Frozen Tools Forensics: Percent Rostered

Chris Kane

2023-12-01

Today on Frozen Tool Forensics, we are going to be diving into a new report about rostered percentages. Over on the reports page under the Rankings heading, we have a report called Precent Rostered. It gives us some basic counting stats (points, shots, hits, blocks, penalty minutes, and power-play points), along with a couple of time on ice stats in power-play time, and total time on ice.

For the purposes of this article today we are just going to explore the report and use the percent rostered data to highlight a few players who might be available in leagues. I am going to start with the Yahoo percent rostered as there are generally more leagues that use that platform, but it does come with a caveat. Yahoo also tends to have more casual leagues, or leagues that go inactive, so their roster percent numbers might be a bit lower. Fantrax leagues tend to be deeper and more active, but also contain a wider variety of leagues (think dynasty), so it isn't too surprising that for the most part their roster numbers are a bit higher for a lot of the players we are going to talk about today.

For reference, all data was pulled before November 30's games, so might be missing a game's worth of info on any one specific player.

The first group is the 25-50 percent group.

Quinton Byfield is currently 38 percent rostered on Yahoo, though 68 percent on Fantrax. Clearly that difference in percent rostered is our first clue that maybe our Yahoo number should be increasing. Byfield's stat line is the best of his career thus far with 16 points in 20 games, almost two shots per game, a career high 15 minutes of overall ice time, and two and a half on the power-play. He has small recent cold streak (pointless in two games), but prior to that he had 15 points in 13 games. His game-by-game shot rates are a bit inconsistent, but he is getting consistent top line deployment and recently some top power-play time as well. There is nothing necessarily indicating that he should be doing better than his current 66-point pace, but he has been putting up enough production to be rostered in more than 38 percent of Yahoo leagues.

I am not sure what else can be said about Nick Schmaltz at this point. At only 28 percent rostered in Yahoo, he clearly just isn't making an impression on Yahoo managers. Fantrax is better, with his rostered percent up at 75 percent. To be fair he is not having his best season thus far, a 62-point pace after two seasons in the mid-70s, but he is going to be just fine. His total time on ice and power-play ice time numbers are up. His expected goals and shot rates are consistent. It really just comes down to his points participation numbers, and shooting percentage numbers be slightly off his recent career pace. Either way if you are in a Yahoo league, take a look at him and see if he is a better add than the low man on your roster.

Next up, a few players rostered in less than 25 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Mathieu Joseph is on a 77-point pace over in Ottawa and has been looking quite good in recent days. He is rostered in only 8 percent of Yahoo leagues while his Fantrax number is up at 36 percent. That number could be higher across the board. Averaging about 17 minutes a night, about two shots per game, and skating in the top six is all good news. We could hope for a few more shots, and some more power-play time, but in the meantime, he has eight points in his last eight games.

JJ Peterka should not be rostered in 24 percent of Yahoo Leagues. Fantrax is better where that number is up to 57, but that number needs to improve. Peterka has been rotated off the top power play in favor of Victor Olofsson for some reason, but since October 27, he has 15 points in 15 games, has averaged over 16 and a half minutes of time on ice, and is shooting just about three times per game. I would love to see him get that power-play time back, but even so he is still shooting well, and playing with Dylan Cozens at even strength.

And finally, our less than 5 percent rostered group.

Ok so there are some reasons not to love Philipp Kurashev, but 4 percent? Come on Yahoo. Fantrax leagues are bit wiser here with his percent all the way up at 41. Kurashev has been skating on a top line and top power-play with Connor Bedard and has a 70-point pace overall. Recently he has been even more impressive with 11 points in nine games through November. The red flags are a couple of cold games to end November, a low shot rate, and a high team shooting percentage. So yes probably not a long term hold, but certainly worth a look if Chicago is scoring goals.

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I am also interested in a bit of a swing for Dmitri Voronkov over in Columbus. He is only 2 percent rostered on Yahoo and 19 over on Fantrax. In recent weeks he has been lining up on a second line. The exact makeup of that group has changed a little bit over time, but often contains Adam Fantilli and/or Kirill Marchenko. Overall, he is on a 50-point pace, and while it seems a little rich given his low shot rates he definitely bears watching.

And finally, Alex Newhook's 48 point pace certainly isn't blowing the doors off, but he has been skating on a line with Nick Suzuki in recent weeks, has six points in his last six games, played more than 18 total minutes three times in that span, and has been putting up about two shots per game. At only four percent rostered in Yahoo and 32 in Fantrax he is certainly worth a stream if you can fit in any Montreal games.

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