustainable, whereas Werenski is essentially his equal, plus Clarke might just be a future star in a couple of years.

Topic #6 – In an 11 team, keep 11, points only league, what is the outlook for Quinton Byfleid? How good can he be, and how soon?

Don't look now, but he's already pretty darn good. The Kings were careful about not rushing Byfield and then, when he did arrive in the NHL, placing him in circumstances likely to lead to his success, namely a spot on the top line, where he's gelled with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Yes, Byfield has yet to penetrate PP1; however, one has to think it'll be only a matter of time for him to do so, given how he's performing and his size.

Is Byfield being elevated at least somewhat by Kopitar and Kempe? With an IPP that stands a bit below 60% as I write this, it would be fair to say yes. But so what? He's only going to get better, while Kopitar will start to slow. Kempe is Kempe, a goal-scoring point producer. After all he's not even at 200 games, and, as a larger player, may not fully hit his stride until he's closer to the 400-game mark. In other words, he's doing better than would have been expected and whether or not it's due to his linemates or not is of no consequence if he's stapled to that line.

Still, his SOG rate isn't superb, and for the second season in a row his PDO is quite high. What is good to see though is he has three PPPts despite taking the ice on PP2, showing that he should be a force with the man advantage in due course.

Do I think Byfield will continue at this pace for all of 2023-24? Most likely not given how little he shoots and his lack of PP1 deployment. But 55+ points is well within reason. Sooner or later he will start getting more minutes, including all-important ones on the PP. Although his SOG rate is indeed low, a lot of that has to do with him taking games off, as thus far he has more games with zero SOG than with 3+, which I can't see continuing indefinitely.

After this season, I'd expect modest improvements until he's able to come more into his own. Ultimately, I believe he has it within him, given what we've seen so far, to be a 90+ point player. But don't look for that to happen for at least 2-3+ seasons, if not longer.

Topic #7 – In a one year league with skater categories of G, A, PPP, SHP, SOG, HIT, BLK, a team needs to activate Aaron Ekblad, but to do so they have to drop a defenseman. Who should it be: Dougie Hamilton, Mike Matheson, Pavel Mintyukov, Morgan Rielly, Darnell Nurse?

Let's get the easy part out of the way. It will not be Hamilton, Rielly, or Nurse, as they are too valuable and proven. That leaves Matheson and Mintyukov.

Matheson has not only picked up where he left off last season, but if anything looks even better. He's come a long way from poolies wondering what Florida was thinking when they inked him to an eight year $39M contract after he'd played 84 career games with 17 points to show for it. He is thriving on the PP, shooting a ton, and chipping in with a hit and two blocks per game.

Mintyukov has been no slouch either, with double digit points in his first 14 games. But he's hit a bit of a wall already, and keep in mind this came with no Jamie Drysdale in his midst. And this being a one year league is important since if you look at rookie teen d-men dating back to the 2000-01 season, there have been 28 who played 60+ games, with not a single one, including the likes of Rasmus Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen, Aaron Ekblad, Drew Doughty, Zach Werenski, Victor Hedman, Morgan Rielly, and Erik Karlsson, who either hit 50 points or scored at a 50-point full season pace. And while yes, past results don't predict future outcomes, given this body of evidence and Mintyukov already looking like he's cooling, I think he's pretty easily the drop out of this group.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.