Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a keep 14 league with categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, PPG, PPA, HIT, BLK, should a GM accept an offer of Tim Stutzle, Kevin Fiala and Kent Johnson for his Jason Robertson, Pavel Mintyukov, and Timo Meier?

I've said it before – I'm not in favor of trades where more than two players are coming or going, as there is added potential to have them go wrong due to more players being involved, plus the more players involved the more a GM can disguise its unfairness. Yes, you could try to be that GM; however, I've seen many a shrewd GM do a deal involving three or even more players coming/going and then realize only after accepting it that the scales did not tilt in their favor.

As for this deal, it's a bit harder to evaluate because it's a 3F for 2F, 1D deal, so you can't just match the players and calculate who's better on an apples-to-apples basis. While the players to compare are Stutzle vs. Robertson and Meier vs. Fiala, that leaves Mintyukov and Johnson. Yes, both are younger players, but their lack of identical positions complicates this.

For Stutzle vs. Robertson, I like Robertson, especially if positions matter. He's a SOG beast and has rebounded from a slow start to show he's indeed 100% for real, whereas Stutzle started very strong but hasn't upped the ante. Also, Robertson is doing all this while receiving not a lot of ice time, which is something that can improve, whereas Stutzle is already maxed out, and has Josh Norris also in the picture, whereas Robertson is the top wing in Dallas, case closed. So I give the edge between them to Robertson.

For Fiala and Meier, I'm opting for Fiala. Yes, Fiala is a WYSIWYG player at this point; but what you get is 80-85 points, excellent SOG and PPPt totals, and rock solid number overall. Meier, as I've mentioned previously, is essentially a round peg unable to fit into what are only square holes in New Jersey. He shoots too much to be on a line with the high SOG volume Jack Hughes, leaving the only other option to play alongside Nico Hischier, who is a two-way center that won't bring out the best in Meier. Yes, Meier is a multicat force; however, I fear his scoring will be lousy in New Jersey, so I'm opting for the sure thing in Fiala.

With respect to Mintyukov versus Johnson, fantasy worthy defensemen are comparatively more scarce than forwards, so the default edge goes to Mintyukov. But Anaheim has quite a few rearguards who could compete for prime minutes, and he's cooled considerably after a very good start. Johnson is still finding his footing in the NHL, but his IPPs for his career thus far sit just below that key 70% threshold, so I expect big things from him.

This is close enough that I don't see either side as the surefire winner. In those cases, I usually stand pat; however here, it depends on what the GM makes of Mintyukov and Johnson, as that is really the deciding factor.

Topic #2 – A GM is eyeing Kevin Fiala, who was recently dropped in their league. Would it be a net positive to drop Pavel Buchnevich, Mike Matheson or Mikhail Sergachev to pick Fiala up? Categories are G, A, +/-, PPPt, SOG, HIT, and they already have Adam Fox, Victor Hedman and Brandon Montour for defensemen.

I discussed Fiala above, but let's dig deeper into his numbers. His scoring paces from the last two seasons were 85 and 86; and as I write this, he's exactly at point per game numbers. His PP time per game has risen though by almost a minute since 2021-22 and, in turn, so too has the ratio of PPPts among his overall points.

Why then is he not producing more? His overall ice time is actually lower this season than last. Plus, his PP time being higher is more a function of the team he's on being on the man advantage more often, as his share of PP minutes has only upticked by a couple of percentage points. Los Angeles is a team that is finding great success by throwing a balanced approach at its opponents, with three scoring lines, none of which gets heaps of ice time. In fact, of the 38 players with more points than Fiala as I write this, just one averages lower ice time per game (Joe Pavelski) and only two others (Jason Robertson, William Karlsson) aren't averaging at least a full minute more TOI per game.

How then is Fiala doing as well as he is? IPP. Throughout his career he's had superb IPPs, with an IPP on the PP of 73.5% or higher in five of his last six seasons and an overall IPP of 73.6%+ in all six of his past six seasons. Simply put, he is a points magnet. If he was ever given a role on what is truly a top line and top PP, he could be a 90+ point player with ease, perhaps even making a run at 100+ points. As it has stood however, he's been throttled. And who knows, perhaps that is the formula that has led to his success. Until/unless his circumstances change, which I don't see happening in LA, he is what he is, which is an 80-85 point player.

