Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. With Dougie Hamilton headed to IR following surgery for a torn pectoral muscle, Simon Nemec was recalled and made his NHL regular-season debut on Friday. The second overall pick in 2022, 19-year-old Nemec registered two assists in 22:38 of ice time while being paired with Jonas Siegenthaler. One of Nemec’s assists was on the power play, as he assisted on Dawson Mercer‘s goal while playing second-unit minutes. Nemec’s usage seemed to be that of a regular defenseman as opposed to a rookie that hasn’t paid his dues with the coach, but the Hamilton injury and a suspension (first game of two) to Brendan Smith meant that the Devils defense was undermanned.

How long Nemec stays in the NHL could depend on how long Hamilton is out, as both are right-shot defensemen. Beyond that, the other main factor will be how NHL-ready he is, as he will also be battling the likes of John Marino, Kevin Bahl, and Colin Miller for minutes. Offensive upside is one thing, but ability to defend at the NHL level matters more to an NHL coach. Miller and Smith are both UFAs after the season, so at the very least expect Nemec to be a full-time player in 2024-25. In the here and now, he’s worth a pickup for fantasy teams that need help with scoring on defense. (dec2)

2. Akira Schmid faced 47 shots on Thursday, so a back-to-back game on Friday meant a start for Vitek Vanecek, right? Nope. A date with the Sharks would have been the perfect get-well card for the struggling Vanecek, but Lindy Ruff isn’t trusting Vanecek right now. Schmid was thrown back out there for what seemed like an easy match on paper, but he sputtered in allowing five goals on just 17 shots in a 6-3 loss to San Jose.

Ruff may turn to Vanecek for the Devils’ next game on Tuesday in Vancouver (an all-Hughes matchup!), but right now it’s hard to rely on either New Jersey goalie. Only those same Sharks have allowed more goals per game than the Devils (3.73 GA/GP). Goaltending has been holding back a team that was expected to take a major step forward this season, but instead is stuck at the back of the peloton well behind the front-running Rangers in the Atlantic Division. I’ve benched Vanecek on one of my teams for a few games, and now I’m thinking I should do the same with Schmid on another one of my teams. (dec2)

3. Sam Montembeault has signed a three-year extension worth $9.45 million (cap hit $3.15 million) to remain with Montreal. This is a significant raise over his current cap hit of $1 million, set to expire at the end of the season. Given the Canadiens’ rebuilding state, Montembeault has performed reasonably well (2.73 GAA, .910 SV%) while showing better numbers than the more experienced Jake Allen. Montembeault had also upped his game recently with three wins and four quality starts over his last four games.

Although he has mostly split the goaltending with Allen this season, Montembeault seems like the better Habs goalie to roster right now and may even earn the lion’s share of the goaltending going forward. However, Allen has one more year on his contract after this one with a higher cap hit of $3.85 million, which should also be taken into account.(dec2)

4. I thought that Tom Wilson‘s Top 100 Roto Ranking of 17, set by Bangers Fantasy Hockey at the start of the season, was a bit high. Yet now I can see a reason for it. December 1 is the beginning of the advent calendar, so it seems fitting that I discuss a player who is like an advent calendar in roto leagues. In other words, you know you’ll be getting something – you just don’t know what it will be.

Wilson has pushed his shot average up to 3 SOG/GP for the season, which is half a shot higher than his previous career best last season. He has also averaged close to three hits per game this season, which would put him on pace for over 200 hits again. Not one to ever lose his edge, Wilson’s 45 PIM also places him in the top 10 in that category. (dec2)

5. Michael Carcone has 11 goals in 22 games. Who is that, you ask? Well, Carcone plays for Arizona and has been skating mostly on what appears to be a middle-6 line along with Jason Zucker and Alex Kerfoot. We are still in the phase of the season where shooting percentages will be abnormally high, and Carcone’s is at 33.3%. For those reasons, it’s difficult to assume that his recent scoring run will continue, although he may be able to move up the lineup with his recent play. (dec2)

6. Remember Mikael Granlund, the player that the Penguins couldn’t move off of quickly enough? He’s suddenly hot with six points in his last four games, including a goal and two assists on Friday. Granlund has rebounded after a rough start (0 G and 4 A in first 13 GP) to jump into second place in Sharks team scoring. Like the Sharks who have won three of their past four games, Granlund might not be as bad as you think. He may even be an option for deeper leagues (4% Yahoo/11% Fantrax). (dec2)

7. The Blue Jackets have been playing better hockey recently, having won four of their past six games. On Friday, Elvis Merzlikins stopped 41 of 43 shots he faced in the Jackets’ 4-2 win over Ottawa. Merzlikins has moved from simply awful territory to just average this season, which is actually a giant leap. He has been a game-saver for Columbus recently, having posted quality starts in four of his last five outings while facing at least 35 shots in all four of those quality starts. It seems safe to start him in fantasy leagues again. (dec2)

8. Because I am curious and want to compare struggling players across various teams of mine, I generated a Frozen Tools Player Compare of ex-Flame Johnny Gaudreau to current Flame Jonathan Huberdeau. You can see the results here. It may (or may not) surprise you that Huberdeau has been the more productive player this season. Simply put, Huberdeau (entering Saturday action) is on pace for a 53-point season (similar to last season) while Gaudreau is way down from last season with a 43-point pace this season.

