Ramblings: Copley, Ersson, Ingram Shutout Wins; Hischier Returns; Kuzmenko Scratched Again (Nov 26)
Ian Gooding
2023-11-26
In allowing seven goals to the Rangers, Linus Ullmark was tagged with his first really bad start of the season. That being said, he had to face 40 shots, which tied for the highest number of shots faced in a single game for him this season. I was more confident than most on Ullmark this season, and so far he has delivered. He has posted wins and quality starts in seven of his 10 games, with his 70 QS% one of the highest in the league among goalies with a similar number of starts. Drafting Ullmark meant knowing he would split starts with Jeremy Swayman while being confident that the Bruins wouldn't fall off too much from last season. The timeshare has gone according to plan, while the Bruins have retained their spot at the top of the Atlantic Division.
Despite the Bruins losing big to the Rangers, Charlie Coyle scored a pair of goals. He now has a five-game point streak with four goals in his last four games. In addition, he is shooting the puck more with four shots in each of his last three games. Coyle's recent surge has led to a 0.95 PTS/GP pace (19 PTS in 20 GP), by far the highest in his career. The fact that his shooting has increased is good, but he is riding a few unsustainable metrics, including a 23.1 SH%, 3.3 PTS/60, and 70.0 Sec Asst %. His even-strength and power-play deployment hasn't been with the big guns such as Pastrnak and Marchand. The Bruins do have a favorable schedule next week with four games including two light days, which could make Coyle worth a weekly league add.
In the Rangers win, Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin each chipped in three points – two goals and an assist from Kreider, and a goal and two assists from Panarin.
Jacob Trouba only received a $5000 fine for trying to dislodge Trent Frederic's head from the rest of his body. That's a slap on the wrist to an NHL player. Isn't it called the Department of Player Safety?
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The team with the most favorable schedule next week might be Columbus. The Blue Jackets play four games, with three of them at home – all of which are on light days. The downside is having to face Boston twice, but at least you'll get the volume. The Jackets haven't had a memorable season, but Adam Fantilli (25% rostered in Yahoo) or Kirill Marchenko (7% rostered in Yahoo) might be the kind of players to target. This might even be a good time to check if someone in your league dropped Johnny Gaudreau or Patrik Laine, whose advanced stats both suggest that better days might be ahead. You could even get a head start and add one of these players right away, since the Jackets also have a Sunday game (if your league doesn't force you to wait until the next day to use a player).
For a sneak peek at next week's schedule, check out the Schedule Planner on Frozen Tools.
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Pheonix Copley was hardly tested, stopping all 18 shots in picking up a shutout against Montreal. Copley has now posted back-to-back wins and quality starts after a rough start to the season that saw him post really bad starts in three of his first four games. Cam Talbot has managed to stay healthy while playing extremely well, which has kept Copley on the bench for much of the season.
Speaking of Copley, I went completely Zero G on one of my teams with him, Ville Husso, James Reimer, and Anton Forsberg as my goalies. So far it's worked, as I've gone 6-0 and am currently in a tight battle this week as I try for 7-0. None of these goalies have been that impressive, with Reimer being the best of the bunch in limited duty. My strategy has worked because the league doesn't use separate goaltending head-to-head categories – just total points by team. It doesn't matter who gets the points, as long as I get the points.
With a pair of goals, Trevor Moore now has two points in each of his last three games. As well, his 11 goals leads a Kings team that looks ready to be a Western Conference power. This probably shouldn't be considered the norm, as Moore is shooting 20% and has some other higher-than-expected analytics. He is maintaining 2.8 SOG/GP, similar to last season and does not play on the top line or on the top power play. To throw even more cold water on the idea of adding him, the Kings play only two games next week.
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Nico Hischier returned to the Devils' lineup on Saturday after missing nearly a month with an upper-body injury. Hischier scored a goal and added an assist, both of which were in a first period where the Devils scored four times. The Devils aren't where they probably hoped they'd be in the standings, so maybe the return of their captain will provide a boost. Get Hischier back into your lineup.
Vitek Vanecek faced just 12 shots in what was a lethargic effort from the Sabres. In allowing two goals, that qualifies as a really bad start in spite of the win. Vanecek has been tagged with really bad starts in three of his past six games, so his play has been concerning. Both Vanecek and Akira Schmid have goals-against averages of above three and save percentages of below .900, so neither goalie is standing out, even though Vanecek is still receiving about two-thirds of the starts.