The lure in picking him up is you get locked in production, albeit without realistic upside. In the case of Buchnevich, yes he's off his usual pace but the fact remains he's yet to finish a season with a lower scoring pace than the previous season……..….ever! And inasmuch as he's already produced at an 87 point pace, he likely has upside that Fiala doesn't. So he's not my drop.

Matheson is proving last season is no fluke; however, he seems to be maxed out right under a 60-point scoring rate. And although he should improve as the Habs do, given that a rising tide will lift his boat as the team TOI leader and PP QB, he's also turning 30 soon and likely will not get better on his own.

Sergachev is disappointing this season, but what he showed last season gave us a preview of what he can – and likely will – do. Yes, Victor Hedman is back in the driver's seat and not at all showing his age; however, Tampa knows they will need Hedman fresh for the playoffs so I still maintain that Sergachev will get chances to step up this season.

Given the surplus of already great D this team has, and Sergachev's home run potential versus Matheson's likely maxed out production, I'd drop Matheson for Fiala.

Topic #3 – Who stands to do better over the rest of this season in a points only format: Bryan Rust or JJ Peterka?

This is an interesting question, since it boils down to how much Rust can be "trusted." Peterka looks to be locked into a top six role with the Sabres and is producing well. But what I like most, and what the Sabres likely see too, is his 78.6% IPP. That shows he finds his way onto the score sheet, which is so key when the Sabres have enough talent to skate three scoring lines. Still, he is locked out of PP1 for now. Nevertheless, his SOG/60 rate is really good, above the likes of Jake Guentzel, Travis Konecny, Timo Meier, Matt Boldy, and Andrei Svechnikov. If this was for a keeper Peterka would be a slam dunk pick; but his 2023-24 realistic production is 60 points with a better shot at 65 than 55.

Rust was downright lousy last season, and was pushed down the line-up in response. But he's played better for 2023-24, while Rickard Rakell has been much worse. Plus, if you do the math, there are four scoring wingers for the Pens – Rust, Rakell, Guentzel, and Reilly Smith. It'd be difficult to envision Rust falling out of the top six. But he too is not is the PP1 picture; and unlike the Sabres, who ice a quite decent second unit, PP2 for the Pens gets less ice time and features far less quality talent. Rust's IPP also sits below 60%, which isn't surprising given the talent he plays with at ES. Still though, his SOG per game is 3.2, which means he is involved.

Peterka is better at getting points, but his line might score less, while Rust is locked into a top tier line but isn't a points magnet. I think it's closer than I'd expected, but I have to go with Rust in view of his situation and strong SOG rate. Peterka will have his day, but for the time being he is still in the process of getting better, while Rust is still good enough to be already better.

This all depends on Rust being healthy, which he unfortunately isn't at the moment.

Topic #4 – In a keeper with categories and weighting of G=3, A=2, +/-= 1, PPP=1, SHP=1, GWG=1, a GM has been offered Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman for Mikko Rantanen and Mika Zibanejad; should they take the deal?

Looks like someone in this GM's league is ready to climb off the Edmonton train. Usually when getting someone of the caliber of Draisaitl, the only right answer is to say yes; however, when the players it would cost you are Rantanen and Zibanejad, you have to kick the tires on the deal for sure.

It's true that Draisaitl has been slower to rebound than his fellow superstar teammate Connor McDavid, with Draisaitl sitting at just a point per game as I write this. What's more, Draisaitl's SOG rate is tied for the lowest its been in five seasons, and he's actually seeing a decent chunk less PP time than his norm. But while at first Draisaitl's 14.8% SH% would seem fine, it's well below his 18.2% average that it was upon entering 2023-24, meaning he likely should've already had three more goals just in the normal course. Also, Draisaitl's IPPs, both overall and on the PP, as they stand now would mark five season lows for him. And although they're not so far and way lower than his usual percentages, they are lower enough to probably have cost him another couple of points.

Zibs is off his 2022-23 pace, which was only the second time he's actually been above a point per game in his career. In other words, he seems better than he really is because he's the top line center for such a high profile team. But his IPPs are quite a bit lower than his norm, such that he should have more than a handful of added points. Regardless, I still worry in that he's shooting a lot less and might be starting to slow.

As for Rantanen, he's basically the superstar version of Fiala in that his production always seems to be the same, namely 100-105 points, which is where it stands yet again. His IPPs and SOG rate and other metrics are all within normal ranges, so there's not much more to say than that, except locked in 100-105 point production is pretty amazing, and he's the youngest of the four players, albeit not by much.