Gaudreau hasn’t rebounded as I’d hoped for two of my teams. Most concerning is the fact that he has just three goals in 25 games. The good news is that he’s shooting just 5.4% this season when he shot between 15-17% in his last two seasons in Calgary, so more pucks should start going in. The bad news is that he’s down a shot per game from his final season in Calgary. He’ll improve, but like Huberdeau, another 100-point season seems like nothing more than a dream. (dec2)

9. It seemed likely to me that Patrick Kane‘s dip in production last season to a below point-per-game level (0.78 PTS/GP) for the first time in five seasons was at least partially due to the troublesome hip. However, it might be a reach to expect the Kane of old going forward. It seems like yesterday that Kane was a youthful core piece on the up-and-coming Blackhawks, but he is now 35 years old. At this point his production is difficult to project with a high risk/reward factor.

For more on what Kane to Detroit will mean fantasy wise, Cliffy has the Fantasy Take.  (dec1)

10. The Canucks acquired Nikita Zadorov from Pacific Division rival Calgary in exchange for a 2024 fifth-round pick and a 2026 third-round pick. Zadorov had reportedly requested to be traded, which might explain at least in part why the return for the Flames was relatively low. The Canucks had traded Anthony Beauvillier to the Blackhawks just a day earlier, which freed up the $3.75 million cap hit needed to acquire Zadorov.

Zadorov is a left-handed shot who can play the right side, a much-needed area of concern for the Canucks. He has never scored more than 22 points in a season, and that shouldn’t change much in Vancouver. Zadorov has some bangers league value, as he has registered at least 150 hits in each of the past seven seasons and has also made decent penalty minute contributions throughout his career. He will most likely play on the second or third defensive pairing for the Canucks unless Rick Tocchet decides to break up the Quinn Hughes – Filip Hronek top pairing.  (dec1)

11. In Anthony Beauvillier, the Blackhawks have replaced Corey Perry‘s cap hit and his spot in the lineup with a younger player that has some upside, but just hasn’t been given consistent opportunities in New York or Vancouver. There should be a lot of runway for Beauvillier next to Connor Bedard, and all the power play time he can handle. He’s maybe not a 60+ point threat right now, but I would expect more along the line of a 50-point-pace the rest of the way. (nov29)

12. I haven’t been a “keep Pyotr Kochetkov at all costs” guy when he was the third goalie in the AHL, particularly when it wasn’t known when he would play NHL games. However, you shouldn’t wait any longer if he’s available and you want to add him, even with his lousy start on Thursday. An injury to Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta (in particular Raanta) seemed inevitable, and sure enough Andersen will be out for a while due to a blood clot. At time of writing, Kochetkov was available in 42% of Yahoo leagues and 48% of Fantrax leagues. By the way, did you know that Frozen Tools profiles now show both of these ownership percentages?  (dec1)

13. Top Frozen Tools search Matt Boldy snapped a four-game point drought and a 10-game goal drought on Tuesday. As I mentioned before the season, I thought he was drafted a bit too high because he seemed like a trendy pick among many. I’m not here to say I told you so – more to say that he wasn’t a player I was targeting because others definitely were. I zag when others zig. Makes sense? Boldy owners should hold onto him anyway to find out if the coaching change from Dean Evason to John Hynes will have the desired effect. (dec1)

Minnesota fired Evason after the team's poor start. There are a lot of things wrong with the team and it starts with being short-handed cap-wise because of the buyouts. Those go on for another year so this issue is nowhere near resolved. John Hynes was named as Evason's replacement. (Brennan posted a piece covering the firing, so check that out here.)  (nov28)

14. Jake Neighbours is making his way up to the top of waiver-wire add lists. Entering Saturday action, Neighbours had seven goals over his last seven games. He was taking full advantage of his promotion to the top line with Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas, receiving 20 minutes of icetime in back-to-back games. He’s even found his way onto the Blues’ top power play recently.

One stat that’s helping Neighbours’ cause: He is shooting the puck more recently. Although he has averaged just 1.5 SOG/GP this season, Neighbours has averaged over three shots per game over his last four games, including five shots on Thursday.

