I would ask the readers for a bit of grace here as this now Day 3 without power in my region, as I write this the estimate is we’re not getting it back for anywhere from 12-48 hours, and trying to keep track of NHL news in the circumstances isn’t the easiest. Let’s look through some of the big notes of the day.

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According to Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press, Alex Iafallo has jumped back to the top power play unit in Winnipeg while Cole Perfetti has been bumped down to the second unit. Consistent ice time has been an issue for Perfetti, now he has none of their top forwards on his line at even strength, and he’s lost his power play role. That is not good news for his short-term fantasy value.

Ville Heinola was also at Jets practice in a non-contact jersey. He broke his ankle back in October and has just resumed skating in the last couple of weeks. Whether he’d even have a role on the main roster is another matter entirely, but it’s good to see the defenceman back at practice regardless.

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Kevin Kurz of The Athletic reported that Carter Hart missed Philadelphia’s game on Tuesday due to fatigue. Hart had missed time recently due to an illness, and now he’s missing time due to fatigue after (presumably) getting over the mystery illness. More updates as we get them but that’s not a great sign.

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Buffalo beat writer Joe Yerdon reported a Sabres practice featuring the top line of Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch. The two wingers have both sustained injuries over the last month that has kept them out of the lineup at different times. There is no commitment to Skinner playing on Thursday night, but things are trending in that direction.

Also reported was a second line of JJ Peterka, Dylan Cozens, and Jack Quinn. The latter just returned from his Achilles injury this week, Peterka has looked great all season, and Cozens is just starting to find his groove. This trio was very good offensively in 2022-23 and the hope, it appears, is to get that secondary scoring going again. These three are a big part of the Buffalo future, and fantasy owners should be happy to see them reunited, even if ice time on the top PP unit will be difficult to come by for at least two of them.

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Not long ago, I wrote a Ramblings covering the players I was wrong about in 2023-24. Those names include Mikhail Sergachev, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Miro Heiskanen, Jordan Kyrou, and Bowen Byram. There are still 50 games left (give or take) so maybe a couple of those guys have big second halves, but it’s not looking great right now.

In the spirit of the holidays, I want to gloat a bit, so let’s take a positive angle and review some of my successes from this season. Figuring out what went wrong with the players that underperformed is important to learning lessons that can be applied moving forward. On the flipside, keying in on what went right for the players that have performed to, or exceeded, lofty expectations is also important because it helps identify more of those players this year, or down the road. So, let’s look at some of my fantasy successes thus far in 2023-24.

Quinton Byfield

With eight goals in 28 games, Byfield alraedy has as many goals this season as he did in the first 99 games of his career. He has 22 points in his last 23 appearances as he’s earned a bigger role, including consistent top power play minutes. One thing that was stressed in the offseason was that Byfield was turning into a high-end playmaker, and that’s something he’s shown full marks for in 2023-24 by managing an excellent scoring chance assist rate (as tracked by AllThreeZones) which is simply the rate at which he assists on teammate scoring chances at 5-on-5 (off the top of my head, he was easily a first-line rate the last I looked at the data). He is even up to two shots per game, which is a big improvement over last year, and has led to a 28% rise in shot attempts per minute. He is learning to use his physicality to his advantage offensively and he, the Kings, and fantasy managers are reaping the rewards.

Alexis Lafrenière

Ever get something right but for the wrong reasons? My argument for Lafrenière’s hopeful improvements under coach Peter Laviolette was that Laf is a guy who thrived in-and-around the net, and not necessarily playing pitch-and-catch in the offensive zone, so an aggressive forechecking scheme from Laviolette would play to the winger’s strengths. That hasn’t really happened as Laf and Artemi Panarin both have played fast off the transition. Regardless, Laf’s goals, points, and shots per game are all career-highs as he and Panarin have excelled together whether with Vincent Trocheck or Filip Chytil as their centre. The 2020 first overall pick won’t take another big step in the fantasy game until he earns regular top PP minutes for New York, and there’s no telling when that will be, but there have been improvements to his game and it portends very good things to come.