Hyman has shown this season that 2022-23 was no fluke. In fact, while the rest of the Oiler forwards were underperforming, he kept humming along. He's solidified his spot on PP1 and alongside one of – if not both – Draisaitl and McDavid at ES. Yes, his SH% right now would be a career high despite his SOG also being his best, which doesn't add up; however, if the Oilers get back into the swing of things, he'll still factor prominently in their offense.

I think that despite the locked in great production of Rantanen, Zibanejad is a bit too iffy for me. Plus, it seems more and more the case by the day that Hyman is indeed the real deal on Edmonton and Draisaitl, despite what we've seen for 2023-24, is still arguably a top three fantasy forward. In sum, this is a deal I'd make.

Topic #5 –In a league with rosters of 2C, 2L, 2R, 1U, 3D, 2G, 6Bench, 2IR, 2IR+ and skater categories of G, A, +/-, PPP, PIM, HITS, BS, GWG, SOG, a GM had stashed Patrick Kane but is now wondering if he should be dropped in favor of Tomas Hertl. There is no issue of +/- because the GM is punting on that category.

With Kane, there is the lure of his greatness, which seems like it was happening long ago but he was a 96-98 point producer for three straight seasons through 2021-22, and that was for a Chicago team that was struggling. But by now we all know that players who've undergone hip resurfacing, as Kane did, either never played again or, in the recent case of Nicklas Backstrom, made a go of it but couldn't successfully come back. That has to loom large. Thus far the early returns on Kane has been…..okay. He's shooting a good amount and seeing top unit PP time, but he's not piling on the points.

As for Hertl, in a column that's already covered two players who are among the most consistent in fantasy in Fiala and Rantanen, let's discuss a third in Hertl. Even as the Sharks have become one of the worst teams in hockey and almost devoid of fantasy options, there's Hertl scoring at a 68-point rate after producing at a 62-71 point rate in each of the last four seasons. Yes, bad teams don't score as much as good teams, but they do score, and it's often the case that the best players step up, as Hertl has. Plus, he's getting a higher percentage of PP Time than he's ever before, and his overall TOI is on track to be over 21:00 despite never previously being even 20:00. And although his IPPs are far above his norms, that's a function of him not having talent around him and needing to do more himself. So whereas in the past Hertl was a player who produced well on an okay to good team, he's doing more when his skill is needed the most now, so the story checks out.

Can Kane produce at the 62-71 point pace we're all but certain Hertl will put up yet again? It's a possibility; however, we can't ignore that unlike in past season there are other viable scoring options on Detroit this season, and, of course, who knows how his well or how long his hip will hold up. I think the question marks that surround Kane are too great, and thus Hertl should be picked up, sending Kane to the waiver wire.

Topic #6 – In 12-team H2H partial keeper (7 vets + 3 prospects (skater <201 gp; goalie < 101gp)) with categories of G,A,P,PIM,+/-,PPP,SOG,FW,HIT, BLK,W,GAA,SV%,SV and starting 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G, who is the better own, Luke Hughes or Leo Carlsson?

The Carlsson experiment in Anaheim is working well so far, with him looking every bit ready for the NHL. Yes, he's a natural center; however, he's mainly lined up with Trevor Zegras, so he has some flexibility in case Anaheim wants to stick to a one-two pivot punch of Zegras and Mason McTavish. Carlsson's IPPs have not been great; however, his scoring hasn't suffered, plus just one of his six assists have been secondary, meaning he likely should have even more points. He also has shown some decent multi-cat acumen. In short, he looks like he could deliver on lofty expectations. If Anaheim turns a corner in the next couple of seasons, he could reap the benefits in a major way. Carlsson also likely will have winger eligibility, giving all-important FW possibilities from a non-center position.

Hughes is getting a chance to strut his stuff while Dougie Hamilton has been hurt. But in the six games since Hamilton went down with his injury, Hughes has actually done worse than he was previously. It might be that he was doing as well as he was because before Hamilton was hurt there was no pressure and he was able to be very protected in terms of deployment. Seeing what's unfolded does take some of the shine off Hughes, at least for now. Another concern is Hughes' 66.7% secondary assist rate, which means he likely lucked into a few extra points thus far. I'm not wild about Hughes' lack of SOG, as he's just not firing pucks on the net at anywhere near the rate needed for him to be much more than a point per every other game player. Although he's not as bad as Quinn in banger categories, he's well below average for even a scoring defenseman. Dougie Hamilton is paid a lot, such that it would be a stretch for Hughes to get top tier deployment for a while, and his early career could play out much like Mikhail Sergachev's did for Tampa, with point per every other game scoring at best for quite a while. But unlike Sergachev, however, Hughes seems like he is getting PP1 time, so perhaps that will help. But with Hamilton looming, it's not the ideal situation for sure.

