Gabriel Vilardi is the most-searched player on Frozen Tools as I write this, which makes sense because he should unquestionably be the top waiver-wire pickup of the past week. In case you haven't been following, Vilardi has five goals and 10 points and a plus-10 over his last four games, which includes three multi-point games. Regression will happen, of course, but the fact that he's on the top line, the first power-play unit, and that he's been taking at least three shots per game over the past six games should mean that his production shouldn't come crashing down.

In less than a week, Vilardi's Yahoo ownership shot up from 18% as of Saturday night to 54% as of Thursday night. Depending on your league, you might still be able to add him for Friday's light night against Boston. The Bruins won't be an easy matchup, but you can ride the hot hand here. After the three-day Christmas break, a juicy matchup with Chicago awaits.

The far-too-early trade analysis shows Winnipeg as the big winner of the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade. I say that because trades take years to play out before a winner should be determined.

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The goal drought is over. Alex Ovechkin scored the game-winning goal in overtime on a power play to give the Capitals a 3-2 decision over the Blue Jackets. Ovechkin entered this game without a goal in his previous 14 games. Over that span he had registered six assists with a minus-8, but he had still averaged nearly four shots per game.

Does the recent slump mean that Father Time has finally caught up to Ovechkin? As you might expect, his advanced stats are lower than expected, in particular his 5.2 SH% and his 5.5 5-on-5 SH%. I'd expect Ovie to finish significantly higher than his current 16-goal pace, although his recent mortal stretch should prove that reaching the all-time goal record is far from a sure thing. He's now 38, so losing power on his shot combined with a fading support cast could all factor into a downward trend.    

The overtime power-play resulted from this Tom Wilson/Elvis Merzlikins fight, also in overtime. Aside from Jordan Binnington, it’s not that often you see a goalie lose his mind like that.

Elvis Merzlikins got into it with Tom Wilson in OT 😳 pic.twitter.com/0LEnmDZz6E

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) December 22, 2023

The Washington Capitals giving it to Elvis Merzlikins after scoring in overtime 😳

All-time photo. pic.twitter.com/HAGuhUyc6v

— Gino Hard (@GinoHard_) December 22, 2023

Ivan Miroshnichenko (a name that was much easier to copy and paste than type) played in his second NHL game. He has averaged less than 10 minutes per game and does not have a point, but he is also only 19 years old and could be a while from making a major impact. Miroshnichenko has 15 points in 27 games in his first AHL season. For more, see his Dobber Prospects profile.

Yegor Chinakhov scored another goal, giving him six goals and 10 points over his last six games. He was not shooting much earlier in the season, but over the past seven games he has averaged three shots per game. With injuries to Patrik Laine and Boone Jenner, the all-Russian line of Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko, and Dmitri Voronkov is helping fill the void for Columbus. Focusing on Chinakhov, his advanced stats clearly show possible regression, including a 20.5 SH% and 13.2 5-on-5 SH%. At just 7% rostered in Yahoo, he might still be worth taking a flier on. The Jackets next have a Saturday home date with the Leafs, who sit in the bottom third of the league in goals allowed.

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I decided to bench Timo Meier on Thursday, since he had gone nine games without a point since returning from a lower-body injury at the beginning of the month. Sure enough, Meier scored a goal on his only shot of the game on Thursday. I'm still not encouraged, as Meier has seen his icetime dwindle to 13:22 and 12:34 over the past two games, while his shot total has dipped to less than three shots per game.

I'm reluctant to drop players that I use a high pick on, so I'll continue to be patient and won't drop him (single-season league). That might be a different story if this were the fantasy playoffs and I didn't have time to wait on a slumping star. Meier is signed for $8.8 million per season until the end of 2030-31, so the Devils had better find a way to make it work. Since joining the Devils, Meier has 26 points in 45 games, which is below a 50-point pace. Not the return on investment they'd hoped for.

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After getting pummeled by Columbus on Tuesday, the Sabres took out their frustrations on the Leafs to the tune of nine goals. Jeff Skinner returned from a brief injury and scored two goals and an assist with five shots. Alex Tuch recorded four assists, Tage Thompson registered three points, and Kyle Okposo scored two goals. Tuch has seven points over his last four games, while Thompson has taken 11 shots over his past two games as he attempts to get back on track after a sluggish start. Okposo has goals in back-to-back games and five goals over his past seven games.

Although Auston Matthews might win the Rocket Richard trophy this season, he has been a streaky scorer. He has now scored at least one goal in each of the last six games he has played in.

