Fantasy Hockey Poll: Selecting Which Hot Starts are Sustainable
Rick Roos
2023-11-29
Every season skaters storm out of the gate, putting smiles on the faces of those who were smart enough to draft them, but also giving the same poolies back of the mind concerns as to whether they can keep up their unexpectedly better pace. Whose starts for 2023-24 thus far are the real deal, versus players just enjoying a stretch of strong play that won't be sustainable? Your votes get to decide!
I've put together a list of skaters who, thus far at least, are outperforming how they were expected to produce, but not by so much so as for it to be impossible to envision them keeping up their paces. Your task is to vote for any and all who you believe will finish the season at or above their current scoring pace. To be clear they don't have to finish with as many points as they're currently on track to score, only to stay at or above that pace, meaning they can miss games due to injury but still qualify.
The 20 voting choices are listed below in alphabetical order, with their current (i.e., games that have been played through November 24th) full season scoring pace in parentheses. Something to keep in mind when looking at the list is if you don't see a particular skater here, it's because either I felt that he wasn't exceeding expectations by enough, or he was exceeding them by too much to be foreseen as sustainable. In short, I wanted skaters where – at least to me – the answer wasn't a foregone conclusion. As per usual, a link to cast your votes will appear at the end of the column.
Brock Boeser (Scoring Pace = 86)
A disappointment since his impressive rookie campaign, Boeser is still not getting the credit that other Canucks are, as poolies figure he's being boosted by the stellar play of those around him. But Boeser was once a top prospect and has always had to contend with injuries, so perhaps he had this within him all along?
Evan Bouchard (Scoring Pace = 82 points)
A very popular pick for having a breakout 2023-24 campaign after his stellar showing in the playoffs, sure enough Bouchard is putting up top tier numbers despite the Oilers not playing up to expectations. Does Bouchard have it in him to do this well over the grind of a full season? Tough to say, but we'll soon find out.
Jesper Bratt (Scoring Pace = 105 points)
He's slowed since Jack Hughes' injury, but in a way, that almost legitimizes Bratt's production rate, since with Hughes, Bratt is a scoring machine. The two should see plenty of ice time together the rest of the way, and Bratt's scoring could even take a jump from where he is now.
Quinton Byfield (Scoring Pace = 73 points)
Whether his numbers are due to his own talent or being carried by his linemates, Byfield is exceeding expectations. But without a spot on PP1, and LA still not fully seen as an offensive powerhouse, can he maintain this pace at this stage of his career?
Noah Dobson (Scoring Pace = 69 points)
The Isles are scoring a bit more, but not so much as to put Dobson in this scoring stratosphere. This issue is his SH% and IPPs are concerning, yet he's always been considered very talented, so he might just have it in him to keep up this pace.
Filip Forsberg (Scoring Pace = 103 points)
Raise your hand if you thought Forsberg's 2021-22 scoring rate was a by-product of him about to be paid as a UFA (waits for hands to go down). Either way, the fact is he's playing at an even higher level this season thus far, and that's despite a very fat wallet. But can it last on a Preds team where high scoring forwards have not been a regular occurrence?
Brandon Hagel (Scoring Pace = 86 points)
Like Byfield, it doesn't matter if he's great or his deployment is great, so long as it stays the way it is. If Hagel continues to succeed, while his elite linemates excel as well, look for him to stay on that top unit indefinitely, making it so his lack of PP1 deployment isn't consequential.
Mathieu Joseph (Scoring Pace = 82 points)
With the logjam of forward talent in Ottawa who would've figured Joseph would find his way into the mix? But he might be poised to be to the Sens what Hagel is to the Lightning, although unlike Hagel he doesn't have a stepping stone 2022-23 to point to, making it more difficult to see him keeping up this rate.
Evander Kane (Scoring Pace = 73 points)
After the emergence of Zach Hyman and Kane looking at best indifferent last season after coming back from injury, he's been reignited for 2023-24. He has the Byfield/Hagel/Joseph issue in that he's not on PP1, so it does beg the question of whether it can last.
Adrian Kempe (Scoring Pace = 91 points)
It might not have been difficult to predict Kempe would be doing better than last season, what with his scoring rate having climbed in each of the last four campaigns. But how much better is a bit of a surprise, especially if my recent findings are to believed.
Chris Kreider (Scoring Pace = 77 points)
On the one hand, this isn't uncharted territory for Kreider; however, his career best 78-point-pace in 2021-22 was so far and above not only his prior best but also what he did in 2022-23. I think some skepticism is warranted.
Wyatt Johnston (Scoring Pace = 69 points)
The future was already bright for Johnston, yet perhaps not this bright this soon. But he looks like the real deal thus far for Dallas, who let's not forget play their top two lines and PPs closely enough in terms of ice time for Johnston to be able to keep up this level of production.
Mason McTavish (Scoring Pace = 86 points)
Trevor who? All the hype entering 2023-24 surrounded the widely heralded Zegras, who has struggled out of the gate, while McTavish has stepped up in a big way. While many felt the pair could eventually form a "one-two" punch, it seems like perhaps too much too soon for McTavish to be sustainable.
Trevor Moore (Scoring Pace = 77 points)
The depth of scoring in LA, and the team's willingness to truly role out three lines, has led to Moore pacing for a career best. To go from a less than point per every other game 2022-23 to this is tough to envision lasting long term.
Ryan O'Reilly (Scoring Pace = 78 points)
While he did look reinvigorated for the Leafs, who'd have guessed ROR would be an offensive force for the Preds? But with a very low OZ%, and at his age, one has to wonder is he has what it takes to keep this up over the long haul of the season.
Cole Perfetti (Scoring Pace = 69 points)
As envisioned, Perfetti has stepped into the spot formerly occupied by Pierre-Luc Dubois, and is producing at a similar rate. But Perfetti is still not on PP1 and his SH% is quite a bit above his prior best, so there might be reason for skepticism in terms of how he'll fare the rest of the way.
Bryan Rust (Scoring Pace = 77 points)
It appeared as Rust's days of piling up points despite being a Pen were over. But apparently someone forgot to give Rust the memo, as he's looked just as good as he did in his heyday. With Rickard Rakell struggling and now injured), Rust has a coveted spot on PP1, which, if he keeps it, should ensure he maintains his scoring rate.
Tim Stutzle (Scoring Pace = 113 points)
Few wouldn't have predicted Stutzle to do pace better than last season, but this jump might be a bit too much too soon. Then again, he's got a great surrounding cast and seems to be cut from a true scorer's cloth.
Shea Theodore (Scoring Pace = 74 points)
For years it was thought Theodore had this in him, but was blocked with Alex Pietrangelo. Well, when the Knights were without Pietrangelo for a while early this season Theodore stepped on the gas pedal and hasn't eased off despite Pietrangelo's return. It might have been enough to ensure he gets the deployment he needs to keep up this pace.
Frank Vatrano (Scoring Pace = 82 points)
Yes, this would be a huge leap in production; but then again Vatrano has seemingly had talent in him all along, and now is getting a true opportunity to strut his stuff. Still, 82 games is a long season and this would be truly uncharted territory.
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Those are your 20 choices. How you cast your votes is up to you. But remember that you should vote for as many players as you think can do this well, or better, over the course of the rest of the regular season. If you believe they'll do worse, don't vote for them. It's as simple as that. Click here to cast your vote(s).
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Questions for Mailbag Column
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“But without a spot on PP1, and LA still not fully seen as an offensive powerhouse, can he maintain this pace at this stage of his career?”
Byfield was moved to PP1 on Nov 25th.