In Carlsson, you have a player who will benefit from those around him rather than, as is the case with Hughes, that raising a question mark. Still, defensemen are a rarer fantasy commodity than forwards, and that matters. But so do the categories, where Carlsson has a pretty sizeable edge. I think it's close enough that it would depend on what defensemen this team has. If they're well stocked there, I might opt for Carlsson, whereas if their rearguard situation could be ripe for an upgrade and/or is aging, then Hughes probably is the pick.

Topic #7 – In a 20 team, H2H full dynasty NHL cap league with skater categories G, A, SOG, Pts, PPP, PIMS, HITS, BLKS, FOW, and SHTOI, should a GM give their Pavel Zacha and Paul Cotter to get Joel Eriksson-Ek?

Much like Buchnevich who I discussed above, Eriksson-Ek has been on the rise, with his ice time and scoring rates increasing for five straight seasons. And he's gone from being stuck on PP2 to an ironclad handle on a PP1 gig. He's also shooting the puck more than ever. And he only turns 27 in January, meaning he could have even more in the tank, especially since he's a larger player and only at the end of last season hit his 400 game breakout threshold. My one concern though is his IPPs, which are fair at best. Also, once the Wild escape from cap hell, he could be pushed down the roster in favor of higher priced talent.

Zacha was picked in the same draft as Eriksson-Ek, but is farther past his 400 game breakout threshold. After making some noise in 2022-23, he's stuck in neutral for 2023-24, yet his scoring rate is only a tad below that of Eriksson-Ek's for what it's worth. Zacha has been the center for David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, but he's not scoring more because those two are points magnets, leading to Zacha having an overall IPP of barely over 50%. Zacha also is under two SOG per game, which does help excuse his much higher SH% at least somewhat, but still is not a good sign. Zacha also is on PP1 as well, but failing to average even one PPPt per every four games. His spot there is likely not in doubt; however, it's not doing him any favors. In short, things could not be aligned better for Zacha than they are, yet he's not thriving. Still, unlike with the Wild, I'd say Zacha has a firmer grip on a locked in top six spot.

As for Cotter, for a hits machine he does put up a decent number of points. But I don't think he is worthy of factoring into the deal, all things being otherwise equal. Speaking of hits though, Eriksson-Ek is strong in that area, and even better than Zacha in FOW, while both see their fair share of SH duty, making that area a wash.

I do worry that the Wild will be itching to bring in a top pivot when they can start writing big checks again, by which time Marco Rossi could be coming even more into his owe. Yes, Eriksson-Ek has done a lot to prove his worth and keep his "spot" but I do fear his time as a top six and PP1 fixture might be fleeting. Those things having been said, Zacha is not making the most of his opportunity, such that he might not be the top line center in Boston on a going forward basis. In the end, I think I still favor Eriksson-Ek, who I feel will be better for the time being and because Zacha is not doing as well as he should and also could find himself pushed down the lineup in a future season.

Topic #8 – In a points only dynasty, who's the better own, Jamie Drysdale or David Jiricek?

Both were early picks and remain top prospects. Drysdale has seen more NHL action, but also is fast on his way to becoming a band-aid boy. And in doing so, he allowed Pavol Mintyukov to enter the equation sooner than expected, acquitting himself well to the NHL game. Still, I think Drysdale is a big part of Anaheim's plans, as shown by the over 22 minutes he averaged in the two games he did manage to play this season.

Jiricek projects to be more of an all-around defenseman. Columbus realizes that, and is bringing him along slowly. That's an issue since given his size he likely will need 400+ games to hit his breakout threshold. By then the Blue Jackets should be vastly improved; however, Drysdale may have already become very good on a rising Ducks team.

In truth, a decision like this is like looking into a crystal ball; however, for a points-only league I'm taking Drysdale, who projects to be more of a scoring D and should have an earlier impact.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.