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Matthew Knies has four goals in his past eight games, including a goal on Saturday. He's mainly been on a line with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews during that time, which is about as good as it gets for potential linemates. Some of Knies' advanced stats seem a bit high, such as shooting percentage (24.0%). However, I could be talked into recommending him as a pickup because of who his linemates are and his upside.
Speaking of Knies' linemates, Matthews has registered points in just one of his last six games, while Marner has points in just two of his last seven games. I don't expect them to remain cold for long, but both Matthews and Marner have been held without a point in their last two games.
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If you were hoping for goals in the Islanders/Flyers game, you were out of luck. Both Ilya Sorokin and Samuel Ersson were credited with shutouts, but only Ersson received a win because the Flyers won in a shootout. This doesn't seem fair for Sorokin in particular, who stopped all 40 shots he faced in regulation and overtime. Only the Capitals and Sharks have averaged fewer goals per game than the Islanders, so Sorokin's ability to register wins is being compromised by the team in front of him. Sorokin has just five wins in 13 games.
Ersson, meanwhile, isn't the starter for the Flyers, but he is hot with four wins and five quality starts in his last five games. He has turned it around after really bad starts in each of his first three games. Ersson should now at least be in the conversation as a spot starter if you need one.
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Andrei Kuzmenko was a healthy scratch for the second consecutive game. Rick Tocchet didn't want to mess with the lineup that won 5-1 in Seattle the night before. This is an example of the disconnect between fantasy hockey, where the objective is to earn points, and real-life hockey, where players are judged by their ability to defend as much as their ability to score. I'll still hold on to Kuzmenko, knowing he'll be placed in the best situations to score. We knew that regression would be coming after a 38-goal season where his shooting percentage was an astronomical 26.8%. Don't expect him to reach anywhere close to that this season, since he has just three goals with one-quarter of the season now complete.
Did the Canucks lose to the Sharks? Yeah, they did. My father is a huge Canucks fan, and in his words, the game was "humiliating." That is why we should expect Kuzmenko to be back in the lineup on Tuesday against Anaheim.
With an assist on Saturday, Quinn Hughes extended his point streak to 11 games. Hughes and Cale Makar are the only two defensemen with 30 points, while the next-highest scoring defensemen have 22 points. There's still a lot of season left, but so far the Norris seems like a two-horse race.
Brock Boeser scored a pair of goals on Saturday, giving him 15 goals. That ties him with Nikita Kucherov for the league lead in goals. Boeser is taking a half shot per game more than he was last season, but his shooting percentage is at 23.8%. I'd expect the goal scoring to cool off a bit, but he's got enough in the bank to reach 30 for the first time in his career, Barring injury, of course, since he is a Band-Aid Boy.
Remember when Mikael Granlund was universally rostered in fantasy leagues? He scored his first goal in 31 games on Saturday, and he made it look like he scores goals more often than that.
Granlund may have disappeared off the fantasy radar, but he has logged at least 21 minutes in each of his last six games. Maybe, just maybe, you'll get something out of him this season. I'm not sure I'd run to the waiver wire just yet, though.
Mike Hoffman is in a similar situation to Granlund. He scored again on Saturday, giving him six goals in his last six games. He obviously won't continue to score a goal per game, but he might be better than you thought since he'll receive opportunities that he wouldn't with other teams.
The Sharks are an interesting team stats-wise. And by interesting, I don't necessarily mean fantasy desirable. They have averaged a league-worst 1.5 goals per game, with all other teams averaging at least two goals per game. Tomas Hertl leads the Sharks with 16 points, but no other Sharks have more than eight points. The Sharks at least look better than they did earlier this season, so we could start to see a few of their players beyond Hertl become fantasy relevant.
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In stats that you might have a hard time believing, Connor Ingram has seven wins in 11 games. Yes, he plays for the Coyotes. Ingram stopped all 34 shots he faced in the Coyotes' 2-0 win in Vegas, which like the Canucks/Sharks game, probably wasn't a result you expected. Ingram and Karel Vejmelka have basically been alternating starts, but Ingram has clearly been outplaying Vejmelka. You probably don't want to rush out to add a Coyotes goalie, but Ingram is probably the goalie to roster on this team at the moment.
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Matthews has been godawful the last two weeks. Hopefully some home cooking straightens him out…
Alexander Holtz going on a heater