Auston Matthews season…

First 2 games: 6 goals
Next 7 games: 1 goal
Next 3 games: 6 goals
Next 9 games: 1 goal
Last 7 games (+1 period): 12 goals https://t.co/iBaRt7atTR

— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) December 22, 2023

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In a back-and-forth battle between two of the top Western Conference teams, Matt Duchene scored the overtime winner and added an assist, giving him five goals and nine points in a five-game point streak. Duchene has been on a "these guys were better earlier in their career" line with Tyler Seguin, which has become a highly effective second line for the Stars. Duchene is also pushing point-per-game territory (29 PTS in 30 GP) despite not playing on the Stars' top power-play, although he's not missing out on that much by receiving 42% of the team's available power-play minutes on a fairly strong second unit.

Spoiler alert: Duchene is featured in this week's Looking Ahead because of his recent hot play and because the Stars have a favorable schedule next week.

Thomas Harley scored a goal and added an assist, giving him three goals and five points in his last four games. Harley is also tied for the goal lead among defensemen with Quinn Hughes and Rasmus Dahlin. He's also mentioned in the upcoming Looking Ahead.

With Jake Oettinger out, I grabbed Scott Wedgewood off the waiver wire in one league. I'm a Canucks fan but I started Wedgewood anyway as an emotional hedge, knowing at the same time that the Canucks are now considered a tough opponent. Wedgewood's three goals allowed on 20 shots is as close to being a really bad start without being one, but he was able to grab his fourth win over his past five games. His season numbers aren't that much worse than Oettinger's, but my expectation with Wedgewood is league-average goaltending with above-average win totals.  

The Frozen Tools Hot List for the Canucks consists of three players: their entire third line of Dakota Joshua, Teddy Blueger, and Conor Garland. Each contributed two points on Thursday, with Joshua scoring his fourth goal over his past five games and Blueger now at six points in his past five games.

Joshua is entering the bangers league conversation, as he has just passed 100 hits in addition to the recent scoring surge. Blueger has a bit of value in leagues that count faceoffs, as he has averaged over 50% in faceoff wins over the past three seasons. Garland should no longer be rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues because of his lack of scoring (just 3 G all season), but he also has five points in his last five games and appears to be settling into a role suited for his skill set.

Time for me to gloat. The Canucks are in first overall! (By points, anyway.)

Say hello to the first-place Vancouver Canucks pic.twitter.com/wG7WxByaWM

— Rob Williams (@RobTheHockeyGuy) December 22, 2023

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I added Marco Rossi on one team this week because the Wild are only one of two teams to play four games this week (Detroit is the other). Rossi delivered on Thursday with a goal, two assists, and 17 penalty minutes for a Gordie Howe hat trick. That effort (the points, anyway) move Rossi up to second place in rookie scoring with 21 points in 31 games.

Kirill Kaprizov also recorded three points, including the overtime winner against Montreal. That gives him six points over his last three games. Kaprizov perhaps hasn't met expectations as a high pick in fantasy drafts, but his recent surge has placed him close to point-per-game territory (30 PTS in 31 GP). He might even be a bit of a buy-low right now, especially since the Wild are playing better under new coach John Hynes.

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It might be time to get on board with Nick Paul again. Paul now has a goal and two assists in back-to-back games, including on Thursday's win against Vegas. Paul was a popular add early in the season when he was added to the Lightning's top power play. However, he was dropped in many leagues after he went through a nine-game stretch without a point in late November/early December. The power-play deployment is still there, and the production has returned. Paul's six power-play goals and nine power-play points are already a career high. Paul is rostered in just 16% of Yahoo leagues.

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With a pair of goals on Thursday, Philip Tomasino has four points in his last four games. Tomasino was a frequent healthy scratch earlier in the season, but it looks like he has found a place again in the Nashville lineup and on the second-unit power play. He was a rookie two seasons ago, but he spent the majority of last season in the AHL.

Also from the Flyers/Predators game:

One of the weirdest goals you'll ever see 😭 pic.twitter.com/iA5EUebDOW

— Gino Hard (@GinoHard_) December 22, 2023

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Don't forget about Nathan MacKinnon in the scoring race. MacKinnon scored four goals and added an assist on Thursday, extending his point streak to 17 games. Over that stretch he has 33 points. MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov are the only players to have hit 50 points so far, while only Kucherov has a higher point-per-game pace than Nate Dogg (1.61 PTS/GP).

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This doesn't look good for Leo Carlsson. As much as the Ducks would like to rest Carlsson as much as possible, he is a hockey player and can't be bubble wrapped.

Leo Carlsson had to be helped off the ice after MacKenzie Weegar fell on his leg 😩 pic.twitter.com/UpYcdsv7KE

— Gino Hard (@GinoHard_) December 22, 2023

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Talk to you tomorrow. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter/X and Threads.