Brandon Hagel

The term “underrated” gets thrown around a lot – I do it too – but there may not be a more underrated forward in the NHL than Hagel. Last season, he managed 2.05 points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 while skating often on Tampa Bay’s top line and top PP unit with Nikita Kucherov. That season, he managed a first-line scoring chance contribution rate (SCC/60) but, again, a lot of that was next to Kucherov. The funny thing is he started this season largely off the top line and as of early November, his SCC/60 was even better than last year’s first-line rate. He has played more on the top line over the last six weeks, but has remained off the top PP unit. Even still, he’s on pace for 25 goals and 70 points. He would be a point-per-game player if the team didn’t decide to use Nick Paul on the power play over Hagel, so there could be even more fantasy goodness to come if that ever changes. It would be nice to see more shots and hits, so maybe multi-cat owners aren’t as thrilled, but the production has been very good considering his role was nuked as he’s a big part of the team’s depth offence.

Shea Theodore

Theodore getting injured was unfortunate because he posted 18 points in 20 games to start the season and had a chance to break his previous career high in both goals (14) and points (52). That he doesn’t hit at all is something that really hurts his multi-cat value, but the production had seen a big jump with his regular role on a heavily-used top PP unit for Vegas while earning more minutes overall. Alex Pietrangelo‘s injury helped Theodore earn more minutes, but he was still close to 23 minutes a night in November with Pietrangelo in the lineup. Theodore is often one of the most active offensive defencemen in the league and he had found another production level with his improved role and usage. Whenever he returns (he was moved to the long-term injured reserve early in December and I haven’t seen updates since), it’ll be a big boost to the lineup and to fantasy rosters because this guy is starting to show why he has the potential to be a 70-point blue liner in this league.

Mike Matheson

There was maybe no defenceman I was higher on in the preseason, relative to most chatter I saw, than Matheson. The argument was pretty simple: he had very good per-minute production rates in Pittsburgh, but didn’t get enough ice time (or power play time) to see big production totals. That changed in his first year with Montreal where he was slotted as the top PP quarterback and given heavy usage. It seemed reasonable enough that trend would continue in 2023-24, and it has as he’s pacing for 13 goals, 56 points, and 32 power play points per 82 games this season. He even has 77 shots and 75 hits+blocks to help the peripheral people out. The PP production is higher than expected, but the EV production is lower, so we’ll call that a wash. It would be nice to see what he could do with a healthy forward group in front of him, but he’s likely going to be one of the better defence values this season when compared to his draft position (especially early in the draft season).

Cam Talbot

When Los Angeles re-signed Vladislav Gavrikov, I got excited about their goalies for 2023-24 because the Gavrikov-Matt Roy pairing was elite at the end of last season for the Kings and have largely continued their excellent play this season (Gavrikov’s injury notwithstanding). My reasoning was that with a great shutdown pair, another good pair with Drew Doughty–Mikey Anderson, and a deep forward group, Cam Talbot (and, by extension, Pheonix Copley) would be in positions to succeed behind a very good defensive team. While Copley has not been good by any measure, Talbot has posted 13 wins in 19 starts with a ,926 save percentage and 2.02 goals against average. Moneypuck has him 14th among qualified netminders by Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes. Playing behind such a good defensive team is a big reason for Talbot’s success, but he’s also been solid otherwise. Talbot had three very good years in a row whether in Calgary or Minnesota before performing poorly in Ottawa (as nearly every goalie has for many years now). It stood to reason that if he could stay healthy, Talbot could be a very worthy late-round goalie to draft. I was only able to get him on one of five of my fantasy rosters, so he wasn’t someone I was 100% in on, but that’s also just how I approach drafting goalies in general. I wish I had more, or taken a firmer stance of Talbot over Copley in the preseason, but it seemed very possible there’d be a goaltending success story in Los Angeles, and Talbot has been exactly that.

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This is my final Rambings before the holiday break so from my family to yours, please enjoy the time off with friends and family as we rest up for the second half, and look forward to the World Junior tournament. Be well, everyone.