One stat that’s hurting Neighbours’ cause: He’s shooting at an unsustainable 28.1%, so as you might guess the goal scoring will cool off. He has just one assist all season, but that number should improve and could offset a downturn in goals while he’s on the top line.

Go ahead and add Neighbours based on this recent production, but feel free to drop him in single-season leagues if he’s moved off a scoring line and/or the production dries up. The 2020 first-round pick (26^th overall) has seen an increase to his keeper value with this recent run.  (dec1)

15. Some Buffalo Sabres news: They recalled Brandon Biro from the AHL in response to sending down goaltender Devon Levi. Biro has already appeared in the NHL this season and with the team’s injuries, this bouncing back and forth is likely to persist for him for the next month. Jiri Kulich was sent back down and he wasn’t given much of a chance with just the one game. It seems their target is 2024-25 now, barring a barrage of injuries. A chance to hone his professional game a little more, I guess.

GM Kevyn Adams also said that Tage Thompson is still not close to returning but there doesn’t seem to be any setbacks. Not having any setbacks is the good news here, even if he’s not expected in the lineup anytime soon. Adams also said that injured winger Jack Quinn returning around January 1 is still realistic, so more good news there, even if both he and Thompson are weeks from returning. (nov30)

16. Vegas announced Shea Theodore underwent upper-body surgery (these designations are getting ridiculous) and is out week-to-week. Whatever that all means, he won’t be back for a while. That should mean a lot more top PP time for Alex Pietrangelo moving forward, though Theodore was off to a great start and not having him in the lineup hurts them everywhere offensively. (nov30)

17. Every year, fantasy managers have their own players that they are higher on than most of the public, or just their league mates. Sometimes it works out, and sometimes not. It is easy to focus on the hits (shout out to Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafreniere, and Mike Matheson), but it’s also important to look at the misses and see what’s going wrong. Let's check out four players I pegged for a breakout (partial list from a September Ramblings here) that haven’t reached the level they were projected for.

Brett Howden: With Reilly Smith going to Pittsburgh and Phil Kessel not returning, it seemed that Howden could have a breakout year ahead as was a staple next to Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone during their Stanley Cup run. In 21 games (at time of writing), he has three goals, five points, 18 shots, and 21 hits. That is not a breakout.

I have mentioned it before, but it bears repeating: Stephenson is having an awful year. AllThreeZones tracking has him with 1.05 scoring chance assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is simply his passes leading to chances by line mates. Stephenson was well over three times higher than that across his prior two seasons. The inability of that line – Howden included – to generate any sort of quality offence has led to significant line changes recently and led to Howden having an inconsistent role.

This will all come down to Stephenson. If he can’t improve, Howden isn’t good enough on his own to help Stone carry a line. That this winger has also averaged just one hit per game, after averaging 1.7 per game over his first two seasons in Vegas, is hurting his multi-cat value even more. If anyone has a crystal ball, let me know if Stephenson improves once 2024 rolls around. If not, Howden is almost certainly waiver wire fodder. (nov30)

[Follow the link for more…] 

18. Adam Fox‘s return comes with the universe balancing things out and taking Kaapo Kakko away from the team with a long-term (but not season-ending) knee injury. Fox slides back onto the top power play, Erik Gustafsson moves down to the second unit, and that might be it for K’Andre Miller‘s power-play exposure for a while. (nov29)

19. One thing I’ve been writing about so far this season is how shot rates are changing in the league. Notably, fewer shot attempts are turning into shots on goal as shot-blocking and misses are rising. This was from a few weeks ago, but the same holds now. I thought it’d be worth looking at individual players who’ve had this issue affect them this season. Let’s look at some players with shot attempts turning into fewer shots on goal than normal. [Follow the link for the analysis…] (nov28)

20. Goalie goals are lots of fun, and they take a lot of skill too. Tristan Jarry showed that in scoring his first NHL goal. Bring on the jokes about Jarry (at time of writing) having more goals this season than players like Josh Anderson and Max Domi.  (dec1)

21. David Perron‘s overall output remains underwhelming as he is on pace for just 43 points. This is a player who scored 56 points last season, and consistently flirted with a 70-point pace in the years before that. He’s averaging about 15 minutes of ice time this year, a significant drop from the 17-18 minutes he averaged in recent seasons. More concerning is the role he’s playing lately, skating beside Andrew Copp and Robby Fabbri on the third line, starting way more shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone. Although he’s still seeing prominent power-play time, his even-strength deployment and production makes it hard to roster him in most formats. (nov27)

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BTW: If you need an early season team audit, some in depth analysis before pulling the trigger on a trade, or if you are just uncertain as to whether a specific player’s hot (or cold) start to the season will continue, then make sure to get your question in to Rick Roos. There are two ways to send in questions (1) private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line. No one will do a better or more in-depth analysis on your question than Rick will.

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Have a good week, folks!

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