Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to bring up two players that have disappointed their fantasy managers so far, but who are bound to improve based on underlying stats. These players may be great buy-low candidates if you don't own them.

The statistics mentioned do not include Sunday's games.

Mika Zibanejad – 19 GP, 4 G, 10 A, 14 PTS, 6 PPP, 52 SOG, 6 Hits, 16 Blks

The first basic stat we can look at to view how "unlucky" a player has been is their shooting percentage compared to prior seasons. Mika is shooting at a 7.69% rate, far lower than his past five seasons, where he's been in the 12-19 range. His shooting percentage is very likely to regress back to at least 12% for the season. A few more goals will find their way into the net.

We can also look at Individual Points Percentage (IPP) compared to prior seasons as a "luck" metric. This is the percentage of goals that this player gets a point on out of all goals scored when they are on the ice. Mika's prior seasons have been in the 65-80 range in terms of IPP. He is currently sitting at 42.4% this season. Many more goals are being scored without his help. This IPP number is bound to regress back to his norms and he should see more assists as this regression comes.

Another stat I am interested lately as a "luck" metric for shots on goals is how much a player is missing the net. We can look at percentage of unblocked shot attempts that hit the net and compare it to prior seasons. With Zibanejad, he has lacked a bit in the shots on goal department this season. A big reason for this is due to 41.6% of his unblocked shot attempts missing the net. This number has been around 30% for him in the past 12 seasons. His total shots are down, but his shot attempts are still within his normal ranges. He is just missing the net at a much higher rate than normal. This should also return to his norms and he'll get back to averaging 3 shots on goal game.

If Zibanejad were to have these three "luck" metrics similar to his averages, his stat line would read like so: 19 GP, 8 G, 11 A, 19 PTS, 6 PPP, 63 SOG, 6 Hits, and 16 Blks. I fully expect Zibanejad to return to this pace and be the top 40 fantasy asset he was drafted to be.

Andrei Svechnikov – 11 GP, 0 G, 7 A, 7 PTS, 2 PPP, 22 SOG, 23 Hits, 3 Blks

Svechnikov started the season on the IR and hasn't really rewarded fantasy managers who drafted him. Looking at his shooting percentage, a shooting percentage of 0% is obviously too low. Not much to say there, he will score some goals this season. He's hovered around 11% in prior seasons. He's only averaged 2 shots on goal per game this season. Last season he had much more at 3.2. We can look to those unblocked shot attempts that are missing the net. He has missed 45.2% of his unblocked shot attempts. Like Zibanejad, this number is much higher than his numbers in prior seasons, hovering in the 27-33 range. Also like Zibanejad, his shots on goal are lower, but his number of shot attempts are still similar to past seasons. Those missed shots should start hitting the net.

The third stat I mentioned above, IPP, is not abnormally high for Svech. His IPP of 77.7 is actually quite high for him. This explains a higher rate of assists compared to prior seasons which may come back down a bit. One other stat I must mention for Svechnikov is his hits rate. While it seems as though hits (or the counting of hits) has decreased substantially throughout the league, Svechnikov continues to bang, collecting 2 hits per game on average. This makes him very valuable in multicat leagues as a scorer who can provide peripheral value.

If the two abnormally high luck metrics were to be within Svechnikov's norms, his stat line would look something like this: 11 GP, 3 G, 7 A, 10 PTS, 3 PPP, 30 SOG, 23 Hits, 3 Blks. With those hits, this pace would make him a top 50 fantasy asset. I would buy low now if you can.

Honorable Mentions

A few other players have really suffered in the shots on goal department due to abnormally high rates of their unblocked shot attempts missing the net.

Vincent Trocheck has missed 55% of his unblocked shot attempts. He is usually around the 30% mark. His 1.68 shots on goal per game should increase.

Even with all his goals, Sam Reinhart has missed 41% of his unblocked shot attempts, suggesting that he should get a few more shots on goal.

Matt Boldy has missed 40% of his unblocked shot attempts. This should return to 30%. His shooting percentage is also abnormally low. I would expect Boldy to return to a 30 goal, 200 shot pace.

Kevin Fiala has missed 38% of his unblocked shot attempts. His prior seasons has seen this number quite low in the mid 20s. He's upped his shot attempt rate lately and should see more of them hit the net.

Hope you enjoyed! See you next week.

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